7 ms·

> I know that it's not a single issue. Brexit, Covid-19 and the war with Russia – not one of these issues alone is the cause of our problems. Only one of these

by IMTDb 4y ago

> I know that it's not a single issue. Brexit, Covid-19 and the war with Russia – not one of these issues alone is the cause of our problems. Only one of these issue is UK specific tho; so either your fears extend to the rest of Europe and/or the western world, or you can pinpoint the cause of your anxiety.

hn_throwaway_99 4y ago
Exactly. All of Europe, and the world really, has had to deal with the pain (both economic and in lives) of Covid and the war in Ukraine. But the severity of UK's problems are solely of their own making and are pretty much entirely due to Brexit, and the fallout from Brexit that caused by a string of ill-prepared "leaders". That said, one reason I'm hopeful about the UK is that, compared to US politics, there is much less "tribalism", much more fluidity among how people will vote, and more willingness in your parties to vote for pragmatic policies when strict ideology fails. In the US most voters couldn't conceive of voting for the opposite party, such that most elections in the US come down to turnout and a small sliver of maybe 10ish percent of "swing voters". In the UK, by comparison, after the sheer idiocy of Liz Truss, she was quickly canned, a much more realistic/pragmatic PM was installed (even if one disagrees with his overall political stance), and policies quickly changed. Also, at least in polling, there were huge swings in sentiment against Conservatives and towards Labour because Conservatives were (correctly in my opinion) being blamed for their massive fuckup. I can't see the equivalent happening in the US.
- ChuckNorris89 4y ago
  >But the severity of UK's problems are solely of their own making and are pretty much entirely due to Brexit, and the fallout from Brexit that caused by a string of ill-prepared "leaders". The leaders weren't just I'll prepared with Brexit, they head-on despite the consequences, since they were chasing the "EU-bad" popularity votes by pointing at the EU as the scapegoat for the UKs own self inflicted internal issues. Now the leaders have no more outside scapegoats other than COVID and Putin.
  - rsynnott 4y ago
    > The leaders weren't just I'll prepared with Brexit, they head-on despite the consequences Well, arguably, they kind off got carried away by the thing they created; Brexiters pre-referendum were usually advocating some sort of soft Brexit (albeit often with conflicting demands which made it impossible; "single market access but we don't need to follow European rules" sort of thing), then there was May's Brexit which looked 'hard' at the time but soft compared to what actually happened, then Boris's Brexit, and then Truss wanted to make it _worse_. All of these things were worse than being in the EU, but the degree of badness intensified as the leaders of the movement were captured by the movement itself.
    - ChuckNorris89 4y ago
      >but the degree of badness intensified as the leaders of the movement were captured by the movement itself Well yeah, the population voted to jump off a cliff, and the leaders (Boris) cheered them on and promised them the most spectacular cliff jump ever just to shove it to the EU. In a way this is populist democracy in action and is a lesson for future generations.
    - ClumsyPilot 4y ago
      Its worse then that, Voris was elected on his 'over ready deal', withing 1 year he decided to break the deal he hinself signed because he didnt like it. You couldn't make it up!!
- vladvasiliu 4y ago
  I'm not familiar with the details of UK's issues, but I doubt that the subject at hand, food price inflation, can really be put on the back of Brexit. Pretty much all the Euro Area (of which the UK was not a part of) sees similar numbers. According to [0], it was at 15.5% in October, from 13.3 in September. https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/food-inflation https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/food-inflation
  - hn_throwaway_99 4y ago
    To be clear, I wholeheartedly agree. I just want to emphasize that, to the degree that UK's overall problems are worse that the EU's, Brexit is largely to blame. And this is taking into account some pretty boneheaded things that EU countries did, like Germany deciding to phase out nuclear in 2011.
    - mike_hearn 4y ago
      To what degree are they worse than the EU's? You're making a very slippery argument here. You started by asserting that things are worse in the UK than elsewhere in Europe and this is due to Brexit, but you didn't name any specific way in which things are worse. So you were called out on it because this discussion is about a single data point - food price inflation - which is not different to elsewhere. Now you're saying well no, but if things were worse then it'd be the fault of Brexit. HN discussions on anything UK related seem to always be like this nowadays. Intellectual curiousity is dead, killed by motivated reasoning. "Things are worse, I won't say what, but if anything is worse, then it's clearly Brexit and not anything else". That's not a valid argument, it's not even an attempt to lay the groundwork for an argument. We get it - you wish no country ever left the EU - but if you want to blame leaving then you need to show a causal relation, not simply assert that the EU can only ever make things better in any conceivable capacity.
      - hn_throwaway_99 4y ago
        The UK CPI increase year-over-year was 11.1% in October [1]. The France CPI increase was 6.2% for the same period [2]. That is a huge difference for similar developed economies. 1. https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/october2022#:~:text=a%20year%20earlier.-,The%20Consumer%20Prices%20Index%20(CPI)%20rose%20by%2011.1%25%20in,which%20began%20in%20January%201997 https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bull.... 2. https://www.rateinflation.com/inflation-rate/france-inflation-rate/#:~:text=Current%20France%20inflation%20rate&text=The%20Consumer%20Price%20Index%20for,to%20October%202022%20was%201.03%25 https://www.rateinflation.com/inflation-rate/france-inflatio....
racktash 4y ago
I think the handling of Covid-19 (and there plenty of varied, legitimate criticisms to be made about that) is definitely a UK-specific issue. Not that the mistakes made by the UK weren't also made by other governments, of course. As for fears for the rest of Europe – I don't doubt that the rest of Europe has problems. My worries are confined to the UK because that's where I live. (To be clear, this isn't me saying I don't care about other countries. But there's only so many problems a person can concern themselves with.) I think the country could very well cease to exist unless we figure a lot of problems out. The three reasons I listed are the ones that people keep citing. I actually suspect that the UK's problems are longer term and more fundamental. I don't think it's related to either party, either. The Conservative Party of the last few years has not been good for the country, but I'm not convinced Labour will be able to fix our deep, societal problems, either.
- smhg 4y ago
  > I think the country could very well cease to exist Do you mean something like Scotland going their own way? Or something more dramatic (think revolution)?
  - racktash 4y ago
    > Do you mean something like Scotland going there own way? Yes, exactly this – the four countries of the UK going their own way and the UK ceasing to be. (It's my personal opinion – people will of course have their own take, and good reasons for having their views – that such a happening would be a devastating event.)
O__________O 4y ago
Impact of Covid was likely specific though, since it’s my understanding per capita that UK spent significantly more money on Covid than other European countries in part because they have spent significantly less per capita on healthcare for at least the last decade. Source: https://www.ft.com/content/f752a1ad-4a23-408f-a549-4909974c6a2c https://www.ft.com/content/f752a1ad-4a23-408f-a549-4909974c6...
- cjbgkagh 4y ago
  Both main parties participate in graft, but the Tories were in power so they we’re the ones doing it this time. Crazy lucrative contracts were handed out to party members, family of party members, and donors.

by IMTDb 4y ago

hn_throwaway_99 4y ago

Exactly. All of Europe, and the world really, has had to deal with the pain (both economic and in lives) of Covid and the war in Ukraine. But the severity of UK's problems are solely of their own making and are pretty much entirely due to Brexit, and the fallout from Brexit that caused by a string of ill-prepared "leaders". That said, one reason I'm hopeful about the UK is that, compared to US politics, there is much less "tribalism", much more fluidity among how people will vote, and more willingness in your parties to vote for pragmatic policies when strict ideology fails. In the US most voters couldn't conceive of voting for the opposite party, such that most elections in the US come down to turnout and a small sliver of maybe 10ish percent of "swing voters". In the UK, by comparison, after the sheer idiocy of Liz Truss, she was quickly canned, a much more realistic/pragmatic PM was installed (even if one disagrees with his overall political stance), and policies quickly changed. Also, at least in polling, there were huge swings in sentiment against Conservatives and towards Labour because Conservatives were (correctly in my opinion) being blamed for their massive fuckup. I can't see the equivalent happening in the US.

ChuckNorris89 4y ago
>But the severity of UK's problems are solely of their own making and are pretty much entirely due to Brexit, and the fallout from Brexit that caused by a string of ill-prepared "leaders". The leaders weren't just I'll prepared with Brexit, they head-on despite the consequences, since they were chasing the "EU-bad" popularity votes by pointing at the EU as the scapegoat for the UKs own self inflicted internal issues. Now the leaders have no more outside scapegoats other than COVID and Putin.
- rsynnott 4y ago
  > The leaders weren't just I'll prepared with Brexit, they head-on despite the consequences Well, arguably, they kind off got carried away by the thing they created; Brexiters pre-referendum were usually advocating some sort of soft Brexit (albeit often with conflicting demands which made it impossible; "single market access but we don't need to follow European rules" sort of thing), then there was May's Brexit which looked 'hard' at the time but soft compared to what actually happened, then Boris's Brexit, and then Truss wanted to make it _worse_. All of these things were worse than being in the EU, but the degree of badness intensified as the leaders of the movement were captured by the movement itself.
  - ChuckNorris89 4y ago
    >but the degree of badness intensified as the leaders of the movement were captured by the movement itself Well yeah, the population voted to jump off a cliff, and the leaders (Boris) cheered them on and promised them the most spectacular cliff jump ever just to shove it to the EU. In a way this is populist democracy in action and is a lesson for future generations.
  - ClumsyPilot 4y ago
    Its worse then that, Voris was elected on his 'over ready deal', withing 1 year he decided to break the deal he hinself signed because he didnt like it. You couldn't make it up!!
vladvasiliu 4y ago
I'm not familiar with the details of UK's issues, but I doubt that the subject at hand, food price inflation, can really be put on the back of Brexit. Pretty much all the Euro Area (of which the UK was not a part of) sees similar numbers. According to [0], it was at 15.5% in October, from 13.3 in September. https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/food-inflation https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/food-inflation
- hn_throwaway_99 4y ago
  To be clear, I wholeheartedly agree. I just want to emphasize that, to the degree that UK's overall problems are worse that the EU's, Brexit is largely to blame. And this is taking into account some pretty boneheaded things that EU countries did, like Germany deciding to phase out nuclear in 2011.
  - mike_hearn 4y ago
    To what degree are they worse than the EU's? You're making a very slippery argument here. You started by asserting that things are worse in the UK than elsewhere in Europe and this is due to Brexit, but you didn't name any specific way in which things are worse. So you were called out on it because this discussion is about a single data point - food price inflation - which is not different to elsewhere. Now you're saying well no, but if things were worse then it'd be the fault of Brexit. HN discussions on anything UK related seem to always be like this nowadays. Intellectual curiousity is dead, killed by motivated reasoning. "Things are worse, I won't say what, but if anything is worse, then it's clearly Brexit and not anything else". That's not a valid argument, it's not even an attempt to lay the groundwork for an argument. We get it - you wish no country ever left the EU - but if you want to blame leaving then you need to show a causal relation, not simply assert that the EU can only ever make things better in any conceivable capacity.
    - hn_throwaway_99 4y ago
      The UK CPI increase year-over-year was 11.1% in October [1]. The France CPI increase was 6.2% for the same period [2]. That is a huge difference for similar developed economies. 1. https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/october2022#:~:text=a%20year%20earlier.-,The%20Consumer%20Prices%20Index%20(CPI)%20rose%20by%2011.1%25%20in,which%20began%20in%20January%201997 https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bull.... 2. https://www.rateinflation.com/inflation-rate/france-inflation-rate/#:~:text=Current%20France%20inflation%20rate&text=The%20Consumer%20Price%20Index%20for,to%20October%202022%20was%201.03%25 https://www.rateinflation.com/inflation-rate/france-inflatio....

racktash 4y ago

I think the handling of Covid-19 (and there plenty of varied, legitimate criticisms to be made about that) is definitely a UK-specific issue. Not that the mistakes made by the UK weren't also made by other governments, of course. As for fears for the rest of Europe – I don't doubt that the rest of Europe has problems. My worries are confined to the UK because that's where I live. (To be clear, this isn't me saying I don't care about other countries. But there's only so many problems a person can concern themselves with.) I think the country could very well cease to exist unless we figure a lot of problems out. The three reasons I listed are the ones that people keep citing. I actually suspect that the UK's problems are longer term and more fundamental. I don't think it's related to either party, either. The Conservative Party of the last few years has not been good for the country, but I'm not convinced Labour will be able to fix our deep, societal problems, either.

smhg 4y ago
> I think the country could very well cease to exist Do you mean something like Scotland going their own way? Or something more dramatic (think revolution)?
- racktash 4y ago
  > Do you mean something like Scotland going there own way? Yes, exactly this – the four countries of the UK going their own way and the UK ceasing to be. (It's my personal opinion – people will of course have their own take, and good reasons for having their views – that such a happening would be a devastating event.)

O__________O 4y ago

Impact of Covid was likely specific though, since it’s my understanding per capita that UK spent significantly more money on Covid than other European countries in part because they have spent significantly less per capita on healthcare for at least the last decade. Source: https://www.ft.com/content/f752a1ad-4a23-408f-a549-4909974c6a2c https://www.ft.com/content/f752a1ad-4a23-408f-a549-4909974c6...

cjbgkagh 4y ago
Both main parties participate in graft, but the Tories were in power so they we’re the ones doing it this time. Crazy lucrative contracts were handed out to party members, family of party members, and donors.