4 ms·

It doesn't take much to trigger very bad things from escalating. Luckily comms are much more reliable now than when Arch Duke Ferdinand was assassinated. Also -

It doesn't take much to trigger very bad things from escalating. Luckily comms are much more reliable now than when Arch Duke Ferdinand was assassinated. Also - no one wants to blow up the planet which is what a direct NATO/Russia confrontation would look like.

mc32 4y ago
We can hope China would lean on Russia to keep them from doing anything stupid... On the other hand, they have not been much help in arresting Jung-un Kim's bellicose antics and he's a much smaller player, though tactically smarter.
- remarkEon 4y ago
  Why would China do this? NATO expending it’s arms and resources in a conflict with Russia in Europe means that hardware is unavailable for use in the Pacific theater.
  - mc32 4y ago
    Because they would not want this to escalate to a nuclear conflict even if it’s limited to “tactical” nukes. Such a conflict would impact world trade further and would harm their domestic agenda and policies. They want to avoid things which could contribute to internal instability.
  - marcusverus 4y ago
    In a world where the geostrategic situation can be largely broken down into "the west vs. the rest", Russia is basically China's only ally (in the sense that "the enemy of my enemy is my friend") of any consequence. While it's likely that a conflict between Russia and the West (NATO) would greatly weaken the West, it's also possible that the West could "win" such a conflict without taking serious damage (i.e. via regime change instead of war). There is no worse outcome for China than the replacement of a neutral/friendly regime in Russia with a pro-western one.
    - avmich 4y ago
      > There is no worse outcome for China than the replacement of a neutral/friendly regime in Russia with a pro-western one. It's also one of the best outcomes for Russia.
      - 988747 4y ago
        And is also completely unrealistic. Russia will never be "pro-western", no matter who rules it.
        avmich 4y ago
        Just imagine.
      - barelysapient 4y ago
        A more likely scenario is a broken up Russia. Russia’s boarders looked very different a few hundred years ago. And many of the countries Russia has taken land from in the past might lay claim to that territory of Russia falters.
    - pipodeclown 4y ago
      Just like russia was America's best friends during WWII, they still let them bleed dry before entering the war ensuring a sufficiently weakened Russia after the war.
  - ivan_gammel 4y ago
    In South-East Asia there’s plenty of hardware used by countries around China, many of them US allies. I also doubt that NATO would be seriously involved in conflicts in that region: too big logistical problem.
  - lesuorac 4y ago
    Probably because the NORTH ATLANTIC Treaty Organization isn't involved in the PACIFIC OCEAN so they don't care what NATO does. But they share a border with Russia so they're impacted by what Russia does.

mc32 4y ago

We can hope China would lean on Russia to keep them from doing anything stupid... On the other hand, they have not been much help in arresting Jung-un Kim's bellicose antics and he's a much smaller player, though tactically smarter.

remarkEon 4y ago
Why would China do this? NATO expending it’s arms and resources in a conflict with Russia in Europe means that hardware is unavailable for use in the Pacific theater.
- mc32 4y ago
  Because they would not want this to escalate to a nuclear conflict even if it’s limited to “tactical” nukes. Such a conflict would impact world trade further and would harm their domestic agenda and policies. They want to avoid things which could contribute to internal instability.
- marcusverus 4y ago
  In a world where the geostrategic situation can be largely broken down into "the west vs. the rest", Russia is basically China's only ally (in the sense that "the enemy of my enemy is my friend") of any consequence. While it's likely that a conflict between Russia and the West (NATO) would greatly weaken the West, it's also possible that the West could "win" such a conflict without taking serious damage (i.e. via regime change instead of war). There is no worse outcome for China than the replacement of a neutral/friendly regime in Russia with a pro-western one.
  - avmich 4y ago
    > There is no worse outcome for China than the replacement of a neutral/friendly regime in Russia with a pro-western one. It's also one of the best outcomes for Russia.
    - 988747 4y ago
      And is also completely unrealistic. Russia will never be "pro-western", no matter who rules it.
      - avmich 4y ago
        Just imagine.
    - barelysapient 4y ago
      A more likely scenario is a broken up Russia. Russia’s boarders looked very different a few hundred years ago. And many of the countries Russia has taken land from in the past might lay claim to that territory of Russia falters.
  - pipodeclown 4y ago
    Just like russia was America's best friends during WWII, they still let them bleed dry before entering the war ensuring a sufficiently weakened Russia after the war.
- ivan_gammel 4y ago
  In South-East Asia there’s plenty of hardware used by countries around China, many of them US allies. I also doubt that NATO would be seriously involved in conflicts in that region: too big logistical problem.
- lesuorac 4y ago
  Probably because the NORTH ATLANTIC Treaty Organization isn't involved in the PACIFIC OCEAN so they don't care what NATO does. But they share a border with Russia so they're impacted by what Russia does.