Post-hoc is right. First he predicts (pre 2019) that crypto won't amount to anything. This is his true belief. Then in 2020s with crypto mania he gets carrie

Post-hoc is right. First he predicts (pre 2019) that crypto won't amount to anything. This is his true belief. Then in 2020s with crypto mania he gets carried away and writes a bunch of articles saying how it can be great. Now with one exchange failing, he retreats back to his cave of "oh there's nothing here after all". In some ways, he's just a jpg of the past decades' stock charts -- an interesting compression of the past, but not great at predicting the future. If he were better, he could do something like pick undervalued growth stocks, or do sector allocation. The equivalent of global macro for technologies. He doesn't do anything close to it, and that tells you all you need to know about the future predictive power of his theories.