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"Russia has intentionally conducted an act of war (which did no serious damage nor improved Russia's strategic position) on an enemy that it cannot possibly def

"Russia has intentionally conducted an act of war (which did no serious damage nor improved Russia's strategic position) on an enemy that it cannot possibly defeat, for unknown reasons" doesn't really stand up to Occam's Razor, when "human error" is also on the menu.

avmich 4y ago
> doesn't really stand up to Occam's Razor, when "human error" is also on the menu. In questions like this, there should be some demonstration of attempts to avoid human errors. Here we have a massive attack on the whole territory, including regions at the border. We can wait for next actions from Russia - if they'd bring apologies and some good offers - but meantime it's a good idea to keep reaction going. After all, it's the approach proven to be most reliable when dealing with current Russia.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- vkou 4y ago
  > In questions like this, there should be some demonstration of attempts to avoid human errors. If I told you that a surgeon made two fatal mistakes, you can't conclude from that information whether or not he's made a lot, a little, or an average number of attempts to avoid human error in his work.
7952 4y ago
Yes. I wonder if coordinates have to be entered manually.
- v8xi 4y ago
  Seemingly, they do. Apparently its all loaded in via thumb drive. https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2022/10/24/the-remote-control-killers-behind-russias-cruise-missile-strikes-on-ukraine/ https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2022/10/24/the...
pornel 4y ago
Another possibility is that it's intentionally borderline "oops or maybe not oops" to have plausible deniability while knowing Poland is going to take it extremely seriously. This lets them test Poland's and NATO's reaction to see how much they will tolerate and how eager NATO actually is to mobilize its military.
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orestlenczyk 4y ago
While Occam razor can be useful for creating models, it is a common misconception to use it as a tool for assessing probabilities of hypotesis

avmich 4y ago

> doesn't really stand up to Occam's Razor, when "human error" is also on the menu. In questions like this, there should be some demonstration of attempts to avoid human errors. Here we have a massive attack on the whole territory, including regions at the border. We can wait for next actions from Russia - if they'd bring apologies and some good offers - but meantime it's a good idea to keep reaction going. After all, it's the approach proven to be most reliable when dealing with current Russia.

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
vkou 4y ago
> In questions like this, there should be some demonstration of attempts to avoid human errors. If I told you that a surgeon made two fatal mistakes, you can't conclude from that information whether or not he's made a lot, a little, or an average number of attempts to avoid human error in his work.

7952 4y ago

Yes. I wonder if coordinates have to be entered manually.

v8xi 4y ago
Seemingly, they do. Apparently its all loaded in via thumb drive. https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2022/10/24/the-remote-control-killers-behind-russias-cruise-missile-strikes-on-ukraine/ https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2022/10/24/the...

pornel 4y ago

Another possibility is that it's intentionally borderline "oops or maybe not oops" to have plausible deniability while knowing Poland is going to take it extremely seriously. This lets them test Poland's and NATO's reaction to see how much they will tolerate and how eager NATO actually is to mobilize its military.

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]

orestlenczyk 4y ago

While Occam razor can be useful for creating models, it is a common misconception to use it as a tool for assessing probabilities of hypotesis