expected value makes some sense when you're sampling a lot, but basically none for one offs. personally i think if you're making big bets/one-offs, you probabl

expected value makes some sense when you're sampling a lot, but basically none for one offs. personally i think if you're making big bets/one-offs, you probably should be computing something like minimax trees for all the possible outcomes before making a choice and maybe adjust the bet size such that the worst case is something you can swallow.