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Interesting reading. A comparison of the situations in Afghanistan just before and after the American withdrawal, and Ukraine just before and after the Russian

Interesting reading. A comparison of the situations in Afghanistan just before and after the American withdrawal, and Ukraine just before and after the Russian invasion, would be interesting. From my outside, uninformed perspective, the Taliban had a lot fewer resources than Russia, and the U.S. had been helping, equipping, and training Afghanistan's military for a lot longer. Clearly, the Afghanistan people have a history of warfare which refutes any idea that they cannot fight, so it would be interesting to see an informed analysis of why the Afghan government did so much worse at fighting an enemy that was not nearly so powerful.

wahern 4y ago
The problem wasn't the government; the problem is the society. For [reasons], the Taliban have been the only indigenous (or quasi-indigenous) force capable of holding Afghanistan together as something approximating a functioning state, at least since the wars with the Soviets. Sheer brutality is one of the reasons they've succeeded, and their ability to minimize crime was one reason they saw wide--if tepid--support in the 1990s. Moreover, they've figured out how to build stable social institutions out of violence: > The Taliban have mastered social performances of power using a language which is visual and visceral. They bring together shared narratives and beliefs from Afghan history and culture in the Muslim period to create new stories about who they are and the state they intend to create. https://theconversation.com/what-my-20-years-in-afghanistan-taught-me-about-the-taliban-and-how-the-west-consistently-underestimates-them-167927 https://theconversation.com/what-my-20-years-in-afghanistan-... But the real question, for which I haven't found a satisfactory answer, is why chaos reigns, otherwise. The demographic and cultural collapse in the wake of the Soviet-era conflicts are obvious culprits, but too broad and not necessarily uncommon; ditto for observations regarding it's traditional tribal culture and ethnic conflicts. A proper answer, IMO, would tell us about the particular factors which resulted in the evaporation of the social trust required to sustain national governance (if even just a traditional strong-man state), and therefore how they might be restored--or at least what to watch for as a sign of the viability of national social institutions. For all the problems with social trust some Western societies are having, we're still unfathomably distant from where Afghan society lies. The vast majority of countries are quite distant. Even Somalia is better off, or at least the half of Somalia which has been able to revive and sustain their ancient clan-based social institutions.

wahern 4y ago

The problem wasn't the government; the problem is the society. For [reasons], the Taliban have been the only indigenous (or quasi-indigenous) force capable of holding Afghanistan together as something approximating a functioning state, at least since the wars with the Soviets. Sheer brutality is one of the reasons they've succeeded, and their ability to minimize crime was one reason they saw wide--if tepid--support in the 1990s. Moreover, they've figured out how to build stable social institutions out of violence: > The Taliban have mastered social performances of power using a language which is visual and visceral. They bring together shared narratives and beliefs from Afghan history and culture in the Muslim period to create new stories about who they are and the state they intend to create. https://theconversation.com/what-my-20-years-in-afghanistan-taught-me-about-the-taliban-and-how-the-west-consistently-underestimates-them-167927 https://theconversation.com/what-my-20-years-in-afghanistan-... But the real question, for which I haven't found a satisfactory answer, is why chaos reigns, otherwise. The demographic and cultural collapse in the wake of the Soviet-era conflicts are obvious culprits, but too broad and not necessarily uncommon; ditto for observations regarding it's traditional tribal culture and ethnic conflicts. A proper answer, IMO, would tell us about the particular factors which resulted in the evaporation of the social trust required to sustain national governance (if even just a traditional strong-man state), and therefore how they might be restored--or at least what to watch for as a sign of the viability of national social institutions. For all the problems with social trust some Western societies are having, we're still unfathomably distant from where Afghan society lies. The vast majority of countries are quite distant. Even Somalia is better off, or at least the half of Somalia which has been able to revive and sustain their ancient clan-based social institutions.