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I don't think this was intentional as real attack on Poland as that would take course which will not end up good either for Russia or for rest of the world. I s

I don't think this was intentional as real attack on Poland as that would take course which will not end up good either for Russia or for rest of the world. I see this as accident, until more information comes. And given similar accidents before, like India-Pakistan missile incident from this year [1] or crash of a drone in Zagreb [2] in March of this year - this will yield nothing. Edit: Another data point re accident: MH17 [3], Iran Air Flight 655 [4]. Both of those still yielded nothing. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_India%E2%80%93Pakistan_missile_incident https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_India%E2%80%93Pakistan_mi... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Zagreb_Tu-141_crash https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Zagreb_Tu-141_crash [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_17 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_17 [4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655

luckylion 4y ago
That's very likely. But of course, an accidental attack is still an attack. Will Russia stop attacking Poland and Ukraine? Doubtful, unless NATO makes it stop. Otherwise we can wait for the next "accident" where Russia fires missiles into NATO countries and murders people. All the while they're committing war crimes in Ukraine, day by day, for the world to see.
- Gumberclaus 4y ago
  These countries have been committing war crimes against one another for nine years now throughout this history of this proxy war. Why should we start caring now or sacrifice global stability because of two errant rockets? Your fear-based rhetoric about other NATO countries being targeted because of two errant rockets (rockets are unguided munitions btw, not cruise missiles) is ridiculous. Stop being a war monger.
woeirua 4y ago
One missile just crossing over the border is an accident. It's kind of hard to see how two missiles could cross the border by more than a few miles unintentionally. I mean, we are talking about Russian cruise missiles, so maybe their INUs are that bad, but still...
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- yrgulation 4y ago
  We _are_ talking about russian missiles, thats why no one is surprised they errored and are convinced this was an accident. The real question tho is why did our defence systems fail to intercept them?
  - piva00 4y ago
    They fell right at the border (barely 6-7km away from Ukraine), I'd assume that there is no air defense prepared to shoot a target that close to the border before it could hit the ground. Air defense isn't impenetrable.
- JumpCrisscross 4y ago
  > hard to see how two missiles could cross the border by more than a few miles unintentionally Given the state of the Russian armed forces, it's not entirely surprising their missile accuracy is in the tens of miles.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- Hamuko 4y ago
  We've had this masterpiece, so really anything is possible when it comes to Russian munitions and direction. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6IwqmezeSuQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6IwqmezeSuQ
  - playing_colours 4y ago
    They probably mixed target and launch coordinates when they programmed the missiles.
- jltsiren 4y ago
  Targeting error is always a possibility. Somebody read the map wrong and chose the wrong target without realizing it. No matter how much technology advances, warfare still involves incompetent idiots making choices under pressure based on partial and incorrect information. Sometimes those choices go wrong in a catastrophic way.
e40 4y ago
I agree, it's hard to tell if it was intentional. However, it might have been designed to be that way, as a test of the resolve of the West (US, really). It's just impossible to tell, which means we have to respond in a way that will stop Putin from pushing into Poland and other places, yet not pushing too hard on him that WW3 starts.
- Gumberclaus 4y ago
  Haven't we already been doing this? Here's a better idea - how about the US and everyone else GTFO of Ukraine and stop meddling in Eastern Europe? Biden and Kerry and the US have been doing it since the fall of the Berlin Wall and now we risk WWIII because these greedy politicians can't get enough kick backs from the US military industrial complex.
- lamontcg 4y ago
  So far the way the war is going I don't think we desperately need to respond to these missiles, and it may be a gambit to try to draw NATO more directly into the war for Russian domestic political consumption. Putin is losing right now, just continue to let him keep losing. That is going to be the course of action right now which is most damaging to him.
  - bryanlarsen 4y ago
    Russia is losing, but they aren't losing quickly. We'd likely see another 100,000 or more Ukrainian lives lost if we continue the current course.
    - lamontcg 4y ago
      Would you prefer several billion lives lost globally with WWIII? Unfortunately Ukrainians are going to have to do a lot of dying for us. We should definitely remember that debt in the future.
      - bryanlarsen 4y ago
Gumberclaus 4y ago
Let's all hope it yields nothing - the alternative risks article five and global peace. While I'm sure the war hawks in DC and in the white house / capitol building would love to start another world war, I'm not so eager to be thrust into one. I'm sure that sentiment is the same for most of the readers of HN.
k8t 4y ago
As a counterpoint to your data, the only one that hit a NATO country seems to be [2]. In that instance, nobody died.
petre 4y ago
It was an accident like the JDAM bombs that accidentally hit the Chinese embassy in Belgrade in 1999 and the Turkish F16 dawning a Russian Su-24 near the Syria-Turkish border in 2015. What this will only accomplish is another military aid package to Ukraine and who knows what it will be this time? Longer range ATACMS and MLRS rockets for HIMARS? Also THAAD and Patriot deployments to Poland.

luckylion 4y ago

That's very likely. But of course, an accidental attack is still an attack. Will Russia stop attacking Poland and Ukraine? Doubtful, unless NATO makes it stop. Otherwise we can wait for the next "accident" where Russia fires missiles into NATO countries and murders people. All the while they're committing war crimes in Ukraine, day by day, for the world to see.

Gumberclaus 4y ago
These countries have been committing war crimes against one another for nine years now throughout this history of this proxy war. Why should we start caring now or sacrifice global stability because of two errant rockets? Your fear-based rhetoric about other NATO countries being targeted because of two errant rockets (rockets are unguided munitions btw, not cruise missiles) is ridiculous. Stop being a war monger.

woeirua 4y ago

One missile just crossing over the border is an accident. It's kind of hard to see how two missiles could cross the border by more than a few miles unintentionally. I mean, we are talking about Russian cruise missiles, so maybe their INUs are that bad, but still...

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
yrgulation 4y ago
We _are_ talking about russian missiles, thats why no one is surprised they errored and are convinced this was an accident. The real question tho is why did our defence systems fail to intercept them?
- piva00 4y ago
  They fell right at the border (barely 6-7km away from Ukraine), I'd assume that there is no air defense prepared to shoot a target that close to the border before it could hit the ground. Air defense isn't impenetrable.
JumpCrisscross 4y ago
> hard to see how two missiles could cross the border by more than a few miles unintentionally Given the state of the Russian armed forces, it's not entirely surprising their missile accuracy is in the tens of miles.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
Hamuko 4y ago
We've had this masterpiece, so really anything is possible when it comes to Russian munitions and direction. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6IwqmezeSuQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6IwqmezeSuQ
- playing_colours 4y ago
  They probably mixed target and launch coordinates when they programmed the missiles.
jltsiren 4y ago
Targeting error is always a possibility. Somebody read the map wrong and chose the wrong target without realizing it. No matter how much technology advances, warfare still involves incompetent idiots making choices under pressure based on partial and incorrect information. Sometimes those choices go wrong in a catastrophic way.

e40 4y ago

I agree, it's hard to tell if it was intentional. However, it might have been designed to be that way, as a test of the resolve of the West (US, really). It's just impossible to tell, which means we have to respond in a way that will stop Putin from pushing into Poland and other places, yet not pushing too hard on him that WW3 starts.

Gumberclaus 4y ago
Haven't we already been doing this? Here's a better idea - how about the US and everyone else GTFO of Ukraine and stop meddling in Eastern Europe? Biden and Kerry and the US have been doing it since the fall of the Berlin Wall and now we risk WWIII because these greedy politicians can't get enough kick backs from the US military industrial complex.
lamontcg 4y ago
So far the way the war is going I don't think we desperately need to respond to these missiles, and it may be a gambit to try to draw NATO more directly into the war for Russian domestic political consumption. Putin is losing right now, just continue to let him keep losing. That is going to be the course of action right now which is most damaging to him.
- bryanlarsen 4y ago
  Russia is losing, but they aren't losing quickly. We'd likely see another 100,000 or more Ukrainian lives lost if we continue the current course.
  - lamontcg 4y ago
    Would you prefer several billion lives lost globally with WWIII? Unfortunately Ukrainians are going to have to do a lot of dying for us. We should definitely remember that debt in the future.
    - bryanlarsen 4y ago

Gumberclaus 4y ago

Let's all hope it yields nothing - the alternative risks article five and global peace. While I'm sure the war hawks in DC and in the white house / capitol building would love to start another world war, I'm not so eager to be thrust into one. I'm sure that sentiment is the same for most of the readers of HN.

k8t 4y ago

As a counterpoint to your data, the only one that hit a NATO country seems to be [2]. In that instance, nobody died.

petre 4y ago

It was an accident like the JDAM bombs that accidentally hit the Chinese embassy in Belgrade in 1999 and the Turkish F16 dawning a Russian Su-24 near the Syria-Turkish border in 2015. What this will only accomplish is another military aid package to Ukraine and who knows what it will be this time? Longer range ATACMS and MLRS rockets for HIMARS? Also THAAD and Patriot deployments to Poland.