Yes, commenters should read the book (Superforcasting). The forecasters in The Good Judgment Project are assessed on their self-assigned confidence in their pre

Yes, commenters should read the book (Superforcasting). The forecasters in The Good Judgment Project are assessed on their self-assigned confidence in their prediction and how soon they can make their prediction. Some people seem to be provably better at this than others, they are Superforcasters. What was most useful to me in the book was the notion of being more specific and testable when thinking about the future. I think the better you are at predicting the future (a delta between you and everyone else, not 100% accuracy, which is impossible) the better you are at understanding the world and the better you can plan ahead.