It's sticky to "guess right", in the case where publicizing that guess would reveal technology "secrets". Those secrets are export controlled whether or not you

It's sticky to "guess right", in the case where publicizing that guess would reveal technology "secrets". Those secrets are export controlled whether or not you know of a government program creating those secrets in parallel, even if nobody is working on it. Some capabilities are just automatically guarded from inception. For example, if you "guess" that a certain type of lens would be better for certain types of infrared imaging, and publish this, you have potentially violated the US export control / international traffic in arms regulation (ITAR) by "exporting" that design to the wider public. It's easy to complain about that, but widely publishing information on highly effective weaponry is (I hope) clearly a bad idea, lest some rogue actor start shooting down airliners for fun.