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I read Tetlock's Expert Political Judgement many years ago, and though I can't guarantee my memory of it, I think one upshot of some pretty detailed empirical w
by aussiesnack 4y ago
I read Tetlock's Expert Political Judgement many years ago, and though I can't guarantee my memory of it, I think one upshot of some pretty detailed empirical work was that no-one's any good at predicting political and economic futures. Foxes (in Isiah Berlin's sense, ie. who approach problems without an overarching conceptual framework) were marginally better than Hedgehogs (who have a central big idea), but no-one was up to much.
- nonrandomstring 4y agoI think the trick, if there is one beyond luck, involves the ability to draw conspicuous attention to the occasion one is "right", while distracting from the all the other off-target pronouncements.
- aussiesnack 4y agoQuite. Also drawing heavily on the general population's limitless capacity for misunderstanding probability.