> All great so-called "prescient" people are, in my view, just those attentive to features of their contemporary environment that they regard as long-term. Wel

> All great so-called "prescient" people are, in my view, just those attentive to features of their contemporary environment that they regard as long-term. Well surely not all but most-certainly some. Difference between seeing and knowing; difference between predictions and previsions. Certainly I think being attentive and being able to see patterns is part of both sets of skills, which don't have to be exclusive. Thanks for fleshing out your (what I assume to be) predictions and insights a bit more. Makes sense. On that, my reaction is: I want that to be a take that can be dismissed as being pessimistic, rather than real. But I think if we look at human history, the pessimistic take is real: it's the hope that we actually better than we seem to be that's unrealistic. It's got me thinking: where should I go to avoid the coming wars? Another note is, I think the quality of your insights deserves a better presentation: the way you write it up here is a bit rough. I think if you edited it and presented it better it would really do it justice. As for myself and this topic, I really haven't regarded it much (I think I prefer not to think about such possibilities), and I suppose that's why I'm interested to see takes by people who care to.