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Everyone with half a brain has predicted the failure of NFT's and the collapse of ridiculous get rich schemes such as FTX. The big problem is when recognising t
by tinco 4y ago
Everyone with half a brain has predicted the failure of NFT's and the collapse of ridiculous get rich schemes such as FTX. The big problem is when recognising the (small amount) of value that actually is in the cryptocurrency/defi industry, to put your money to work in a smart manner. Sequoia is clearly not able to do so reliably, but in general it's incredibly hard to be long on a market that's so overhyped as crypto is.
Besides crypto there's a ridiculous amount of overhyped tech stocks on the market. None of the tech companies have a market cap that is anywhere close to being sane relative to their intrinsic value. I'm long on Tesla, but I'd never actually hold that position, because I'm long at a much lower value of their stocks than they have now. But you know, the market can stay irrational a lot longer than you can resist FOMO'ing into an overhyped stock, is how the saying goes right?
- kaon123 4y agoYes yes and yes. But: Microsoft?
- notRobot 4y agoElaborate please?
- prepend 4y agoI think the difference is that there are many tech stocks that aren’t overhyped and are delivering things of value to the market, paying dividends, and rightly appreciating (eg, apple, Microsoft, Amazon, etc). I don’t think there’s any examples of crypto that have had virtuous payouts in the past 10 years. Everything is based on some future payout and luring in greater fools. So I don’t think the comparison is valid because most of tech stocks (by market cap) are not scams and hype. Although there is a lot of hype and probably a decent amount of scam.
- sokoloff 4y agoGeneral agreement, with minor clarification: AMZN has never paid a dividend, at least to my knowledge; they certainly don’t do it regularly.
- prepend 4y agoYes, good point. Amazon does not pay a dividend. But I think they are a successful tech company that delivers value and an understandable return on their stock.
- zanderxyz 4y agoIf you hold Tesla, you hold it at the current market price. It’s the same position as someone who buys today. If you wouldn’t buy it today then you should sell.
- sokoloff 4y agoWith the only exception of tax treatment for different holding periods or year of sale. If you’re a few days away from getting long-term treatment on a large gain, you’re not in exactly the same position as someone buying today and could easily have a different risk-adjusted return on holding shares you think are over-valued for a few more trading days. Less common is if you have a long-term loss (in-year or carry-forward) that will be used to offset a short-term gain, but you have a long-term unrealized gain. In that case, you would consider holding and realizing the long-term gain in the subsequent year, allowing the (less valuable) long-term loss to offset the (more expensive) short-term gain.
- tinco 4y agoYeah as I said I don't hold Tesla. I was long on it as I sold it years ago. Could've made more money if I held on to it, but I was not smart enough to realize what the global economy was doing to tech stocks, and not dumb enough to think Tesla actually was going to have any sort of intrinsic value close to their market cap.