He has a book about it. The reason the questions tend to be less exciting is that they need to be pretty well defined so that there is no question as to whether

He has a book about it. The reason the questions tend to be less exciting is that they need to be pretty well defined so that there is no question as to whether the event in question happened or not. So, "what could surprise us next year" would need to be reformulated to something more specific. "What are the chances GDP will grow 5% over the next 12 months?". "What are the chances the US launches a missile intended to hit mainland china?".