4 ms·

Also the cost of lithium may rise as more vehicles start using Li-ion batteries, but price of hydrogen storage will likely remain the same

by tonmoy 4y ago

bryanlarsen 4y ago
That's contrary to conventional economics -- costs fall as production increases.
- sacred_numbers 4y ago
  I think the reason hydrogen storage costs won't fall much is because the cheapest technology (metal tanks) have already benefited from economies of scale. The parts that make them suitable for hydrogen storage specifically will get cheaper, but it's unlikely that there's a lot of low hanging fruit for manufacturing the tanks themselves. There could be a breakthrough in metal hydride storage or cryogenic storage that could reduce costs, but I'm not too optimistic. I think the most likely scenario is that most electrolyzed hydrogen is converted to methane for storage and use. Methane is much easier to convert to liquid and much more energy dense, which helps with storage costs.
  - bryanlarsen 4y ago
    Lithium prices should fall dramatically in the future as production increases.
    - TheLoafOfBread 4y ago
      And the rest of metals? Nickel, copper?
      - ajross 4y ago
        Storage batteries are moving rapidly toward a LiFePO4 chemistry that doesn't require rare resources. You can buy cars (even Teslas) and home batteries with them already.
        TheLoafOfBread 4y ago
        Only a matter of time before phosphorus becomes as expensive as nickel or copper and you are back on the beginning with lack of materials for batteries. > Earth's commercial and affordable phosphorus reserves are expected to be depleted in 50–100 years and peak phosphorus to be reached in approximately 2030. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_phosphorus https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_phosphorus
        ajross 4y ago
        No, phosphate is vastly cheaper than battery metals. I mean, yes, we're using way too much of it (for agriculture, in a manner that ends up unrecoverably flushed into the oceans). And we're going to hit a wall, and its price is going to skyrocket. But to matter to a battery producer it would have to be so expensive that we'd have all starved anyway. The price levels between batteries and fertilizers are just too different.
        TheLoafOfBread 4y ago
        > No, phosphate is vastly cheaper than battery metals Lithium used to be cheap. Is not anymore. Phosphate will go same route. That's the whole point.
        ajross 4y ago
        I repeat: if phosphate was so expensive as to make a significant portion of the material cost of a LiFePO4 battery, then we would have long since starved for lack of crops. Relative to food, batteries are an extraordinarily expensive luxury good.
- LegionMammal978 4y ago
  How is this contrary to conventional economics? Using the most basic model of supply and demand, EVs becoming more popular would shift the demand curve to the right, since more people would want to buy Li-ion batteries at any given price. We would expect the market equilibrium to shift both upward and rightward, increasing both quantity and price. It might only shift only one way or the other, if supply is particularly elastic or inelastic. But it definitely wouldn't cause a decrease in price by itself.
  - bryanlarsen 4y ago
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Experience_curve_effects https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Experience_curve_effects
    - Manuel_D 4y ago
      The effects of experience curves vary widely between different industries. For semiconductors, it's huge. For mining, not so much. Battery costs are only 25% manufacturing. So at this point, battery supply is rapidly becoming a resource extraction problem.
      - bryanlarsen 4y ago
        The scale effects in mining are very significant. Big mines are a lot cheaper per tonne than little mines.
        LegionMammal978 4y ago
        This is no longer a question of economic axioms, but of the facts on the ground. How do we know that the scale effects relative to lithium mines as they stand today will be sufficient to offset the price increase inherently caused by the increased demand? Do you have a source for this?
        bryanlarsen 4y ago
- HPsquared 4y ago
  I think causality works better the other way - production increases as costs fall. Edit: LegionMammal has the right words, demand curve.
- funcDropShadow 4y ago
  That is not necessarily true for minerals, which are mined not produced.
- Manuel_D 4y ago
  https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lithium https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lithium

Also the cost of lithium may rise as more vehicles start using Li-ion batteries, but price of hydrogen storage will likely remain the same

by tonmoy 4y ago

Also the cost of lithium may rise as more vehicles start using Li-ion batteries, but price of hydrogen storage will likely remain the same

bryanlarsen 4y ago

That's contrary to conventional economics -- costs fall as production increases.

sacred_numbers 4y ago
I think the reason hydrogen storage costs won't fall much is because the cheapest technology (metal tanks) have already benefited from economies of scale. The parts that make them suitable for hydrogen storage specifically will get cheaper, but it's unlikely that there's a lot of low hanging fruit for manufacturing the tanks themselves. There could be a breakthrough in metal hydride storage or cryogenic storage that could reduce costs, but I'm not too optimistic. I think the most likely scenario is that most electrolyzed hydrogen is converted to methane for storage and use. Methane is much easier to convert to liquid and much more energy dense, which helps with storage costs.
- bryanlarsen 4y ago
  Lithium prices should fall dramatically in the future as production increases.
  - TheLoafOfBread 4y ago
    And the rest of metals? Nickel, copper?
    - ajross 4y ago
      Storage batteries are moving rapidly toward a LiFePO4 chemistry that doesn't require rare resources. You can buy cars (even Teslas) and home batteries with them already.
      - TheLoafOfBread 4y ago
        Only a matter of time before phosphorus becomes as expensive as nickel or copper and you are back on the beginning with lack of materials for batteries. > Earth's commercial and affordable phosphorus reserves are expected to be depleted in 50–100 years and peak phosphorus to be reached in approximately 2030. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_phosphorus https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_phosphorus
        ajross 4y ago
        No, phosphate is vastly cheaper than battery metals. I mean, yes, we're using way too much of it (for agriculture, in a manner that ends up unrecoverably flushed into the oceans). And we're going to hit a wall, and its price is going to skyrocket. But to matter to a battery producer it would have to be so expensive that we'd have all starved anyway. The price levels between batteries and fertilizers are just too different.
        TheLoafOfBread 4y ago
        > No, phosphate is vastly cheaper than battery metals Lithium used to be cheap. Is not anymore. Phosphate will go same route. That's the whole point.
        ajross 4y ago
        I repeat: if phosphate was so expensive as to make a significant portion of the material cost of a LiFePO4 battery, then we would have long since starved for lack of crops. Relative to food, batteries are an extraordinarily expensive luxury good.
LegionMammal978 4y ago
How is this contrary to conventional economics? Using the most basic model of supply and demand, EVs becoming more popular would shift the demand curve to the right, since more people would want to buy Li-ion batteries at any given price. We would expect the market equilibrium to shift both upward and rightward, increasing both quantity and price. It might only shift only one way or the other, if supply is particularly elastic or inelastic. But it definitely wouldn't cause a decrease in price by itself.
- bryanlarsen 4y ago
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Experience_curve_effects https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Experience_curve_effects
  - Manuel_D 4y ago
    The effects of experience curves vary widely between different industries. For semiconductors, it's huge. For mining, not so much. Battery costs are only 25% manufacturing. So at this point, battery supply is rapidly becoming a resource extraction problem.
    - bryanlarsen 4y ago
      The scale effects in mining are very significant. Big mines are a lot cheaper per tonne than little mines.
      - LegionMammal978 4y ago
        This is no longer a question of economic axioms, but of the facts on the ground. How do we know that the scale effects relative to lithium mines as they stand today will be sufficient to offset the price increase inherently caused by the increased demand? Do you have a source for this?
        bryanlarsen 4y ago
HPsquared 4y ago
I think causality works better the other way - production increases as costs fall. Edit: LegionMammal has the right words, demand curve.
funcDropShadow 4y ago
That is not necessarily true for minerals, which are mined not produced.
Manuel_D 4y ago
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lithium https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lithium