5 ms·

I love how we still read about predictions from few people on such a complex thing. How often economist or experts were be able to predict future accurately? n

• datadata 4y ago
  I think inaccuracy is necessary for entertainment value. Ancient people for example made much around trying to predict astronomical phenomenon, before we were able to do that precisely. What is depressing about economics is that we don't really seem to be making progress towards accurate predictions like we have done with physical sciences.
  • scythe 4y ago
    Any economic predictions made around 2018-9 were demolished by the COVID-19 pandemic. Knightian uncertainty is really something.
    • slaw 4y ago
      Economic predictions didn't take into account that two weeks lockdown would last a year and Fed would inject $5 trillion into stock market.
• it_citizen 4y ago
  The most valuable insights usually come from economists treating their discipline as history and not like some hard science with models that fail to capture the nuances of our reality.
• halpmeh 4y ago
  What’s the alternative? People enjoy reading predictions because it helps inform their opinion on a topic. An opinion on a topic as important as inflation is quite consequential. People use such opinions to decide whether or not to buy a house, change jobs, etc. If we stop reading the opinion of others, how can we build our own opinion on a topic?