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That's something I also don't get. I've read most of his posts which appear on HN, but I don't quite get the point of it, or these kind of post hoc analyses in
by googlryas 4y ago
That's something I also don't get. I've read most of his posts which appear on HN, but I don't quite get the point of it, or these kind of post hoc analyses in general.
Some events happen with with parties A,B, and C. Party X later writes a story about why A-C did those things. These narratives may give us the illusion of comprehension, but how do we determine the truth of them, versus just a plausible but incorrect story.
Not to sound like a pragmatist, because I do believe there is a benefit to non practical arts, but do these blogs help us predict future events? If they don't, are they just providing an illusion of order on a disorderly, mind bogglingly complex world?
- DenisM 4y agoPerhaps they help us compress complex memories into compact narratives?
- metacritic12 4y agoPost-hoc is right. First he predicts (pre 2019) that crypto won't amount to anything. This is his true belief. Then in 2020s with crypto mania he gets carried away and writes a bunch of articles saying how it can be great. Now with one exchange failing, he retreats back to his cave of "oh there's nothing here after all". In some ways, he's just a jpg of the past decades' stock charts -- an interesting compression of the past, but not great at predicting the future. If he were better, he could do something like pick undervalued growth stocks, or do sector allocation. The equivalent of global macro for technologies. He doesn't do anything close to it, and that tells you all you need to know about the future predictive power of his theories.