3 ms·

> I’m not saying there’s a 100% chance of that; no one is saying that; but it’s greater than it was. Okay, but going from 0% to 0.0001% is also "greater than i

> I’m not saying there’s a 100% chance of that; no one is saying that; but it’s greater than it was. Okay, but going from 0% to 0.0001% is also "greater than it was". What are you saying? Is it 90%, 50%, 20%, 10%, 1%?

wokwokwok 4y ago
If you want odds visit a betting site. Twitter has graduated from “don’t believe it’s plausible that Twitter will fail” to “anecdotally things seem to going badly” to “empirical evidence of service issues and mismanagement”. I don’t care what you believe, those are the facts, right now. I think then next month will give us a reasonable ability to forecast as we get spikes in usage during the World Cup and we see if the service goes down and if people keep using it. Until then… who knows? More than 0.001%; that’s just random variance. Don’t be ridiculous. I’m not waving my hands and saying stupid meaningless shit like 0.0001 > 0 so there’s some meaningless increase in the chance Twitter will fail. I’m saying, there is a tangible increase in the possibility of failure, and already a concrete notable decrease in value of the entire platform.
- raydev 4y ago
  I spend hours a day on Twitter, and today has been by far the best in the few weeks. Things deteriorated temporarily but I’m missing where the concrete decrease in value is.
  - ModernMech 4y ago
    Twitter is still having trouble serving Tweets. I'm getting "Tweet unavailable" often enough that's it's becoming a noticeable problem.
philipov 4y ago
0.0001% == 0% The only operable probabilities are "Never", "Sometimes", and "Always". Since Musk took over, the chance of imminent nonrecoverable catastrophe has gone from "No" to "Maybe".
- luckylion 4y ago
  "No", "Maybe", "Probably", "Yes"? That would put the "Maybe" at ~25% for "imminent nonrecoverable catastrophe"?

3 ms·

> I’m not saying there’s a 100% chance of that; no one is saying that; but it’s greater than it was. Okay, but going from 0% to 0.0001% is also "greater than i

by luckylion 4y ago

wokwokwok 4y ago
If you want odds visit a betting site. Twitter has graduated from “don’t believe it’s plausible that Twitter will fail” to “anecdotally things seem to going badly” to “empirical evidence of service issues and mismanagement”. I don’t care what you believe, those are the facts, right now. I think then next month will give us a reasonable ability to forecast as we get spikes in usage during the World Cup and we see if the service goes down and if people keep using it. Until then… who knows? More than 0.001%; that’s just random variance. Don’t be ridiculous. I’m not waving my hands and saying stupid meaningless shit like 0.0001 > 0 so there’s some meaningless increase in the chance Twitter will fail. I’m saying, there is a tangible increase in the possibility of failure, and already a concrete notable decrease in value of the entire platform.
- raydev 4y ago
  I spend hours a day on Twitter, and today has been by far the best in the few weeks. Things deteriorated temporarily but I’m missing where the concrete decrease in value is.
  - ModernMech 4y ago
    Twitter is still having trouble serving Tweets. I'm getting "Tweet unavailable" often enough that's it's becoming a noticeable problem.
philipov 4y ago
0.0001% == 0% The only operable probabilities are "Never", "Sometimes", and "Always". Since Musk took over, the chance of imminent nonrecoverable catastrophe has gone from "No" to "Maybe".
- luckylion 4y ago
  "No", "Maybe", "Probably", "Yes"? That would put the "Maybe" at ~25% for "imminent nonrecoverable catastrophe"?