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I read the study's paper (https://www.bis.org/publ/work1049.htm https://www.bis.org/publ/work1049.htm) and noticed a glaring flaw: They gather stats on 213 exc
by mrb 4y ago
I read the study's paper (https://www.bis.org/publ/work1049.htm https://www.bis.org/publ/work1049.htm) and noticed a glaring flaw:
They gather stats on 213 exchange apps (187 identified from https://www.cryptocompare.com/exchanges/ https://www.cryptocompare.com/exchanges/ + 26 tagged by Sensor Tower). They assume downloaders of any of these crypto apps buy specifically bitcoins, not altcoins. There is nothing to support this assumption. In fact, the majority of these exchanges especially from the list at https://www.cryptocompare.com/exchanges/ https://www.cryptocompare.com/exchanges/ cater specifically to altcoins. People who want to buy Bitcoin will do so through Gemini, Binance, Bitstamp, Coinbase, and a few other trusted well-established exchanges. But the majority of this list of 213 exchanges is specifically used to access altcoin markets, because they don't even have a way to deposit USD. These exchanges require users to deposit crypto. So that doesn't match at all the study's authors assumption that the enduser installs these apps as a first-time bitcoin buyer.
Ignoring this glaring flaw, graph 1 charts downloads of crypto exchange apps per 100,000 people, and it is interesting as it reveals that the vast majority of users joined after Dec 2020, which was during or after the all-time highs of that year. In other words, they assume more users bought bitcoins in the last 2 years than in the first 10 of 12 years of bitcoin's existence. Anyone who bought bitcoins before approximately Nov 2020¹ is, of course, still in the green. If graph 1 was showing cumulative downloads instead of daily downloads, this would give a better breakdown of the number of users before and after Dec 2020.
¹ Except during a handful of days in Dec 2017-Jan 2018 when bitcoin was briefly above $17k.
- startupsfail 4y agoEveryone who bought and sold is in the green (assuming that they haven’t payed the taxes and not accounting for externalities of increased fraud, crime, CO2 emissions, etc). And then, not counting people who bought and lost (wallet lost/exchange collapsed, etc). And then, anyone who is still holding are under multiple risks: regulatory, markets tanking, taxation, fraud, exchange collapse, wallet stolen, etc.
- dibt 4y agoThis is a common theme for BIS. I may do an analysis on the their studies. I suspect they overwhelmingly express a negative sentiment for Bitcoin and DeFi, and have questionable methodology like you describe. I notice they like to get their studies into media outlets like this one, Gizmodo or the New York Post (a tabloid).