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What’s naive is entertaining for a second the notion that Russia would blow up its own 10 billion dollar pipeline. Not only does it make NO economic sense, stra

What’s naive is entertaining for a second the notion that Russia would blow up its own 10 billion dollar pipeline. Not only does it make NO economic sense, strategically it makes Germany less dependent on Russia, which is a bad thing for Russia. Not to mention the US explicitly threatened to “end” Nordstream as the German head of state was standing right next to Biden. Such a coincidence that the pipeline was blown up as Germany and Russia were negotiating resuming operations.

hatch_q 4y ago
You're missing the big picture. After Siemens gave Canadian export license that allows Gazprom to "repair" the turbines, there were no more excuses for Gazprom to not respect contractual obligation to provide gas through the pipeline. In short, Gazprom was facing enormous penalties for not providing gas. I am not saying Gazprom did it, but they had a reason and means (using a PIG) to do it.
- mhermher 4y ago
  Europe is sanctioning the hell out of Russia, and yet Gazprom would pay huge penalties on violating a contract. If anything this story shows why it's unlikely they blew up the pipeline. After that whole legalese theater, they just decided to turn off the tap. As simple as that. And just as simple to refuse to pay any fees.
  - cycomanic 4y ago
    Things are not so easy, just yesterday there was an article about the financial crises caused by a Korean state not honouring their bond promises. If Gazprom would simply turn off the gas and say f* off to the fines, they would signal to ask buyers that they are willing to disregard contracts for political reasons. This would significantly undermine confidence in doing business with them, and likely lower prices people would pay for their gas.
    - MichaelCollins 4y ago
      Korea isn't in a war (their northern neighbor notwithstanding). They are still ostensibly abiding by the rule of law, so of course they're not going to merely give the finger to anybody who tries to fine them. Or maybe those courts which could somehow force Russia to pay fines for turning off gas should force Russia to pay fines for invading Ukraine.
zzleeper 4y ago
Yes it does. Russia's goals was to force Europe's hand (Germany mostly) to certify NS2. First, in Aug. Russia cuts NS1 to 20% citing supposed repairs: "Gazprom in July cut gas deliveries via NS1 to 20% of maximum capacity, citing turbine repair delays that it blamed on Western sanctions against Russia because of the war." There, they say "oh hey but look you have NS2 so why don't you certify it". Then, they turned it off completely: "The state-controlled firm disclosed Friday flows on NS1 would be closed from Aug. 31 to Sept. 2 during scheduled maintenance on its only currently operating compressor at a key station, Portovaya CS." Again, they say "well you can always use NS2". But when Europe didn't bite the bullet and surrender to their demands, they made it even more obvious that the only route for gas would be NS2, by blowing NS1. If this was UK or US sabotage, they would have blown NS2 completely, while possibly leaving NS1 alone. Links: https://www.naturalgasintel.com/russias-gazprom-plans-3-day-halt-of-ns1-natural-gas-flows-to-europe/ https://www.naturalgasintel.com/russias-gazprom-plans-3-day-... https://www.naturalgasintel.com/russias-planned-shutdown-of-ns1-pipeline-sends-european-natural-gas-prices-soaring-bolsters-henry-hub/ https://www.naturalgasintel.com/russias-planned-shutdown-of-...
- foverzar 4y ago
  > they made it even more obvious that the only route for gas would be NS2, by blowing NS1. Except NS2 had also exploded. Even if it didn't, can you explain the purpose of this all? What is there to be gained? NS1 had bigger capacity, which meant more money.
  - _kbh_ 4y ago
    > Except NS2 had also exploded. Except it didn't there was a single pipe of NS2 left untouched, if you think it was the US why did they leave a single pipe for Russia to use as leverage to certify NS2?.
    - foverzar 4y ago
      Ok, 50% of NS2 had exploded, and the German government doesn't consider the only remaining pipe to be safe: https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/nord-stream-2-berlin-glaubt-nicht-an-verfuegbarkeit-von-zweiter-roehre-a-77ca3bfe-246e-481f-a276-3cf3fa39adc7 https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/nord-stream-2-berlin-glaub... More pedantic, but doesn't change my point.
assholehoff 4y ago
I'm not sure you understand how vile the oligarchs of Russia are. The country is a kleptocracy. These guys don't give two shits about the citizens of Russia, never mind anywhere else. They are constantly making insane deals that are terrible for the country and the citizens, but enrich themselves personally.
- foverzar 4y ago
  I'm pretty sure you yourself have a really vague understanding of Russian oligarchs and their power, if you bring them up in this context. They don't really influence the big politics. Not for the last 20 years or so, at least. Semibankirschina is long gone.
- miguelazo 4y ago
  Interesting, sounds exactly like Ukraine. Maybe how this war happened in the first place?

hatch_q 4y ago

You're missing the big picture. After Siemens gave Canadian export license that allows Gazprom to "repair" the turbines, there were no more excuses for Gazprom to not respect contractual obligation to provide gas through the pipeline. In short, Gazprom was facing enormous penalties for not providing gas. I am not saying Gazprom did it, but they had a reason and means (using a PIG) to do it.

mhermher 4y ago
Europe is sanctioning the hell out of Russia, and yet Gazprom would pay huge penalties on violating a contract. If anything this story shows why it's unlikely they blew up the pipeline. After that whole legalese theater, they just decided to turn off the tap. As simple as that. And just as simple to refuse to pay any fees.
- cycomanic 4y ago
  Things are not so easy, just yesterday there was an article about the financial crises caused by a Korean state not honouring their bond promises. If Gazprom would simply turn off the gas and say f* off to the fines, they would signal to ask buyers that they are willing to disregard contracts for political reasons. This would significantly undermine confidence in doing business with them, and likely lower prices people would pay for their gas.
  - MichaelCollins 4y ago
    Korea isn't in a war (their northern neighbor notwithstanding). They are still ostensibly abiding by the rule of law, so of course they're not going to merely give the finger to anybody who tries to fine them. Or maybe those courts which could somehow force Russia to pay fines for turning off gas should force Russia to pay fines for invading Ukraine.

zzleeper 4y ago

Yes it does. Russia's goals was to force Europe's hand (Germany mostly) to certify NS2. First, in Aug. Russia cuts NS1 to 20% citing supposed repairs: "Gazprom in July cut gas deliveries via NS1 to 20% of maximum capacity, citing turbine repair delays that it blamed on Western sanctions against Russia because of the war." There, they say "oh hey but look you have NS2 so why don't you certify it". Then, they turned it off completely: "The state-controlled firm disclosed Friday flows on NS1 would be closed from Aug. 31 to Sept. 2 during scheduled maintenance on its only currently operating compressor at a key station, Portovaya CS." Again, they say "well you can always use NS2". But when Europe didn't bite the bullet and surrender to their demands, they made it even more obvious that the only route for gas would be NS2, by blowing NS1. If this was UK or US sabotage, they would have blown NS2 completely, while possibly leaving NS1 alone. Links: https://www.naturalgasintel.com/russias-gazprom-plans-3-day-halt-of-ns1-natural-gas-flows-to-europe/ https://www.naturalgasintel.com/russias-gazprom-plans-3-day-... https://www.naturalgasintel.com/russias-planned-shutdown-of-ns1-pipeline-sends-european-natural-gas-prices-soaring-bolsters-henry-hub/ https://www.naturalgasintel.com/russias-planned-shutdown-of-...

foverzar 4y ago
> they made it even more obvious that the only route for gas would be NS2, by blowing NS1. Except NS2 had also exploded. Even if it didn't, can you explain the purpose of this all? What is there to be gained? NS1 had bigger capacity, which meant more money.
- _kbh_ 4y ago
  > Except NS2 had also exploded. Except it didn't there was a single pipe of NS2 left untouched, if you think it was the US why did they leave a single pipe for Russia to use as leverage to certify NS2?.
  - foverzar 4y ago
    Ok, 50% of NS2 had exploded, and the German government doesn't consider the only remaining pipe to be safe: https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/nord-stream-2-berlin-glaubt-nicht-an-verfuegbarkeit-von-zweiter-roehre-a-77ca3bfe-246e-481f-a276-3cf3fa39adc7 https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/nord-stream-2-berlin-glaub... More pedantic, but doesn't change my point.

assholehoff 4y ago

I'm not sure you understand how vile the oligarchs of Russia are. The country is a kleptocracy. These guys don't give two shits about the citizens of Russia, never mind anywhere else. They are constantly making insane deals that are terrible for the country and the citizens, but enrich themselves personally.

foverzar 4y ago
I'm pretty sure you yourself have a really vague understanding of Russian oligarchs and their power, if you bring them up in this context. They don't really influence the big politics. Not for the last 20 years or so, at least. Semibankirschina is long gone.
miguelazo 4y ago
Interesting, sounds exactly like Ukraine. Maybe how this war happened in the first place?