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The whole business of superforecasting is nice but doesn't seem to be the revolution some have promoted it as. The questions are kinda boring and the prediction
by civilized 4y ago
The whole business of superforecasting is nice but doesn't seem to be the revolution some have promoted it as. The questions are kinda boring and the predictions seem very middle-of-the-road conventional wisdom, what you'd expect after a few well-chosen Google searches for background information.
For example, their GDP growth prediction is centered around "the recent average, maybe a little less", which makes sense given headwinds from inflation and central bank policy. "Will Putin use nukes" is answered "very unlikely, but maybe?" Etc.
If nothing else, though, it has illuminated for me that asking interesting questions about the future is not easy. Could we do better than a bunch of questions that can be answered with some variation of "past trends will probably continue"?
What could surprise us next year?
- danielmarkbruce 4y agoHe has a book about it. The reason the questions tend to be less exciting is that they need to be pretty well defined so that there is no question as to whether the event in question happened or not. So, "what could surprise us next year" would need to be reformulated to something more specific. "What are the chances GDP will grow 5% over the next 12 months?". "What are the chances the US launches a missile intended to hit mainland china?".
- TheOtherHobbes 4y agoConsidering that since 2020 we've had Covid, an attempted insurrection, and an unexpected(ish) war, what are the odds that something dramatic and completely unexpected will happen next year? I'm not expecting a number. Just pointing out that to date "past trends will probably continue" has been absolutely wrong for this decade.
- calvinmorrison 4y agoI would say a seasonal flu and ongoing election integrity issues seem to be nothing but rote in the last two decade
- civilized 4y agoI agree. Stuff like this was coming, only a matter of time (not that I predicted the timing, for sure). Ukraine war is the only thing that kinda surprised me. But given that so many people expected Russia to trounce Ukraine in an invasion, maybe it makes sense that Putin saw an opening.
- tambourine_man 4y ago> What could surprise us next year? Hopefully, nothing. I’m really tired of living in a historical moment. I was a teenager in the 90s and was angry with the dullness of the world back then. I’m now convinced that revolutions are for those under 25.