The incorrect 3 were related to the Omicron variant -- not bad for armchair* analysis! * My take from reading Tetlock's book is that superforecasting is essent

The incorrect 3 were related to the Omicron variant -- not bad for armchair* analysis! * My take from reading Tetlock's book is that superforecasting is essentially painstaking analysis by laypersons based on common rationality followed through diligently. If among the only things this process fails to predict is mutations then this is actually very encouraging.