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I personally don't own any Bitcoin, but would you have bought it in 2018 you'd still be up approx. ~370% at the current dip, while you would have been profitabl

I personally don't own any Bitcoin, but would you have bought it in 2018 you'd still be up approx. ~370% at the current dip, while you would have been profitable a whopping ~1700% at ATH. I find their contrarian takes rather regressive and self-serving.

newaccount74 4y ago
A lot of people have already lost a lot of money speculating on crypto since 2018, because of volatility, fraud, and exchanges that turned out to have spent all their customers money. Cherry picking a specific period where you would have made a lot of money is easy in hindsight, especially since I'm pretty sure the big crash is yet to come. (I'm not sure enough to bet on a crash, but sure enough to go nowhere close to crypto)
- noxer 4y ago
  Its not "Cherry picking" the video is from 2018 and obviously you would compare to the current price. Also the whole "people have already lost a lot of money" argument is totally pointless since you do not think the people who made money are relevant so why should the people who lost money be? If all of crypto is totally useless as people here keep saying then its a zero sum game and no money is lost at all it just moved around. Could it be that the people who moved it away from them are at fault? Anywhere outside of crypto we would blame the people for their stupid actions and not "the system" after all casinos exist and HN people aren't constantly talking about how it makes people lose money.
  - newaccount74 4y ago
    You picked two currencies that happened to have a big difference in value at these two points in time. You are ignoring that a lot of people who bought BTC in 2018 sold it again in 2019 as it lost 50% of its value. Nobody could predict that the value would spike again a few years later, and crash again, and spike again, and crash again. You are ignoring all the people who bought BTC at 40000 and are wondering if they should sell it at 60% loss now, or wait for it to rebound. You are ignoring all the people who lost their money because the exchange that they used turned out to be a pyramid scheme. You are ignoring all the people who bought altcoins that fizzled out, or that bought into the NFT craze or any of the other crazy schemes that crypto shills came up with. That's why I am saying you are cherry picking.
    - noxer 4y ago
      It wasn't even my post. People who do stupid decisions are at fault that has nothing to do with the picked time points. >Nobody could predict.... Except that thousandth of people did and still does at least the people who are informed. Some day the up and down will end as it gets weaker every wave, its very much predictable. BTC cycles have been ~4 year slightly growing a bit over time. If someone just randomly expect it to be just 1 year and then sells at -50%, its entirely their fault. To do that you have to be stupid twice once to buy without any knowledge about what they buy and then again after they spend a year not educating themself. No one cheated them, no one defrauded them, no one tricked them into anything. Its 100% voluntary stupidity. >That's why I am saying you are cherry picking. I'm not, it wasn't my post, I just pointed out that the times aren't picked by the author but by the release time of the video. He didn't cherry pick a best case point in time either, in fact the video was made after the second large crash in 2018 and the price comparison to now (presumably also after the second large crash in this cycle) It seems very reasonable to point out that the price is still higher now than back then. In fact if you compare 2 points in time 4 years apart that it p much the perfect unbiased pick since the cycled go 4 years.
supportlocal4h 4y ago
My house is up 370%. My neighbor's house is down. Meanwhile, we both stayed warm and dry last night.
pavlov 4y ago
And if you bought Enron stock in the 1990s and sold in 2000, you also made a wonderful profit. The existence of a trading opportunity (with perfect timing just assumed) doesn't tell you anything about the fundamentals. A lot of people bought Bitcoin during the late 2017 hype peak, around $17-19k. If they're still in, they're underwater on their investment now five years later. So it's not actually such a great long-term investment for the regular people who buy when the FOMO is high.
- noxer 4y ago
  You just did the same "perfect timing" just in reverse. BTW buying BTC is not an investment it is speculation. Also 17k-19k will probably give huge returns in 3 years or so. Its a high risk high reward bet you cant expect 100+% gains without also expecting some periods where you will be "underwater". If you aren't fine with both, long term crypto holding just isn't for you.
Nursie 4y ago
Unless you bought in early January 2018, when you'd still be down.

newaccount74 4y ago

A lot of people have already lost a lot of money speculating on crypto since 2018, because of volatility, fraud, and exchanges that turned out to have spent all their customers money. Cherry picking a specific period where you would have made a lot of money is easy in hindsight, especially since I'm pretty sure the big crash is yet to come. (I'm not sure enough to bet on a crash, but sure enough to go nowhere close to crypto)

noxer 4y ago
Its not "Cherry picking" the video is from 2018 and obviously you would compare to the current price. Also the whole "people have already lost a lot of money" argument is totally pointless since you do not think the people who made money are relevant so why should the people who lost money be? If all of crypto is totally useless as people here keep saying then its a zero sum game and no money is lost at all it just moved around. Could it be that the people who moved it away from them are at fault? Anywhere outside of crypto we would blame the people for their stupid actions and not "the system" after all casinos exist and HN people aren't constantly talking about how it makes people lose money.
- newaccount74 4y ago
  You picked two currencies that happened to have a big difference in value at these two points in time. You are ignoring that a lot of people who bought BTC in 2018 sold it again in 2019 as it lost 50% of its value. Nobody could predict that the value would spike again a few years later, and crash again, and spike again, and crash again. You are ignoring all the people who bought BTC at 40000 and are wondering if they should sell it at 60% loss now, or wait for it to rebound. You are ignoring all the people who lost their money because the exchange that they used turned out to be a pyramid scheme. You are ignoring all the people who bought altcoins that fizzled out, or that bought into the NFT craze or any of the other crazy schemes that crypto shills came up with. That's why I am saying you are cherry picking.
  - noxer 4y ago
    It wasn't even my post. People who do stupid decisions are at fault that has nothing to do with the picked time points. >Nobody could predict.... Except that thousandth of people did and still does at least the people who are informed. Some day the up and down will end as it gets weaker every wave, its very much predictable. BTC cycles have been ~4 year slightly growing a bit over time. If someone just randomly expect it to be just 1 year and then sells at -50%, its entirely their fault. To do that you have to be stupid twice once to buy without any knowledge about what they buy and then again after they spend a year not educating themself. No one cheated them, no one defrauded them, no one tricked them into anything. Its 100% voluntary stupidity. >That's why I am saying you are cherry picking. I'm not, it wasn't my post, I just pointed out that the times aren't picked by the author but by the release time of the video. He didn't cherry pick a best case point in time either, in fact the video was made after the second large crash in 2018 and the price comparison to now (presumably also after the second large crash in this cycle) It seems very reasonable to point out that the price is still higher now than back then. In fact if you compare 2 points in time 4 years apart that it p much the perfect unbiased pick since the cycled go 4 years.

supportlocal4h 4y ago

My house is up 370%. My neighbor's house is down. Meanwhile, we both stayed warm and dry last night.

pavlov 4y ago

And if you bought Enron stock in the 1990s and sold in 2000, you also made a wonderful profit. The existence of a trading opportunity (with perfect timing just assumed) doesn't tell you anything about the fundamentals. A lot of people bought Bitcoin during the late 2017 hype peak, around $17-19k. If they're still in, they're underwater on their investment now five years later. So it's not actually such a great long-term investment for the regular people who buy when the FOMO is high.

noxer 4y ago
You just did the same "perfect timing" just in reverse. BTW buying BTC is not an investment it is speculation. Also 17k-19k will probably give huge returns in 3 years or so. Its a high risk high reward bet you cant expect 100+% gains without also expecting some periods where you will be "underwater". If you aren't fine with both, long term crypto holding just isn't for you.

Nursie 4y ago

Unless you bought in early January 2018, when you'd still be down.