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Prediction markets liquidity is tiny, thus their predictions have very little "skin in the game". This was made very clear during a couple of big world events
by 323 4y ago
Prediction markets liquidity is tiny, thus their predictions have very little "skin in the game".
This was made very clear during a couple of big world events (stuff like major elections, ...), where I was watching simultaneously financial markets, dedicated event betting markets and prediction markets. Conclusion was that financial markets is where the real super-forecasters work.
- Tenoke 4y agoSure but often there isn't an obvious financial market to check. Prediction markets still update faster and more accurately than say the news or pundits. Hopefully they stop being hindered and become more popular so liquidity increases though. It'd be much more useful for everyone if a portion of sports and other gambling spending can be redirected towards them.
- 323 4y ago> It'd be much more useful for everyone if a portion of sports and other gambling spending can be redirected towards them. The problem is that prediction markets is typically about very rare stuff, that happens once or twice a year. You typical sports punter doesn't have the patience for this kind of long bets. > Hopefully they stop being hindered and become more popular so liquidity increases though That's just a US problem (as always). In the rest of the world there are no major blocks to create prediction markets. In some form, they already exist - BetFair has election betting, ...