3 ms·

>We need a PID controller running the markets. Only half joking. See Gosplan ([1]). They kind of tried. It will work better with an implementation that has mor

by krasin 4y ago

>We need a PID controller running the markets. Only half joking. See Gosplan ([1]). They kind of tried. It will work better with an implementation that has more silicon than humans, but it will still be miserable on the edges. 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gosplan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gosplan

s3000 4y ago
For more silicon, see Project Cybersyn [1]. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Cybersyn https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Cybersyn
syntaxing 4y ago
This is extremely interesting. Is there a good book you recommend on this topic?
- krasin 4y ago
  One of the best minds of that epoch that worked on the problem was Leonid Kantorovich ([1]). From wikipedia: "He is regarded as the founder of linear programming. He was the winner of the Stalin Prize in 1949 and the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences in 1975." In that respect, any book about linear programming is a good start. The problem with the approach used back in the time was a slow feedback loop (5-10 years) and inability to adjust to externalities, including technology changes. That should be possible to improve with our modern tech, but I am not aware of any good contemporary books about it - if someone knows one, I would appreciate a reference myself. Edit: from the CIA file on Kantorovich ([2]): "In addition to his mathematical research, Kantorovich has been directly involved in developing improved designs for high-speed digital computers, an activity apparently motivated by the Soviet Union's need for improved computers in solving large economic planning problems" " 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leonid_Kantorovich https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leonid_Kantorovich 2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leonid_Kantorovich#/media/File:Espionage_den04_40.png https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leonid_Kantorovich#/media/File...
- discarded1023 4y ago
  "Red Plenty" by Francis Spufford. Many pointers from Google: https://www.google.com/search?q=red+plenty https://www.google.com/search?q=red+plenty It's a fictionalised history of some Soviet economics. There's a chapter on Kantorovich (cf the sibling comment). It goes reasonably deep (not mathematically deep) and provides a lot of context. Great book from a great author. Don't be put off by the "Soviet" part -- it's very entertaining.
  - selimthegrim 4y ago
    The part in there about death rates is not mathematically sound.
MikePlacid 4y ago
> See Gosplan I’ve seen a lot of Gosplan computer center. We were borrowing “untouched” versions of software for Soviet bloc-produced IBM-compatible mainframes there. At the exit there was a KGB post, they were checking for a permission for every single bit of paper that was being carried out. But we were not carrying paper, we were carrying magnetic tapes, and our contact at GVC (“the main computing center of”) Gosplan was too lazy to go get a permission for them. So I tucked a magnetic tape behind my belt and buttoned up my coat. Not a single time I was stopped. GVC Gosplan had a full detailed data on the Soviet economy and I could have potentially carried any secret data away. But we were not carrying any secret data, we were carrying OS/360 21.8 and later on - VM/370 (do not remember the exact version for that, sorry). So, while Gosplan was planning and financing the production and distribution of the “adapted for socialism” version of OS/360 (re)named ОС ЕС - their own computing center (and everyone else who could have got it) were using the original OS/360. I wonder if any mathematical model can handle such a situation properly.
- krasin 4y ago
  Fascinating story! But yes - the mathematical beauty of a planned economy model is often negated by sheer incompetence and corruption of the planner.
  - ilyt 4y ago
    Every system will have corruption so the only one that will actually work is one that is at least somewhat resistant to it
  - MikePlacid 4y ago
    The problem goes a bit deeper than just competence vs incompetence of the planner. The planner is a person. A person looks at the mathematical recommendation - and sees that it is cruel: a project should be closed, a lot of people should be laid off. In capitalism, no cruel decision is yours completely: “market forced me to do it”. Brezhnev time Soviet leaders were probably less cruel than an ordinary American capitalist. So the effective economy was out of question. Also, to be cruel is not enough. You should have a political power to implement an effective solution. Political power is based on relationships. Suppose mathematics says: person A’s project should be reduced, person B’s project should be funded more. But: person A is your guy, and person B is of your rival’s camp. Will you follow the math? It’s probably a theorem: in a planned economy a recommendation that reduces the political power of a person that has the political power to implement it - will never be implemented…

by krasin 4y ago

s3000 4y ago

For more silicon, see Project Cybersyn [1]. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Cybersyn https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Cybersyn

syntaxing 4y ago

This is extremely interesting. Is there a good book you recommend on this topic?

krasin 4y ago
One of the best minds of that epoch that worked on the problem was Leonid Kantorovich ([1]). From wikipedia: "He is regarded as the founder of linear programming. He was the winner of the Stalin Prize in 1949 and the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences in 1975." In that respect, any book about linear programming is a good start. The problem with the approach used back in the time was a slow feedback loop (5-10 years) and inability to adjust to externalities, including technology changes. That should be possible to improve with our modern tech, but I am not aware of any good contemporary books about it - if someone knows one, I would appreciate a reference myself. Edit: from the CIA file on Kantorovich ([2]): "In addition to his mathematical research, Kantorovich has been directly involved in developing improved designs for high-speed digital computers, an activity apparently motivated by the Soviet Union's need for improved computers in solving large economic planning problems" " 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leonid_Kantorovich https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leonid_Kantorovich 2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leonid_Kantorovich#/media/File:Espionage_den04_40.png https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leonid_Kantorovich#/media/File...
discarded1023 4y ago
"Red Plenty" by Francis Spufford. Many pointers from Google: https://www.google.com/search?q=red+plenty https://www.google.com/search?q=red+plenty It's a fictionalised history of some Soviet economics. There's a chapter on Kantorovich (cf the sibling comment). It goes reasonably deep (not mathematically deep) and provides a lot of context. Great book from a great author. Don't be put off by the "Soviet" part -- it's very entertaining.
- selimthegrim 4y ago
  The part in there about death rates is not mathematically sound.

MikePlacid 4y ago

> See Gosplan I’ve seen a lot of Gosplan computer center. We were borrowing “untouched” versions of software for Soviet bloc-produced IBM-compatible mainframes there. At the exit there was a KGB post, they were checking for a permission for every single bit of paper that was being carried out. But we were not carrying paper, we were carrying magnetic tapes, and our contact at GVC (“the main computing center of”) Gosplan was too lazy to go get a permission for them. So I tucked a magnetic tape behind my belt and buttoned up my coat. Not a single time I was stopped. GVC Gosplan had a full detailed data on the Soviet economy and I could have potentially carried any secret data away. But we were not carrying any secret data, we were carrying OS/360 21.8 and later on - VM/370 (do not remember the exact version for that, sorry). So, while Gosplan was planning and financing the production and distribution of the “adapted for socialism” version of OS/360 (re)named ОС ЕС - their own computing center (and everyone else who could have got it) were using the original OS/360. I wonder if any mathematical model can handle such a situation properly.

krasin 4y ago
Fascinating story! But yes - the mathematical beauty of a planned economy model is often negated by sheer incompetence and corruption of the planner.
- ilyt 4y ago
  Every system will have corruption so the only one that will actually work is one that is at least somewhat resistant to it
- MikePlacid 4y ago
  The problem goes a bit deeper than just competence vs incompetence of the planner. The planner is a person. A person looks at the mathematical recommendation - and sees that it is cruel: a project should be closed, a lot of people should be laid off. In capitalism, no cruel decision is yours completely: “market forced me to do it”. Brezhnev time Soviet leaders were probably less cruel than an ordinary American capitalist. So the effective economy was out of question. Also, to be cruel is not enough. You should have a political power to implement an effective solution. Political power is based on relationships. Suppose mathematics says: person A’s project should be reduced, person B’s project should be funded more. But: person A is your guy, and person B is of your rival’s camp. Will you follow the math? It’s probably a theorem: in a planned economy a recommendation that reduces the political power of a person that has the political power to implement it - will never be implemented…