5 ms·

A scary thought: losing a war against Ukraine might be shameful. Losing one against NATO much less - so if you can't win against Ukraine, then escalate until yo

A scary thought: losing a war against Ukraine might be shameful. Losing one against NATO much less - so if you can't win against Ukraine, then escalate until you're defeated by NATO.

philistine 4y ago
Ukraine will be content with restoring its borders to pre-2014. NATO will decapitate the regime, demilitarize the country including its nukes, and install a pro-western autocratic puppet in the Kremlin. I don’t think you want to lose to NATO.
- avmich 4y ago
  > install a pro-western autocratic puppet in the Kremlin Like Erdogan?.. Or Netanyahu? Or Berlusconi? Not sure what would be a good example, can you give some?
  - jjtheblunt 4y ago
    Japan in 1945?
    - riku_iki 4y ago
      they didn't have nukes.
  - noxer 4y ago
    Zelenskyy?
  - lakomen 4y ago
    Kosovo criminals
- petre 4y ago
  Won't happen. But the US and friends will probably bankrupt Russia and it will all fall apart USSR style. That was the initial plan anyway and it kind of worked until it didn't.
  - noxer 4y ago
    The moment Russia is so weak that it falls apart, China will invade them. No one in the west would want that.
  - XajniN 4y ago
    Fall apart how? That’s the least likely scenario.
    - petre 4y ago
      Breakaway separatist republics (with nukes, which brings us to why it didn't work out that well). Think Daghestan, Bashkortostan where there are already problems because of the disproportionate mobilization effort. Some of them are already unsovereign states with all the necessary institutions. There's a reason they're called republics.
      - XajniN 4y ago
        Those republics (Chechnya and Dagestan) have fewer than a million people and Moscow is not afraid of razing them to the ground. Other republics don’t have significant non-Russian population. Russia falling apart is just wishful thinking.
        petre 4y ago
        The Kremlin will no longer have the means of razing every one of them to the ground once everybody wants out. They could raize cities, not entire republics.
  - dragonwriter 4y ago
    > But the US and friends will probably bankrupt Russia and it will all fall apart USSR style. Probably not; certainly, individual republics might be temporary loci of power in a central government collapse, but they’d almost certainly reconstitute the central government, perhaps with a slightly different central/local balance of power. The Russian Federation doesn’t (for the most part) have the same centrifugal forces as the USSR held in by a strong central authoritarianism.
dandanua 4y ago
It's exactly what they want. They think that NATO won't attack Russian territory because of nukes. But direct NATO participation in Ukraine will be a victory for Putin's fascists regime in Russia. They will be screaming "we told you so", "NATO aggressive expansion", "bla bla bla", etc. This would be a justification for them to convert Russia into a total shithole like North Korea, but with "gods" at the top of power hierarchy.

A scary thought: losing a war against Ukraine might be shameful. Losing one against NATO much less - so if you can't win against Ukraine, then escalate until you're defeated by NATO.

philistine 4y ago

Ukraine will be content with restoring its borders to pre-2014. NATO will decapitate the regime, demilitarize the country including its nukes, and install a pro-western autocratic puppet in the Kremlin. I don’t think you want to lose to NATO.

avmich 4y ago
> install a pro-western autocratic puppet in the Kremlin Like Erdogan?.. Or Netanyahu? Or Berlusconi? Not sure what would be a good example, can you give some?
- jjtheblunt 4y ago
  Japan in 1945?
  - riku_iki 4y ago
    they didn't have nukes.
- noxer 4y ago
  Zelenskyy?
- lakomen 4y ago
  Kosovo criminals
petre 4y ago
Won't happen. But the US and friends will probably bankrupt Russia and it will all fall apart USSR style. That was the initial plan anyway and it kind of worked until it didn't.
- noxer 4y ago
  The moment Russia is so weak that it falls apart, China will invade them. No one in the west would want that.
- XajniN 4y ago
  Fall apart how? That’s the least likely scenario.
  - petre 4y ago
    Breakaway separatist republics (with nukes, which brings us to why it didn't work out that well). Think Daghestan, Bashkortostan where there are already problems because of the disproportionate mobilization effort. Some of them are already unsovereign states with all the necessary institutions. There's a reason they're called republics.
    - XajniN 4y ago
      Those republics (Chechnya and Dagestan) have fewer than a million people and Moscow is not afraid of razing them to the ground. Other republics don’t have significant non-Russian population. Russia falling apart is just wishful thinking.
      - petre 4y ago
        The Kremlin will no longer have the means of razing every one of them to the ground once everybody wants out. They could raize cities, not entire republics.
- dragonwriter 4y ago
  > But the US and friends will probably bankrupt Russia and it will all fall apart USSR style. Probably not; certainly, individual republics might be temporary loci of power in a central government collapse, but they’d almost certainly reconstitute the central government, perhaps with a slightly different central/local balance of power. The Russian Federation doesn’t (for the most part) have the same centrifugal forces as the USSR held in by a strong central authoritarianism.

dandanua 4y ago

It's exactly what they want. They think that NATO won't attack Russian territory because of nukes. But direct NATO participation in Ukraine will be a victory for Putin's fascists regime in Russia. They will be screaming "we told you so", "NATO aggressive expansion", "bla bla bla", etc. This would be a justification for them to convert Russia into a total shithole like North Korea, but with "gods" at the top of power hierarchy.