5 ms·

Is this the start of WW3? How will NATO respond?

by IdealeZahlen 4y ago

yrgulation 4y ago
- v8xi 4y ago
  Ok I'll bite. Why would Germany sanction Poland for this?
  - yrgulation 4y ago
    They’ll find a reason, its how the EU works.
    - Quarrelsome 4y ago
      So your position is that Germany will find a reason to sanction Poland because Poland have been accidentally bombed by the Russian Federation? Sorry, I'm struggling to follow. Are you sure? Perhaps you are still championing the dated notion that Germany is over exposed to the Russian energy market and thus is in thrall to the Russian Federation? I thought since the Nord Stream exploderised that was no longer really the case.
      - yrgulation 4y ago
        I was beyond sarcastic, cant help it, i am sorry and i know it has no place here but the current state of affairs in the eu makes it too easy. On a serious note, you may want to read about german, and other western, companies’ russia “exits”: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/11/03/are-western-brands-as-serious-about-withdrawing-from-russia-as-they-appear-a79265 https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/11/03/are-western-brands... Cant find the link but apparently german carmakers expect to be back in about 5 years time (there is a clause in their exit contracts that they will be allowed to take back their assets after that amount of time).
        orf 4y ago
        > An unusual clause in their exit deals allows both Renault and Nissan to buy back their Russian assets within the next six years > These facts suggest that the apparent exit of both companies from Russia is reluctant and largely symbolic, with both optimistic that sanctions will be lifted at some point in the next few years, allowing them to seamlessly re-enter the Russian market Of course they will re-enter the Russian market. That was never in doubt, and it’s a very smart move to sign an exit deal allowing them to swiftly re-enter the market when it’s ready with all their places of operations nicely maintained for them. It seems that the people who signed that deal on the Russian side where negotiating from a position of weakness? The issue is if they will re-enter a market with Putin at its head and Ukraine subjugated. That seems increasingly unlikely.
        Quarrelsome 4y ago
        sorry but I fail to see what that article has to do with the discussion at play. I really would suggest losing the cryptic veneer and making your points a little more plainly because you've merely left me confused. At one point we're talking about a missile landing in Poland then suddenly Germany is chastising Poland for some inexplicable reason and now two multi-national car manufacturers have buy-back clauses to lessen the potential impact of their losses from having to dump operations in Russia. I'm really not seeing a biting narrative that connects these dots.
      - hdjjhhvvhga 4y ago
        The official stance of Polish state TV and the leading politician is that Germany is Poland's biggest enemy. It's partly empty rhetoric aimed at the older population (the main electorate of the currently ruling right-wing party) and partly the perception that bigger EU countries try to bully everyone else (even France got upset over the recent public help issue). The core of the issue in this particular case is that the ruling party tried to completely take over Polish courts in ways that were illegal both according to Polish and European law. The EU justly said they won't send the Next Generation EU money until Poland fixes this. The Polish Prime minister would agree to this, but the minister of justice said "over my dead body" - and without him the ruling party will not be able to have a majority rule. So the Polish ruling party accuses the EU, and the EU accuses them. Interesting to see how it plays out. In the meantime Poland is losing millions of euros because of one guy's big ego.
        deleted 4y ago
        [deleted]
o_m 4y ago
This is the first time I feel scared since it started. How does this get resolved?
- yrgulation 4y ago
  Relax, NATO is not made of barbarians, but Russia will pay for it in other ways than nukes and bombs. They’ll just remain in the dark ages for a bit longer. Like North Korea and Cuba. Unless of course their friends in NATO will try and weasel them back on the economic scene.
  - kodyo 4y ago
exitb 4y ago
They’ll strongly condemn. It was a mistake after all. What else should we do, strike a Russian village?
- JumpCrisscross 4y ago
  > What else should we do, strike a Russian village? Strengthen air defences. In practice, this means placing SAMs closer to Russia, which isn’t exactly stabilising.
  - Arrath 4y ago
    More Patriot batteries farther forward, on higher readiness. Give longer ranged munitions, like ATACMS, to Ukraine, along with intelligence pinpointing missile launch sites and let nature take its course.
    - hdjjhhvvhga 4y ago
      The problem is, Russia is deliberately shooting many of these from aircraft cruising over the Caspian Sea. Ukraine would need even longer range.
      - Arrath 4y ago
        Yeah, I was wondering if these were ALCMs or some form of ground launched platform.
- whitepaint 4y ago
  > It was a mistake after all How do you know that? Maybe it was intentional to test out how Nato responds.
  - exitb 4y ago
    It measures how NATO responds to singular strike on a random village, which isn’t very valuable knowledge.
datalopers 4y ago
No, this was an unintentional mistake by an incompetent Russia.
- ceejayoz 4y ago
  Yeah; this isn't the sort of thing you invoke Article 5 over. If anything, it gives NATO a fig leaf to give the Ukranians weapons systems they've held off thus far on, like ATACMS.
  - justsomehnguy 4y ago
    > it gives NATO a fig leaf to give the Ukranians weapons systems they've held off thus far on, like ATACMS. Cui prodest?
    - ceejayoz 4y ago
      Russia benefits from stupid conspiracy theories like "Poland blew themselves up".
      - justsomehnguy 4y ago
        Ah, of course, stupid russkies with their stupid conspiracy theories. Hint: where else S300 are in service, besides the Ukraine?
        ceejayoz 4y ago
        "The Ukraine" is a bit of a tell. That aside, two missiles supposedly hit; if one's an S-300, that strengthens the theory the Ukranians intercepted a Russian cruise missile. The Ukranians success on the battlefield makes false flag desperation pretty unlikely, especially with the risks to their aid in getting caught. Whatever happened was almost certainly unintentional.
        justsomehnguy 4y ago
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]

Is this the start of WW3? How will NATO respond?

yrgulation 4y ago

v8xi 4y ago
Ok I'll bite. Why would Germany sanction Poland for this?
- yrgulation 4y ago
  They’ll find a reason, its how the EU works.
  - Quarrelsome 4y ago
    So your position is that Germany will find a reason to sanction Poland because Poland have been accidentally bombed by the Russian Federation? Sorry, I'm struggling to follow. Are you sure? Perhaps you are still championing the dated notion that Germany is over exposed to the Russian energy market and thus is in thrall to the Russian Federation? I thought since the Nord Stream exploderised that was no longer really the case.
    - yrgulation 4y ago
      I was beyond sarcastic, cant help it, i am sorry and i know it has no place here but the current state of affairs in the eu makes it too easy. On a serious note, you may want to read about german, and other western, companies’ russia “exits”: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/11/03/are-western-brands-as-serious-about-withdrawing-from-russia-as-they-appear-a79265 https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/11/03/are-western-brands... Cant find the link but apparently german carmakers expect to be back in about 5 years time (there is a clause in their exit contracts that they will be allowed to take back their assets after that amount of time).
      - orf 4y ago
        > An unusual clause in their exit deals allows both Renault and Nissan to buy back their Russian assets within the next six years > These facts suggest that the apparent exit of both companies from Russia is reluctant and largely symbolic, with both optimistic that sanctions will be lifted at some point in the next few years, allowing them to seamlessly re-enter the Russian market Of course they will re-enter the Russian market. That was never in doubt, and it’s a very smart move to sign an exit deal allowing them to swiftly re-enter the market when it’s ready with all their places of operations nicely maintained for them. It seems that the people who signed that deal on the Russian side where negotiating from a position of weakness? The issue is if they will re-enter a market with Putin at its head and Ukraine subjugated. That seems increasingly unlikely.
      - Quarrelsome 4y ago
        sorry but I fail to see what that article has to do with the discussion at play. I really would suggest losing the cryptic veneer and making your points a little more plainly because you've merely left me confused. At one point we're talking about a missile landing in Poland then suddenly Germany is chastising Poland for some inexplicable reason and now two multi-national car manufacturers have buy-back clauses to lessen the potential impact of their losses from having to dump operations in Russia. I'm really not seeing a biting narrative that connects these dots.
    - hdjjhhvvhga 4y ago
      The official stance of Polish state TV and the leading politician is that Germany is Poland's biggest enemy. It's partly empty rhetoric aimed at the older population (the main electorate of the currently ruling right-wing party) and partly the perception that bigger EU countries try to bully everyone else (even France got upset over the recent public help issue). The core of the issue in this particular case is that the ruling party tried to completely take over Polish courts in ways that were illegal both according to Polish and European law. The EU justly said they won't send the Next Generation EU money until Poland fixes this. The Polish Prime minister would agree to this, but the minister of justice said "over my dead body" - and without him the ruling party will not be able to have a majority rule. So the Polish ruling party accuses the EU, and the EU accuses them. Interesting to see how it plays out. In the meantime Poland is losing millions of euros because of one guy's big ego.
      - deleted 4y ago
        [deleted]

o_m 4y ago

This is the first time I feel scared since it started. How does this get resolved?

yrgulation 4y ago
Relax, NATO is not made of barbarians, but Russia will pay for it in other ways than nukes and bombs. They’ll just remain in the dark ages for a bit longer. Like North Korea and Cuba. Unless of course their friends in NATO will try and weasel them back on the economic scene.
- kodyo 4y ago

exitb 4y ago

They’ll strongly condemn. It was a mistake after all. What else should we do, strike a Russian village?

JumpCrisscross 4y ago
> What else should we do, strike a Russian village? Strengthen air defences. In practice, this means placing SAMs closer to Russia, which isn’t exactly stabilising.
- Arrath 4y ago
  More Patriot batteries farther forward, on higher readiness. Give longer ranged munitions, like ATACMS, to Ukraine, along with intelligence pinpointing missile launch sites and let nature take its course.
  - hdjjhhvvhga 4y ago
    The problem is, Russia is deliberately shooting many of these from aircraft cruising over the Caspian Sea. Ukraine would need even longer range.
    - Arrath 4y ago
      Yeah, I was wondering if these were ALCMs or some form of ground launched platform.
whitepaint 4y ago
> It was a mistake after all How do you know that? Maybe it was intentional to test out how Nato responds.
- exitb 4y ago
  It measures how NATO responds to singular strike on a random village, which isn’t very valuable knowledge.

datalopers 4y ago

No, this was an unintentional mistake by an incompetent Russia.

ceejayoz 4y ago
Yeah; this isn't the sort of thing you invoke Article 5 over. If anything, it gives NATO a fig leaf to give the Ukranians weapons systems they've held off thus far on, like ATACMS.
- justsomehnguy 4y ago
  > it gives NATO a fig leaf to give the Ukranians weapons systems they've held off thus far on, like ATACMS. Cui prodest?
  - ceejayoz 4y ago
    Russia benefits from stupid conspiracy theories like "Poland blew themselves up".
    - justsomehnguy 4y ago
      Ah, of course, stupid russkies with their stupid conspiracy theories. Hint: where else S300 are in service, besides the Ukraine?
      - ceejayoz 4y ago
        "The Ukraine" is a bit of a tell. That aside, two missiles supposedly hit; if one's an S-300, that strengthens the theory the Ukranians intercepted a Russian cruise missile. The Ukranians success on the battlefield makes false flag desperation pretty unlikely, especially with the risks to their aid in getting caught. Whatever happened was almost certainly unintentional.
        justsomehnguy 4y ago

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]