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Talking about narratives and Elon Musk, I think that the man has been given a pass by too many people for too long. He has been strangely avoiding scrutiny on

Talking about narratives and Elon Musk, I think that the man has been given a pass by too many people for too long. He has been strangely avoiding scrutiny on many of his grandiose promises and I believe that Tesla stock (and thus most of his fortune) is built on hype.

programmarchy 4y ago
Getting people hyped on green technology has a ton of value.
- stephc_int13 4y ago
  I think this is a large part of why he is getting a pass.
- browningstreet 4y ago
  It's been a while since that was his primary storyline w/r/t Tesla.
  - programmarchy 4y ago
    Was it ever the main storyline? Clean energy isn't sexy compared to the low rumble of a gas-powered V8. Heck, even "safe" cars aren't sexy. "My car has the highest NHTSA rating, m'lady!" But fast cars are sexy, and so are high-tech self-driving cars. So of course that's the storyline used to build hype. The promise of FSD is an acceptable "noble lie" to drive adoption of green tech.
  - ZeroGravitas 4y ago
    I think he does a lot of stuff wrong, but between home and grid batteries, solar roof tiles, superchargers, virtual power plants, the cars and the semi, I'd they're doing okay on the 'getting people excited about green tech' score. If anything, I wish he'd spend a bit more of his time and energy on that kind of thing.
kjksf 4y ago
Tesla is the largest maker of EV cars in the world. Last quarter they were more profitable that GM, Ford and Toyota. They are growing car production and revenues 50%, on average, for over a decade. Profits even faster. On a PEG ratio Tesla stock is undervalue compared to companies that are growing profits much less than Tesla's 100% YoY growth last quarter (companies like Amazon). Tell me more about "hype".
- jrm4 4y ago
  Sure. This is definitely hype. For all the fancy numbers you've thrown out there, I see absolutely nothing that strongly indicates that what's going to happen is "Tesla will be a big car manufacturer, competitive with the others." Don't tell me things in terms of money -- we've already gotten the lesson that Musk is adept at the "money raising/moving game," whether it's stocks or crypto or gov't money. Take all that away. What's the story of "vehicles on the road?" What's going on with exploding batteries and cybertrucks and adoption. (Maybe it is better than it looks from me, someone who doesn't much care) but what I'm seeing as Teslas is "a niche product for rich people." Personally, I probably won't buy any EV unless it comes from a name I know, like Toyota -- they build bulletproof (damn near literally) vehicles that JUST WORK ALL THE TIME.
- stephc_int13 4y ago
  If I am not mistaken, Telsa stock is currently worth more than all other car manufacturers combined, while selling a small fraction of the total vehicles, with no huge margin.
twobitshifter 4y ago
On the other hand, the world is jumping to conclusions on the Twitter purchase. It's supposedly failed already while the author continues to use it, and cites a /tweet/ as being the first domino to fall on FTX. Don’t give Musk a pass, but don’t write the book on the Twitter purchase after a couple weeks either. The author also thinks twitter can’t advertise because of a non relaxed posture while tweeting. In my experience twitter ads get more interaction because people see an ad and jump to comment on it. The typing “posture” in this case can be a benefit. The negative is that some want to criticize the company instead of buying anything. Electric cars get comments about how it can’t tow a boat 600 miles and gas cars get comments about how they’re ruining the planet.
- saghm 4y ago
  Twitter was already the go-to place for real-time news like you mention, and yet it's pretty much always been unprofitable. In his first week running Twitter, his big idea for monetization failed because he apparently was unaware people are willing to lie on the internet. If he knows how to run the company better than the people before him, he's doing a good job hiding it.

programmarchy 4y ago

Getting people hyped on green technology has a ton of value.

stephc_int13 4y ago
I think this is a large part of why he is getting a pass.
browningstreet 4y ago
It's been a while since that was his primary storyline w/r/t Tesla.
- programmarchy 4y ago
  Was it ever the main storyline? Clean energy isn't sexy compared to the low rumble of a gas-powered V8. Heck, even "safe" cars aren't sexy. "My car has the highest NHTSA rating, m'lady!" But fast cars are sexy, and so are high-tech self-driving cars. So of course that's the storyline used to build hype. The promise of FSD is an acceptable "noble lie" to drive adoption of green tech.
- ZeroGravitas 4y ago
  I think he does a lot of stuff wrong, but between home and grid batteries, solar roof tiles, superchargers, virtual power plants, the cars and the semi, I'd they're doing okay on the 'getting people excited about green tech' score. If anything, I wish he'd spend a bit more of his time and energy on that kind of thing.

kjksf 4y ago

Tesla is the largest maker of EV cars in the world. Last quarter they were more profitable that GM, Ford and Toyota. They are growing car production and revenues 50%, on average, for over a decade. Profits even faster. On a PEG ratio Tesla stock is undervalue compared to companies that are growing profits much less than Tesla's 100% YoY growth last quarter (companies like Amazon). Tell me more about "hype".

jrm4 4y ago
Sure. This is definitely hype. For all the fancy numbers you've thrown out there, I see absolutely nothing that strongly indicates that what's going to happen is "Tesla will be a big car manufacturer, competitive with the others." Don't tell me things in terms of money -- we've already gotten the lesson that Musk is adept at the "money raising/moving game," whether it's stocks or crypto or gov't money. Take all that away. What's the story of "vehicles on the road?" What's going on with exploding batteries and cybertrucks and adoption. (Maybe it is better than it looks from me, someone who doesn't much care) but what I'm seeing as Teslas is "a niche product for rich people." Personally, I probably won't buy any EV unless it comes from a name I know, like Toyota -- they build bulletproof (damn near literally) vehicles that JUST WORK ALL THE TIME.
stephc_int13 4y ago
If I am not mistaken, Telsa stock is currently worth more than all other car manufacturers combined, while selling a small fraction of the total vehicles, with no huge margin.

twobitshifter 4y ago

On the other hand, the world is jumping to conclusions on the Twitter purchase. It's supposedly failed already while the author continues to use it, and cites a /tweet/ as being the first domino to fall on FTX. Don’t give Musk a pass, but don’t write the book on the Twitter purchase after a couple weeks either. The author also thinks twitter can’t advertise because of a non relaxed posture while tweeting. In my experience twitter ads get more interaction because people see an ad and jump to comment on it. The typing “posture” in this case can be a benefit. The negative is that some want to criticize the company instead of buying anything. Electric cars get comments about how it can’t tow a boat 600 miles and gas cars get comments about how they’re ruining the planet.

saghm 4y ago
Twitter was already the go-to place for real-time news like you mention, and yet it's pretty much always been unprofitable. In his first week running Twitter, his big idea for monetization failed because he apparently was unaware people are willing to lie on the internet. If he knows how to run the company better than the people before him, he's doing a good job hiding it.