4 ms·

> I'd say that people question the potential of any new technology. Sure, but exaggerating the potential is much more common. Look at where people in the 50's

by bnralt 4y ago

> I'd say that people question the potential of any new technology. Sure, but exaggerating the potential is much more common. Look at where people in the 50's thought we would be in terms of space or personal flying devices. This stems from both overestimating the technological capabilities, overestimating the usefulness if we were able to succeed, and failing to see the non-technological limitations. Flight is actually a good example of the last one. For instance, the problem with Edisons prediction that people would fly to another city for a couple of hours after breakfast and be back by lunch isn't that technology isn't advanced enough. But the costs are prohibitive, the airports are often far from the city center, and even when you get to the airport it takes a couple of hours to actually get into the air. Planes were hot, so Edison thought travelers "will largely scorn such earth crawling." But earth crawling, even long distance, is still very useful, hence the desire to invest in things like high speed rail. [1] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/thomas-edisons-predictions-spot-on/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/thomas-edisons-predictions-spot...

njarboe 4y ago
It is very hard to predict the path of an S-curve. If you don't estimate when it takes off and when it slows down just right you will be way off on your view of what will happen.
mncharity 4y ago
Crafting arguments of the form "predicting the future is hard, as shown by this past attempt failing" can be challenging. Understanding the past, guessing at the contingency of development paths, etc. I recall such a talk by someone respected which, IIRC, included dissing the Ladies's Home Journal 1901 "What May Happen in the Next Hundred Years"'s[1] prediction "The horse will have become practically extinct." with a dismissive "The aren't!". Seeming underappreciating the time's massive horse footprint and diversity, now vanished and diminished. > But the costs are prohibitive, [...] even when you get to the airport it takes a couple of hours to actually get into the air. I wonder how predictions might deal with the diversity of timelines? And thus include the fork two decades back, where 9/11 didn't happen, the airline industry remained competitive, and I can still do a Boston-to-NYC short sprint from curb, across a narrow terminal, down the ramp, and squeeze through a closing airliner door, with no staff interaction beyond their shouting "run faster!". And everyone pays cash to stewardesses. And no ids (after all, showing papers to travel is an un-American Soviet thing). There's a lot of timeline diversity. > [it] isn't that technology isn't advanced enough [...] the airports are often far from the city center I wonder if there's a timeline where Robert Moses loved rail, smashed a straight network of lines across Long Island, and now NYC-anywhere to JFK is minutes. In contrast, there's the timeline where the massive and competitive subway construction of Edison's life, stalled out shortly after his death, and remained dead for a century. Perhaps the medieval warrens of European cities, persisting but for revolutions until aerial mass bombardment, might have been a hint. But new york was still doing massive "tear down and build new". Perhaps there's a timeline where a cold war nuclear strike on nyc cleared the way for greater development, as with the city fires of old. It does emphasize the contingency of history and thus progress, but it doesn't seem unreasonable that Edison didn't expect the trip from still-existing 1910-ish apartments in Manhattan, out to a "opened a generation after his death" Idlewild airport, to remain largely unchanged for a century. If you travel around Xmass, the train you catch might have a just-after-his-death 1932 vintage car. Current US journalism about China repeatedly reminds me of European writing from warrens about Edison's America. Perhaps we need some expanded conceptual vocabulary for sketching possible futures? [1] https://www.personal.psu.edu/staff/t/w/twa101/whatmayhappen.pdf https://www.personal.psu.edu/staff/t/w/twa101/whatmayhappen.... https://www.mentalfloss.com/article/58851/fact-check-26-ladies-home-journal-predictions-2001-1901 https://www.mentalfloss.com/article/58851/fact-check-26-ladi...

by bnralt 4y ago

njarboe 4y ago

It is very hard to predict the path of an S-curve. If you don't estimate when it takes off and when it slows down just right you will be way off on your view of what will happen.

mncharity 4y ago

Crafting arguments of the form "predicting the future is hard, as shown by this past attempt failing" can be challenging. Understanding the past, guessing at the contingency of development paths, etc. I recall such a talk by someone respected which, IIRC, included dissing the Ladies's Home Journal 1901 "What May Happen in the Next Hundred Years"'s[1] prediction "The horse will have become practically extinct." with a dismissive "The aren't!". Seeming underappreciating the time's massive horse footprint and diversity, now vanished and diminished. > But the costs are prohibitive, [...] even when you get to the airport it takes a couple of hours to actually get into the air. I wonder how predictions might deal with the diversity of timelines? And thus include the fork two decades back, where 9/11 didn't happen, the airline industry remained competitive, and I can still do a Boston-to-NYC short sprint from curb, across a narrow terminal, down the ramp, and squeeze through a closing airliner door, with no staff interaction beyond their shouting "run faster!". And everyone pays cash to stewardesses. And no ids (after all, showing papers to travel is an un-American Soviet thing). There's a lot of timeline diversity. > [it] isn't that technology isn't advanced enough [...] the airports are often far from the city center I wonder if there's a timeline where Robert Moses loved rail, smashed a straight network of lines across Long Island, and now NYC-anywhere to JFK is minutes. In contrast, there's the timeline where the massive and competitive subway construction of Edison's life, stalled out shortly after his death, and remained dead for a century. Perhaps the medieval warrens of European cities, persisting but for revolutions until aerial mass bombardment, might have been a hint. But new york was still doing massive "tear down and build new". Perhaps there's a timeline where a cold war nuclear strike on nyc cleared the way for greater development, as with the city fires of old. It does emphasize the contingency of history and thus progress, but it doesn't seem unreasonable that Edison didn't expect the trip from still-existing 1910-ish apartments in Manhattan, out to a "opened a generation after his death" Idlewild airport, to remain largely unchanged for a century. If you travel around Xmass, the train you catch might have a just-after-his-death 1932 vintage car. Current US journalism about China repeatedly reminds me of European writing from warrens about Edison's America. Perhaps we need some expanded conceptual vocabulary for sketching possible futures? [1] https://www.personal.psu.edu/staff/t/w/twa101/whatmayhappen.pdf https://www.personal.psu.edu/staff/t/w/twa101/whatmayhappen.... https://www.mentalfloss.com/article/58851/fact-check-26-ladies-home-journal-predictions-2001-1901 https://www.mentalfloss.com/article/58851/fact-check-26-ladi...