There is an argument that it has to hit the plateau first before a new technology can take over, the problem being that if the current tech is really scaling by

There is an argument that it has to hit the plateau first before a new technology can take over, the problem being that if the current tech is really scaling by 2x every 2 years, a new technology that is 10 years from commercialization has to be more than 30x better than current technology to be worth considering. However if current scaling slows down, the extra delta required is reduced. I seem to remember this was an argument made with Josephson Junctions back in the day. They were potentially better, but always far enough out that traditional technologies would exceed the projected performance by the time they launched. So maybe we need to hope for current trends to plateau if we want something new to replace it.