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> To auto industry veterans, the company’s jaw-dropping achievement isn’t popularizing electric cars. That may have been inevitable as the consequences of clima

> To auto industry veterans, the company’s jaw-dropping achievement isn’t popularizing electric cars. That may have been inevitable as the consequences of climate change began to hit Americans. I find this so fascinating. I think there comes a point where an achievement is so monumental, that people stop comprehending it as a person's achievement and instead view it as a historical event. Then the achievement becomes "inevitable", because it was the march of history pushing the achievement forward. Being the CEO of a successful car company is an achievement. But revolutionizing the car industry itself is "inevitable".

blululu 4y ago
I’m not sure what planet the author is living on. 70 years of oligopoly would suggest otherwise. Seat belts, safety glass and steering columns that don’t harpoon the driver may have been inevitable as the consequences of dying in minor crashes began to hurt Americans, but it sure took a lot of dedicated people like Ralph Nader to make it so.
- vlovich123 4y ago
  I think the argument is which perspective you take. From the internal observe perspective, you actually have to do the thing for the thing to get done. Yes you need individuals. If you take an external observer perspective that collectively internal and external pressures cause individuals with talent and drive to go and tackle that problem. For example, even if you personally did absolutely nothing, Apple will still collectively create some new fangled device with new features, new performance etc etc. That’s literally true of every human endeavor - no person is doing it alone regardless of how pivotal they may seem. So then the question is “how pivotal is Musk personally”. Certainly Tesla existed outside of him but I think his accomplishment there was to make EV cars sexy and grow that industry from nothing despite headwinds. Would it have happened without him? Not sure. I’m not as bullish as the author given how Tesla really was a motivating force for them to get the show on the road and government regulations in the space are a joke (vs what is actually needed) and even still manufacturers are dragging their feet. So I think the author is right that “it would have happened anyway” but wrong about the scale of the specific impact Musk has had through Tesla.
ahahahahah 4y ago
- ahahahahah 4y ago
  In fact, though, given that for their first 15 years or so Tesla was willing to lose $10k+ per car, it seems likely to me that they actually delayed other car manufacturers from making more electric cars as those reasonable companies were unwilling to compete with someone willing to throw away that much money.
  - adwi 4y ago
    > Throw away that much money. Tesla built a $600B market cap as of today and spends $0/per car advertising. Seems like that was $10k/car well invested.
    - nwienert 4y ago
      What was FTXs market cap a month ago?
- dahfizz 4y ago
  Certainly the opportunity existed. Certain pre-conditions like battery tech and environmental concern were met. That doesn't detract from Musk's achievement. Toyota could have been making EVs since the early 2000's. Volvo, Nissan, and Ford all had EVs available before Teslas became widely available. If EVs were such a trivial eventuality, these companies would have been dominant players in that space. But Tesla went on to become the world's most valuable car company. Musk single handedly changed the public perception of EVs, and he kickstarted the entire industry. The major auto makers would not take EVs as seriously if not for him. I am not a Musk shill. I think he is unhinged. You can go through my comment history as proof of my dislike of Teslas if you care to. Starting a company and growing it to be one of the top 10 largest companies in the world is a massive achievement. Popularizing EVs is a massive achievement. Your opinions on Musk do not change that.
  - 4y ago
esjeon 4y ago
What made EV-as-an-industry financially feasible is the advancement in lithium battery technology, which by itself is fueled by the growth of the smart device industry. It's the parts that were changed, not the design of EV. Any details in today's EV design is optimization made for the sake of competition, and have nothing to do with the modern form-factor, if there's any. (It's still the same motor-connected-to-battery from (probably) early 1900s.) The actual achievement should look like how Apple nailed the modern smartphone form-factor. Hardware-wise, LG did it first with their Prada phone, but Apple polished it with matching software and UX. Even though each component was already explored by others, Apple still had to come up with a working combination. That's an achievement. Anyways, back to Tesla. Tesla didn't really achieve anything about EV. The real achievement of Tesla is car-as-smart-platform (which engulfs the entirety of self-driving). AFAIK, this is difficult on ICE cars due to mechanical and business reasons, but Telsa could avoid them by building on EV. Now this is a real new thing. IIRC, this is also what Elon has always been emphasizing. It's more than just an EV company.

blululu 4y ago

I’m not sure what planet the author is living on. 70 years of oligopoly would suggest otherwise. Seat belts, safety glass and steering columns that don’t harpoon the driver may have been inevitable as the consequences of dying in minor crashes began to hurt Americans, but it sure took a lot of dedicated people like Ralph Nader to make it so.

vlovich123 4y ago
I think the argument is which perspective you take. From the internal observe perspective, you actually have to do the thing for the thing to get done. Yes you need individuals. If you take an external observer perspective that collectively internal and external pressures cause individuals with talent and drive to go and tackle that problem. For example, even if you personally did absolutely nothing, Apple will still collectively create some new fangled device with new features, new performance etc etc. That’s literally true of every human endeavor - no person is doing it alone regardless of how pivotal they may seem. So then the question is “how pivotal is Musk personally”. Certainly Tesla existed outside of him but I think his accomplishment there was to make EV cars sexy and grow that industry from nothing despite headwinds. Would it have happened without him? Not sure. I’m not as bullish as the author given how Tesla really was a motivating force for them to get the show on the road and government regulations in the space are a joke (vs what is actually needed) and even still manufacturers are dragging their feet. So I think the author is right that “it would have happened anyway” but wrong about the scale of the specific impact Musk has had through Tesla.

ahahahahah 4y ago

ahahahahah 4y ago
In fact, though, given that for their first 15 years or so Tesla was willing to lose $10k+ per car, it seems likely to me that they actually delayed other car manufacturers from making more electric cars as those reasonable companies were unwilling to compete with someone willing to throw away that much money.
- adwi 4y ago
  > Throw away that much money. Tesla built a $600B market cap as of today and spends $0/per car advertising. Seems like that was $10k/car well invested.
  - nwienert 4y ago
    What was FTXs market cap a month ago?
dahfizz 4y ago
Certainly the opportunity existed. Certain pre-conditions like battery tech and environmental concern were met. That doesn't detract from Musk's achievement. Toyota could have been making EVs since the early 2000's. Volvo, Nissan, and Ford all had EVs available before Teslas became widely available. If EVs were such a trivial eventuality, these companies would have been dominant players in that space. But Tesla went on to become the world's most valuable car company. Musk single handedly changed the public perception of EVs, and he kickstarted the entire industry. The major auto makers would not take EVs as seriously if not for him. I am not a Musk shill. I think he is unhinged. You can go through my comment history as proof of my dislike of Teslas if you care to. Starting a company and growing it to be one of the top 10 largest companies in the world is a massive achievement. Popularizing EVs is a massive achievement. Your opinions on Musk do not change that.
- 4y ago

esjeon 4y ago

What made EV-as-an-industry financially feasible is the advancement in lithium battery technology, which by itself is fueled by the growth of the smart device industry. It's the parts that were changed, not the design of EV. Any details in today's EV design is optimization made for the sake of competition, and have nothing to do with the modern form-factor, if there's any. (It's still the same motor-connected-to-battery from (probably) early 1900s.) The actual achievement should look like how Apple nailed the modern smartphone form-factor. Hardware-wise, LG did it first with their Prada phone, but Apple polished it with matching software and UX. Even though each component was already explored by others, Apple still had to come up with a working combination. That's an achievement. Anyways, back to Tesla. Tesla didn't really achieve anything about EV. The real achievement of Tesla is car-as-smart-platform (which engulfs the entirety of self-driving). AFAIK, this is difficult on ICE cars due to mechanical and business reasons, but Telsa could avoid them by building on EV. Now this is a real new thing. IIRC, this is also what Elon has always been emphasizing. It's more than just an EV company.