I work as a data scientist in the grocery industry, specifically (at least for the past six months) on sales forecasts. Even for relatively short-term forecasts

I work as a data scientist in the grocery industry, specifically (at least for the past six months) on sales forecasts. Even for relatively short-term forecasts accuracy is surprisingly low, even with lots of data and the most up-to-date forecasting methods, applied by smart people (those who aren't me). I'm not at all surprised that companies can't see precisely when downturns will happen.