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I don’t get what people mean by this. I have mixed feelings about the guy, but vaporware? Are the rockets not real? Are the cars and solar panels and tunnels an

I don’t get what people mean by this. I have mixed feelings about the guy, but vaporware? Are the rockets not real? Are the cars and solar panels and tunnels and Paypal not real? Of course he didn’t single-handedly do this. Of course other engineers were invaluable in the process. But he forced Tesla and SpaceX into existence when everyone thought it was guaranteed to fail. We saw people trying with electric cars and new kinds of rockets before him. From General Motors to Burt Rutan, none succeeded. Elon had a viable vision and pushed it like a maniac and now it’s real, and mainstream. It’s incredible. If I can do this with a single project, I’d consider my life a smashing success.

dale_glass 4y ago
> I don’t get what people mean by this. I have mixed feelings about the guy, but vaporware? Are the rockets not real? Are the cars and solar panels and tunnels and Paypal not real? Rockets are real. Cars are real, but aren't particularly good given the reports, so he'll likely run into trouble with the competition soon. Solar panels seem to be doing very so-so, the reports I've heard is that their solar roof stuff is very troublesome. The tunnels suck. He dug extremely narrow deathtraps that for some reason are driven through in a car, and that will kill people as soon as there's an accident.
Retric 4y ago
SpaceX is a major success for him. Musk’s introduction to Tesla was being amazed by a working prototype with awesome acceleration. He took over Tesla when it already had a viable product and business strategy. The company started July 1 2003 and Musk’s early contribution was an early funding round and a board seat. He get’s to call himself a founder based on a lawsuit in 2009 and kicking the actual founders out.
- FredPret 4y ago
  OK, and then he proceeded to turn that fledgling entity into a massive industry-launching company. This is enough to be considered a business genius. Even if Tesla fails, which seems unlikely given their pile of cash and very popular cars, he has already succeeded in his stated goal of getting the switch to electric cars started.
  - Retric 4y ago
    The EV transition is all about improvements in battery technology which Tesla had nothing to do with. A big chunk of Tesla’s early revenue was selling drivetrains to over EV companies. The transition was real and Tesla successfully road the wave, props to a successfully executed business strategy but technology wise it really didn’t change much. People talk about the EV1, but the Toyota RAV4 EV was produced from 1997–2003, and then 2012–2014 the second version was even a collaboration with Tesla. Where it failed was not targeting the sports car market. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_RAV4_EV https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_RAV4_EV
    - FredPret 4y ago
      Technology is one aspect of progress. Deploying it, convincing people to adopt it, making it a viable business are all just as important, if not more. Just as an aside, it's not possible to make more than zero cars without developing a hell of a lot of technology; especially if you mass produce them. Even if every aspect of the car is completely old hat, which Teslas aren't.
      - Retric 4y ago
        I have no problem acknowledging that fewer EV’s would be on the road without Tesla the company. I simply disagree that Musk actually moved the needle significantly long term. The initial Roadster was the first production EV to have a range of 200 miles which then sold 2,450 cars. That’s a milestone, but Musk wasn’t even the CEO when it was released. I give him credit for being part of the funding round A though not a seed investor, an actual founder, or really all that critical to the process while acknowledging he very much was part of the process. He had a larger role when it comes to the Model S, but by that point they had all the elements of a car and it really came down to execution. He helped turn a 100 million dollar company into a 100 billion dollar company, that is impressive. You don’t need to try and exaggerate his importance.
stephc_int13 4y ago
The rockets and the cars are real. -Tunnels are BS -Hyperloop is dumb BS -TeslaBot demos are embarassingly bad -Neuralink seems to be BS -Solar Tiles are BS -The PowerWall is semi-legit but overpriced -The roadster/semi/cybertruck are suspiciously late -A lot of the Mars plans are weak/delusional
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- AbraKdabra 4y ago
  Yeah, and Gmail started as an April Fools prank, remember? You call it BS, I call it "no one is innovating as much as this fucking guy", go figure. EDIT: The guy is sending rockets to freaking space and has a fleet of satellites that provide intenet, are you not entertained??
  - FredPret 4y ago
    Some people don't want to be happy
  - stephc_int13 4y ago
    I am not. Everything he has done successfully relied on old/proven technology. I am not saying that this is bullshit or not impressive. But that does not prove anything about his claims on AI, transportation or Mars colonization. I would love to see him succeed, but at this stage I am pretty much convinced that he won't, too many red flags.
  - Bubble_Pop_22 4y ago
    > no one is innovating as much as this fucking guy The Spruce Goose is marvelous and innovative too, the Apollo rockets, the ISS, you name it. All those things had their plug pulled or are about to be because they are giant money sinkholes which failed to pay for themselves or provide any ROI in terms of money or quality of life. Electric Cars and rockets have not yet graduated to a point where it's safe to say that they won't be just a fad. If people stop caring about climate then EVs have no reason to exist. Similarly as the population becomes more and more urbanised they will rely on fiber as opposed to Sat-Internet so Starlink has no reason to exist. All those things you are enthusiastic about are mostly overhyped fads which Musk himself is pumping and self-promoting while the real innovation which is life changing for all of us will come from some small and quiet biotech company, away from all the media fanfare. Oh wait, it already happened with Moderna and people can't even comprehend it because they are busy following the last PR stunt of this fraud.
ehnto 4y ago
I think what could potentially be vapor is the money in the valuations. In two years, Tesla went from 75billion market cap to 1 trillion, in the middle of a pandemic. How can a car company, of any kind, suddenly be delivering 925 billion dollars more value to the world. Tesla is one of the biggest car manufacturers by market cap, yet almost every other car company is out-producing them by a landslide, and even as industrial conglomerates they're valued at much less than Tesla which is practically quaint by comparison to say, Toyota's operations. So valuation comes from speculation of course, but what are people speculating will happen? If Toyota, the biggest car manufacturer in the world, is valued less than Tesla is now, then the end goal of Tesla matching or besting Toyota's operations should see it's real value be... much less than it currently is. Now incumbent manufacturers are delivering EVs and in brands, form-factors and levels of quality more people can care about, I just don't see how Tesla is differentiated in a way that even remotely justifies it's valuation.
- stephc_int13 4y ago
  Tesla seems to be a moderately successful but enormously overvalued car company. Why? Because Elon himself is seen as a super-genius and a savior of humanity by a lot of people, including smart dudes like Geohot or Lex Fridman. Also, Telsa valuation is tied to L5 (full autonomy), and the TelsaBot and the impressive giga factories and the AI hype, and the Solar panels etc. But most of that will flop...
  - drcongo 4y ago
    I'm really not sure we can class anyone who thinks Musk is a genius as being "smart dudes".
    - inawarminister 4y ago
      Geohot innovated removing iPhone sim lock (remember AT&T exclusivity>) at age 17, jailbroken PS3, and built an Autopilot-quality hardware by himself. He's now livecoding a ML library on Twitch. Lex Friedman is Lex Friedman. So no, those guys are smart dudes.
slenk 4y ago
He didn't invent paypal. He has one tunnel that goes a mile. What solar panels? The were never in production. Telsa? Bought from somebody else. What about my truck and semi? All vaporware, all the time.

dale_glass 4y ago

> I don’t get what people mean by this. I have mixed feelings about the guy, but vaporware? Are the rockets not real? Are the cars and solar panels and tunnels and Paypal not real? Rockets are real. Cars are real, but aren't particularly good given the reports, so he'll likely run into trouble with the competition soon. Solar panels seem to be doing very so-so, the reports I've heard is that their solar roof stuff is very troublesome. The tunnels suck. He dug extremely narrow deathtraps that for some reason are driven through in a car, and that will kill people as soon as there's an accident.

Retric 4y ago

SpaceX is a major success for him. Musk’s introduction to Tesla was being amazed by a working prototype with awesome acceleration. He took over Tesla when it already had a viable product and business strategy. The company started July 1 2003 and Musk’s early contribution was an early funding round and a board seat. He get’s to call himself a founder based on a lawsuit in 2009 and kicking the actual founders out.

FredPret 4y ago
OK, and then he proceeded to turn that fledgling entity into a massive industry-launching company. This is enough to be considered a business genius. Even if Tesla fails, which seems unlikely given their pile of cash and very popular cars, he has already succeeded in his stated goal of getting the switch to electric cars started.
- Retric 4y ago
  The EV transition is all about improvements in battery technology which Tesla had nothing to do with. A big chunk of Tesla’s early revenue was selling drivetrains to over EV companies. The transition was real and Tesla successfully road the wave, props to a successfully executed business strategy but technology wise it really didn’t change much. People talk about the EV1, but the Toyota RAV4 EV was produced from 1997–2003, and then 2012–2014 the second version was even a collaboration with Tesla. Where it failed was not targeting the sports car market. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_RAV4_EV https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_RAV4_EV
  - FredPret 4y ago
    Technology is one aspect of progress. Deploying it, convincing people to adopt it, making it a viable business are all just as important, if not more. Just as an aside, it's not possible to make more than zero cars without developing a hell of a lot of technology; especially if you mass produce them. Even if every aspect of the car is completely old hat, which Teslas aren't.
    - Retric 4y ago
      I have no problem acknowledging that fewer EV’s would be on the road without Tesla the company. I simply disagree that Musk actually moved the needle significantly long term. The initial Roadster was the first production EV to have a range of 200 miles which then sold 2,450 cars. That’s a milestone, but Musk wasn’t even the CEO when it was released. I give him credit for being part of the funding round A though not a seed investor, an actual founder, or really all that critical to the process while acknowledging he very much was part of the process. He had a larger role when it comes to the Model S, but by that point they had all the elements of a car and it really came down to execution. He helped turn a 100 million dollar company into a 100 billion dollar company, that is impressive. You don’t need to try and exaggerate his importance.

stephc_int13 4y ago

The rockets and the cars are real. -Tunnels are BS -Hyperloop is dumb BS -TeslaBot demos are embarassingly bad -Neuralink seems to be BS -Solar Tiles are BS -The PowerWall is semi-legit but overpriced -The roadster/semi/cybertruck are suspiciously late -A lot of the Mars plans are weak/delusional

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
AbraKdabra 4y ago
Yeah, and Gmail started as an April Fools prank, remember? You call it BS, I call it "no one is innovating as much as this fucking guy", go figure. EDIT: The guy is sending rockets to freaking space and has a fleet of satellites that provide intenet, are you not entertained??
- FredPret 4y ago
  Some people don't want to be happy
- stephc_int13 4y ago
  I am not. Everything he has done successfully relied on old/proven technology. I am not saying that this is bullshit or not impressive. But that does not prove anything about his claims on AI, transportation or Mars colonization. I would love to see him succeed, but at this stage I am pretty much convinced that he won't, too many red flags.
- Bubble_Pop_22 4y ago
  > no one is innovating as much as this fucking guy The Spruce Goose is marvelous and innovative too, the Apollo rockets, the ISS, you name it. All those things had their plug pulled or are about to be because they are giant money sinkholes which failed to pay for themselves or provide any ROI in terms of money or quality of life. Electric Cars and rockets have not yet graduated to a point where it's safe to say that they won't be just a fad. If people stop caring about climate then EVs have no reason to exist. Similarly as the population becomes more and more urbanised they will rely on fiber as opposed to Sat-Internet so Starlink has no reason to exist. All those things you are enthusiastic about are mostly overhyped fads which Musk himself is pumping and self-promoting while the real innovation which is life changing for all of us will come from some small and quiet biotech company, away from all the media fanfare. Oh wait, it already happened with Moderna and people can't even comprehend it because they are busy following the last PR stunt of this fraud.

ehnto 4y ago

I think what could potentially be vapor is the money in the valuations. In two years, Tesla went from 75billion market cap to 1 trillion, in the middle of a pandemic. How can a car company, of any kind, suddenly be delivering 925 billion dollars more value to the world. Tesla is one of the biggest car manufacturers by market cap, yet almost every other car company is out-producing them by a landslide, and even as industrial conglomerates they're valued at much less than Tesla which is practically quaint by comparison to say, Toyota's operations. So valuation comes from speculation of course, but what are people speculating will happen? If Toyota, the biggest car manufacturer in the world, is valued less than Tesla is now, then the end goal of Tesla matching or besting Toyota's operations should see it's real value be... much less than it currently is. Now incumbent manufacturers are delivering EVs and in brands, form-factors and levels of quality more people can care about, I just don't see how Tesla is differentiated in a way that even remotely justifies it's valuation.

stephc_int13 4y ago
Tesla seems to be a moderately successful but enormously overvalued car company. Why? Because Elon himself is seen as a super-genius and a savior of humanity by a lot of people, including smart dudes like Geohot or Lex Fridman. Also, Telsa valuation is tied to L5 (full autonomy), and the TelsaBot and the impressive giga factories and the AI hype, and the Solar panels etc. But most of that will flop...
- drcongo 4y ago
  I'm really not sure we can class anyone who thinks Musk is a genius as being "smart dudes".
  - inawarminister 4y ago
    Geohot innovated removing iPhone sim lock (remember AT&T exclusivity>) at age 17, jailbroken PS3, and built an Autopilot-quality hardware by himself. He's now livecoding a ML library on Twitch. Lex Friedman is Lex Friedman. So no, those guys are smart dudes.

slenk 4y ago

He didn't invent paypal. He has one tunnel that goes a mile. What solar panels? The were never in production. Telsa? Bought from somebody else. What about my truck and semi? All vaporware, all the time.