4 ms·

Like Teslas?

oblio 4y ago
Yeah, but then we run into another problem. If Tesla truly wants to remain a luxury brand forever, its market cap should reflect that. It shouldn't be the market cap of the next Toyota (car maker) and Panasonic (battery maker) combined and multiplied by 10.
- KptMarchewa 4y ago
  AFAIK, they eventually want to provide "Model 2" for about 60-70% of Model 3 price. They need to scale up their whole operations to be able to profit off of that.
  - oblio 4y ago
    Yes, they probably want that. And they also want pie in the sky. The Model 3 was launched in July 2017, about 5.5 years ago. Unveiling in April 2016, more than 6.5 years ago. During the unveiling, if I'm not wrong, they announced the $35k Model 3. In 2019 they actually released the $35k Model 3, as more of a publicity stunt, since they pulled it after only 2 months. Back then €1 was about $1.2, so that price would have been about €24k. Instead, in the real world of today, where €1 is less than $1, the cheapest Model 3 you can buy in Europe is about €54k. So at the new exchange rate, it's more than twice as expensive, and even with the old exchange rate, it would have still been $45k (about 30% more expensive). So the "Model 2" will actually be around the price that was promised for Model 3. More than that, Tesla is notoriously unreliable regarding forecasts. At this point I don't think the Model 3 will ever be back to $35k/€35k. And this new "Model 2" will probably be launched 10 years from now and it will cost what the Model 3 was supposed to cost, back in 2017. I don't know about you, but I don't make my plans around stuff that takes 15 years to be ready (5.5 years until now + the likely 10 more years it takes them to launch it).
    - KptMarchewa 4y ago
      >Yes, they probably want that. And they also want pie in the sky. That was being said about literally every Musk venture, either failed or successful. >The Model 3 was launched in July 2017, about 5.5 years ago. Unveiling in April 2016, more than 6.5 years ago. During the unveiling, if I'm not wrong, they announced the $35k Model 3. In 2019 they actually released the $35k Model 3, as more of a publicity stunt, since they pulled it after only 2 months. >Back then €1 was about $1.2, so that price would have been about €24k. >Instead, in the real world of today, where €1 is less than $1, the cheapest Model 3 you can buy in Europe is about €54k. >So at the new exchange rate, it's more than twice as expensive, and even with the old exchange rate, it would have still been $45k (about 30% more expensive). Blame ECB (for currency value drop) and supply and demand. Turns out enough people want to buy 35k€ vehicle for 54k€. >And this new "Model 2" will probably be launched 10 years from now and it will cost what the Model 3 was supposed to cost, back in 2017. Yeah, but who cares? The purchasing power of that will be equal to what it would have cost based on original estimates.
      - oblio 4y ago
        Did you miss the "10 years from now" part? :-) We call that "vaporware", not worth discussing.
        KptMarchewa 4y ago
        Yes, but this is only your projection, not a fact. Purely based on last 2 years of pandemic and extreme supply disruption, combined with wars and other geopolitics dangers.
- spywaregorilla 4y ago
  I'm don't get why people care about market cap, but for what it's worth, tesla sits at about 2-3x those two companies combined. And panasonic is "just" a 20 billion dollar market cap company.
  - oblio 4y ago
    > tesla sits at about 2-3x those two companies combined Now, when it fell about 50%. I was just behind the news. At a certain point this graph was true: https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/US-Tesla-market-cap-v-top-10_2021-10-25-.png https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/US-Tesla-m... Which was just insane. Why do people care about market cap? Because it shows mindshare. It shows what people care about and where investments should go, preorders, a lot of that stuff. Plus market cap can be converted into money (not 1:1, but still).

Like Teslas?

Yeah, but then we run into another problem. If Tesla truly wants to remain a luxury brand forever, its market cap should reflect that. It shouldn't be the market cap of the next Toyota (car maker) and Panasonic (battery maker) combined and multiplied by 10.

KptMarchewa 4y ago
AFAIK, they eventually want to provide "Model 2" for about 60-70% of Model 3 price. They need to scale up their whole operations to be able to profit off of that.
- oblio 4y ago
  Yes, they probably want that. And they also want pie in the sky. The Model 3 was launched in July 2017, about 5.5 years ago. Unveiling in April 2016, more than 6.5 years ago. During the unveiling, if I'm not wrong, they announced the $35k Model 3. In 2019 they actually released the $35k Model 3, as more of a publicity stunt, since they pulled it after only 2 months. Back then €1 was about $1.2, so that price would have been about €24k. Instead, in the real world of today, where €1 is less than $1, the cheapest Model 3 you can buy in Europe is about €54k. So at the new exchange rate, it's more than twice as expensive, and even with the old exchange rate, it would have still been $45k (about 30% more expensive). So the "Model 2" will actually be around the price that was promised for Model 3. More than that, Tesla is notoriously unreliable regarding forecasts. At this point I don't think the Model 3 will ever be back to $35k/€35k. And this new "Model 2" will probably be launched 10 years from now and it will cost what the Model 3 was supposed to cost, back in 2017. I don't know about you, but I don't make my plans around stuff that takes 15 years to be ready (5.5 years until now + the likely 10 more years it takes them to launch it).
  - KptMarchewa 4y ago
    >Yes, they probably want that. And they also want pie in the sky. That was being said about literally every Musk venture, either failed or successful. >The Model 3 was launched in July 2017, about 5.5 years ago. Unveiling in April 2016, more than 6.5 years ago. During the unveiling, if I'm not wrong, they announced the $35k Model 3. In 2019 they actually released the $35k Model 3, as more of a publicity stunt, since they pulled it after only 2 months. >Back then €1 was about $1.2, so that price would have been about €24k. >Instead, in the real world of today, where €1 is less than $1, the cheapest Model 3 you can buy in Europe is about €54k. >So at the new exchange rate, it's more than twice as expensive, and even with the old exchange rate, it would have still been $45k (about 30% more expensive). Blame ECB (for currency value drop) and supply and demand. Turns out enough people want to buy 35k€ vehicle for 54k€. >And this new "Model 2" will probably be launched 10 years from now and it will cost what the Model 3 was supposed to cost, back in 2017. Yeah, but who cares? The purchasing power of that will be equal to what it would have cost based on original estimates.
    - oblio 4y ago
      Did you miss the "10 years from now" part? :-) We call that "vaporware", not worth discussing.
      - KptMarchewa 4y ago
        Yes, but this is only your projection, not a fact. Purely based on last 2 years of pandemic and extreme supply disruption, combined with wars and other geopolitics dangers.
spywaregorilla 4y ago
I'm don't get why people care about market cap, but for what it's worth, tesla sits at about 2-3x those two companies combined. And panasonic is "just" a 20 billion dollar market cap company.
- oblio 4y ago
  > tesla sits at about 2-3x those two companies combined Now, when it fell about 50%. I was just behind the news. At a certain point this graph was true: https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/US-Tesla-market-cap-v-top-10_2021-10-25-.png https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/US-Tesla-m... Which was just insane. Why do people care about market cap? Because it shows mindshare. It shows what people care about and where investments should go, preorders, a lot of that stuff. Plus market cap can be converted into money (not 1:1, but still).