4 ms·

ukraine itself (or perhaps a close intelligence ally like lithuania), with its constant pressuring of the west to escalate the conflict (including calls for di

ukraine itself (or perhaps a close intelligence ally like lithuania), with its constant pressuring of the west to escalate the conflict (including calls for direct strikes on russia), seems like the most likely candidate. there were backchannel efforts between germany and russia to open negotiations prior to the sabotage -- removing NS gas from the equation entirely for germany takes some of the wind out of those sails. besides this we have seen a great deal of ukrainian sabotage of other russian assets and infrastructure in recent months.

MichaelCollins 4y ago
Ukraine had the strongest motive, but the least technical ability (to do this specifically) of all the suspects, including Russia.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- Gibbon1 4y ago
  I think Ukraine isn't as backwards as people assume. And also has legal justification since they are at war with Russia. A crass motive is blowing up a pipeline that wasn't being used forces Russia to devote military resources to protect their oil and gas infrastructure elsewhere.
  - ASalazarMX 4y ago
    Western support of Ukraine is supposedly conditioned to defense of their own territory, not attacking Russian territory. This would be outside of that condition, so if they did it, it's best to keep it under. It's more telling if they don't say, that would mean a Russian or Russian-allied operation is unlikely, because there is no political cost for shaming them even more.
    - nyolfen 4y ago
      NS was not on russian territory, it was sabotaged in international waters just a few km outside of danish territory
      - ASalazarMX 4y ago
        Still outside of Ukrainian territory, the condition for NATO support. And it only transports gas from Russia to Germany, with the winter approaching. Even more telling, the US statement in reaction to this was "a tremendous opportunity to once and for all remove the dependence on Russian energy".
        Gibbon1 4y ago
        I think western weapons come with those conditions for now. But Ukraine is free to attack targets inside/outside of Russia with their own stuff.
        nyolfen 4y ago
        hmm, maybe someone should tell nato about the assassination attempt on alexander dugin inside russia, the suicide bomb attack on russian infrastructure, the helicopter raids into russian territory, etc
- nyolfen 4y ago
  i don't think this attack is really as sophisticated as you seem to; the pipeline was about 80-100m underwater -- the ukrainians have (or had) oil platforms in the black sea which would require divers capable of operating at such depths. getting away with it is definitely impressive though.
tsimionescu 4y ago
Possible, though that would require sending Ukrainian ships and agents a very very far way away. I don't think a clandestine Ukrainian operation on the other side of Europe is very likely in the middle of a war on their own territory.
- nyolfen 4y ago
  spiegel posted this a few months ago, claiming that the CIA warned the germans that the russians had intelligence that the ukrainians were planning to sabotage NS: https://archive.ph/v7FL4 https://archive.ph/v7FL4 >The Germans were warned in summer by the CIA about a possible attack scenario on the Nord Stream pipelines. U.S. intelligence claimed to have intercepted Russian communications in which concerns were expressed about possible Ukrainian attacks on Western infrastructure. The Ukrainians allegedly tried to rent a boat in Sweden for this purpose. The CIA did not consider the scenario of a Ukrainian attack to be very credible, but the mere fact that the possibility of an attack on Western infrastructure was mentioned by the Russian side prompted the Americans to warn the Germans about the scenario.
  - kjeetgill 4y ago
    If that's the case, why would Russia accuse the UK?
    - selivanovp 4y ago
      UK was the most active one in supplying and teaching Ukraine to use sea drones for sabotage. Recent attack on Sevastopol and other Russian ports were done by these drones. UK is also known to operate submersible sabotage drones. So it’s basically the moat probable scenario, that UK provided ships, drones and explosives, and some Ukrainian pressed the button.
  - Isinlor 4y ago
    Sounds like extremely reliable Chinese whispers. He said that she said that he heard that she said that he was planning to do it. Obviously it was him!
Mikeb85 4y ago

MichaelCollins 4y ago

Ukraine had the strongest motive, but the least technical ability (to do this specifically) of all the suspects, including Russia.

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
Gibbon1 4y ago
I think Ukraine isn't as backwards as people assume. And also has legal justification since they are at war with Russia. A crass motive is blowing up a pipeline that wasn't being used forces Russia to devote military resources to protect their oil and gas infrastructure elsewhere.
- ASalazarMX 4y ago
  Western support of Ukraine is supposedly conditioned to defense of their own territory, not attacking Russian territory. This would be outside of that condition, so if they did it, it's best to keep it under. It's more telling if they don't say, that would mean a Russian or Russian-allied operation is unlikely, because there is no political cost for shaming them even more.
  - nyolfen 4y ago
    NS was not on russian territory, it was sabotaged in international waters just a few km outside of danish territory
    - ASalazarMX 4y ago
      Still outside of Ukrainian territory, the condition for NATO support. And it only transports gas from Russia to Germany, with the winter approaching. Even more telling, the US statement in reaction to this was "a tremendous opportunity to once and for all remove the dependence on Russian energy".
      - Gibbon1 4y ago
        I think western weapons come with those conditions for now. But Ukraine is free to attack targets inside/outside of Russia with their own stuff.
      - nyolfen 4y ago
        hmm, maybe someone should tell nato about the assassination attempt on alexander dugin inside russia, the suicide bomb attack on russian infrastructure, the helicopter raids into russian territory, etc
nyolfen 4y ago
i don't think this attack is really as sophisticated as you seem to; the pipeline was about 80-100m underwater -- the ukrainians have (or had) oil platforms in the black sea which would require divers capable of operating at such depths. getting away with it is definitely impressive though.

tsimionescu 4y ago

Possible, though that would require sending Ukrainian ships and agents a very very far way away. I don't think a clandestine Ukrainian operation on the other side of Europe is very likely in the middle of a war on their own territory.

nyolfen 4y ago
spiegel posted this a few months ago, claiming that the CIA warned the germans that the russians had intelligence that the ukrainians were planning to sabotage NS: https://archive.ph/v7FL4 https://archive.ph/v7FL4 >The Germans were warned in summer by the CIA about a possible attack scenario on the Nord Stream pipelines. U.S. intelligence claimed to have intercepted Russian communications in which concerns were expressed about possible Ukrainian attacks on Western infrastructure. The Ukrainians allegedly tried to rent a boat in Sweden for this purpose. The CIA did not consider the scenario of a Ukrainian attack to be very credible, but the mere fact that the possibility of an attack on Western infrastructure was mentioned by the Russian side prompted the Americans to warn the Germans about the scenario.
- kjeetgill 4y ago
  If that's the case, why would Russia accuse the UK?
  - selivanovp 4y ago
    UK was the most active one in supplying and teaching Ukraine to use sea drones for sabotage. Recent attack on Sevastopol and other Russian ports were done by these drones. UK is also known to operate submersible sabotage drones. So it’s basically the moat probable scenario, that UK provided ships, drones and explosives, and some Ukrainian pressed the button.
- Isinlor 4y ago
  Sounds like extremely reliable Chinese whispers. He said that she said that he heard that she said that he was planning to do it. Obviously it was him!

Mikeb85 4y ago