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It is very difficult to be particularly brief. But the purpose of regulation is not to outlaw boom and bust, it was to stop TBTF...which it has largely done. B
by skippyboxedhero 4y ago
It is very difficult to be particularly brief. But the purpose of regulation is not to outlaw boom and bust, it was to stop TBTF...which it has largely done.
But the issue is that outlawing XYZ did absolutely nothing because there was still an economic rationale for that activity. So a lot of activity moved to PE funds, and other non-bank lenders.
The exact issue is that people think in the rear view mirror: we are in a cycle of "boom and bust" with banks...my guy, banks stopped being relevant years and years ago. But the problem now is: liquidity in markets has absolutely disappeared (current liquidity in USTs is as low as the depth of 2008, this is despite the market growing 5x since then), risk has moved to non-banks, etc. All these other side-effects have now been triggered.
Also, the financial instruments that "blew up" in 2008 were ones that investors were demanding. It is like blaming the guy who sells you a gun if you shoot someone, "why did you sell me this?". The reason why investors wanted these securities was because the demand for AAA securities in 03-04 was very high but the Fed drove rates down to 1% so large institutions were legally unable to meet liabilities. Obviously, there was other stuff going on but the underlying logic of things like CDO/CMOs is strong (almost every country in the world wishes they had a financial market like this, Denmark is the only other one, ironically the issue with not having securitization markets is that risk gets centralized in banks, people in the US think the 2008 bailout was crazy...countries like Germany, that have heavily centralized financial markets, have had to bail out banks three times since then). Unf, the lessons of 2008 largely haven't been learned (and this is despite the fact that the US had, by far, the best/least interventionist response).
- rtkwe 4y agoThere were some critical flaws in the logic though. The risk calculations for the synthetic CDOs that mixed the lower tiers of loans and that diversification magically made them suddenly prime ignored the possibility of any kind of event that would affect the market generally; say a recession or in this specific case lots of adjustable rate mortgages changing to higher rates when the initial rates expired? The idea of creating an instrument like that is fine but the analysis of the risk and the layering of them together created an impossible to analyze time bomb. Also no one sold me a CDO gun they sold someone else a gun and it threatened to sink the global economy riiiiight as I was going into college. Luckily software engineering weathered the period fairly well and I was able to get a job when I graduated in '13. These things don't just impact the buyers and sellers they incentivize and potentially warp the entire economy and when the sellers and buyers screw up they're not even left holding the bag.