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> but if you don't they suggest you can do it with lithium-ion and the renewable tech as it stands today, with price reductions coming from scale. LiIon batter

by danans 4y ago

> but if you don't they suggest you can do it with lithium-ion and the renewable tech as it stands today, with price reductions coming from scale. LiIon batteries are only economical today for the most valuable grid ancillary services, like frequency regulation, where they shine because of their fast response time. For day to week scale time-shifting of energy, we need something 10x cheaper. If LiIon batteries can achieve that kind of price reduction then great, but the price trend with LiIon has started to level out after getting 10x cheaper over the last 10 years. https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/12/battery-prices-have-fallen-88-percent-over-the-last-decade/ https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/12/battery-prices-have-...

ZeroGravitas 4y ago
The group that is doing this report suggests batteries reduced by 83% in the last decade and will reduce by a further 80% in the next decade: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PM2RxWtF4Ds&t=137s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PM2RxWtF4Ds&t=137s They predict similar for wind and solar, and notably they correctly predicted the price drop of solar 10 years ago till today. Which seemed a crazy thing to suggest 10 years ago.
ben_w 4y ago
> LiIon batteries are only economical today for the most valuable grid ancillary services, like frequency regulation, where they shine because of their fast response time. Not so; for cost, LiIon+PV can already beat nuclear for the same use cases in most places, what we have not yet done is build the mines and the factories to scale all the way up to this. Nuclear is the easy bar to pass, and while this report says we can beat all fossil fuels on price this way, I'm willing to doubt that for the sake of arguing against this claim in this instance.
Schroedingersat 4y ago
Sodium ion launches next year. As does a lot of lithium extraction started when people realized covid had caused a massive shortage that would hit 2 years later (ie. Now)

by danans 4y ago

ZeroGravitas 4y ago

The group that is doing this report suggests batteries reduced by 83% in the last decade and will reduce by a further 80% in the next decade: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PM2RxWtF4Ds&t=137s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PM2RxWtF4Ds&t=137s They predict similar for wind and solar, and notably they correctly predicted the price drop of solar 10 years ago till today. Which seemed a crazy thing to suggest 10 years ago.

ben_w 4y ago

> LiIon batteries are only economical today for the most valuable grid ancillary services, like frequency regulation, where they shine because of their fast response time. Not so; for cost, LiIon+PV can already beat nuclear for the same use cases in most places, what we have not yet done is build the mines and the factories to scale all the way up to this. Nuclear is the easy bar to pass, and while this report says we can beat all fossil fuels on price this way, I'm willing to doubt that for the sake of arguing against this claim in this instance.

Schroedingersat 4y ago

Sodium ion launches next year. As does a lot of lithium extraction started when people realized covid had caused a massive shortage that would hit 2 years later (ie. Now)