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Is there a more general framework for understanding when a sudden amount of variation is expected and perhaps rational? The analogy is very loose, but this make

by abeppu 4y ago

Is there a more general framework for understanding when a sudden amount of variation is expected and perhaps rational? The analogy is very loose, but this makes me think a bit of the cambrian explosion, or periods when a sudden environmental shift is followed by a profusion of new species. When a new 'space' is opened, it seems like a range of things can try to fill it, until one strategy becomes dominant, at least until conditions change?

hn_throwaway_99 4y ago
Glad to see this comment - the Cambrian explosion analogy was the exact one that came to mind for me, and I actually think, as you put it, the same dynamics are in play. Lots of different approaches are taken until it is clear that, after time, one is dominant and the best. I remember when the iPhone first came out the whole "tapping on glass" keyboard was highly controversial, but it soon won out (and, IMO, especially because it allows swipe typing). As an aside, this comment from the tweet thread is genius: "I call this one the Shyamalan because of the unnecessary twist".
- karamanolev 4y ago
  My impression is not that swipe typing is the winner, but because of configurability of the keyboard (different language layouts) and the option to use the screen estate for other purposes (e.g. when watching videos). The latter is particularly important, as the screen-to-body ratio is critical in those devices.
bombcar 4y ago
The end result is often called a "local maximum" and what you've pointed out happens time and time again. Cars underwent something similar very early on, but by the time we got to the "Model T" era it was pretty much determined what they would look like.
- bitwize 4y ago
  After the Model T there was still variety in style and design building on the basic formula... up until the present day when everybody seems to have settled on the same basic bean-shaped blob, specialty vehicles such as sports cars and pickups excepted. Bigger or smaller beans account for body variations from subcompact to crossover, and the name Cadillac, which once conjured images of limo-like luxury, today means a fancier bean.
  - bombcar 4y ago
    Someone had a bunch of "parking lots from the ages" from the Model T era, the 50s, and to today, and what was interesting is how similar all the vehicles looked each time.
  - njarboe 4y ago
    Check out the Cadillac Escalade. That is the Cadillac that is still used for limos and the high end models sure shoot for limo-like luxury. I have not been in one inside, so I don't know how well they hit that mark though. Not a bean shaped blob.
- TremendousJudge 4y ago
  Arguably, the Model A is the first modern car, moreso than the Model T, which has a lot of quirks that would be unrecognizable to today's drivers. For example, it didn't even had a throttle pedal, and choosing the gears is done through a bizantine system that includes a "reverse pedal". In a Model T you get this distinct impression of riding on top of the car instead of inside it, and it has many other things like this. By comparison, the Model A is remarkably similar to the cars of today, except much more primitive of course.
yafbum 4y ago
This happens in the growth phase of an industry lifecycle. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/industrylifecycle.asp https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/industrylifecycle.asp. During the growth phase, investors value companies not based on the money they can make today, but on the money they might make tomorrow. This encourages risk-taking, and results in large amounts of variation in the market. It is followed by maturity, a feature of which is consolidation (incl reduction in choice and variation as the less profitable options are weeded out). Until the next disruption...
tomcam 4y ago
You nailed it. This had to happen. As phones got smarter, no one knew how to optimize the UI for so many new features. Everyone knew that a certain form factor would win out eventually, but no one knew what it was. Everyone knew that whoever got it right first might dominate the market. The only logical thing was to iterate constantly, and blindly. Much the same thing happened with the personal computer market from the late 70s until the mid 90s or so.

by abeppu 4y ago

hn_throwaway_99 4y ago

Glad to see this comment - the Cambrian explosion analogy was the exact one that came to mind for me, and I actually think, as you put it, the same dynamics are in play. Lots of different approaches are taken until it is clear that, after time, one is dominant and the best. I remember when the iPhone first came out the whole "tapping on glass" keyboard was highly controversial, but it soon won out (and, IMO, especially because it allows swipe typing). As an aside, this comment from the tweet thread is genius: "I call this one the Shyamalan because of the unnecessary twist".

karamanolev 4y ago
My impression is not that swipe typing is the winner, but because of configurability of the keyboard (different language layouts) and the option to use the screen estate for other purposes (e.g. when watching videos). The latter is particularly important, as the screen-to-body ratio is critical in those devices.

bombcar 4y ago

The end result is often called a "local maximum" and what you've pointed out happens time and time again. Cars underwent something similar very early on, but by the time we got to the "Model T" era it was pretty much determined what they would look like.

bitwize 4y ago
After the Model T there was still variety in style and design building on the basic formula... up until the present day when everybody seems to have settled on the same basic bean-shaped blob, specialty vehicles such as sports cars and pickups excepted. Bigger or smaller beans account for body variations from subcompact to crossover, and the name Cadillac, which once conjured images of limo-like luxury, today means a fancier bean.
- bombcar 4y ago
  Someone had a bunch of "parking lots from the ages" from the Model T era, the 50s, and to today, and what was interesting is how similar all the vehicles looked each time.
- njarboe 4y ago
  Check out the Cadillac Escalade. That is the Cadillac that is still used for limos and the high end models sure shoot for limo-like luxury. I have not been in one inside, so I don't know how well they hit that mark though. Not a bean shaped blob.
TremendousJudge 4y ago
Arguably, the Model A is the first modern car, moreso than the Model T, which has a lot of quirks that would be unrecognizable to today's drivers. For example, it didn't even had a throttle pedal, and choosing the gears is done through a bizantine system that includes a "reverse pedal". In a Model T you get this distinct impression of riding on top of the car instead of inside it, and it has many other things like this. By comparison, the Model A is remarkably similar to the cars of today, except much more primitive of course.

yafbum 4y ago

This happens in the growth phase of an industry lifecycle. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/industrylifecycle.asp https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/industrylifecycle.asp. During the growth phase, investors value companies not based on the money they can make today, but on the money they might make tomorrow. This encourages risk-taking, and results in large amounts of variation in the market. It is followed by maturity, a feature of which is consolidation (incl reduction in choice and variation as the less profitable options are weeded out). Until the next disruption...

tomcam 4y ago

You nailed it. This had to happen. As phones got smarter, no one knew how to optimize the UI for so many new features. Everyone knew that a certain form factor would win out eventually, but no one knew what it was. Everyone knew that whoever got it right first might dominate the market. The only logical thing was to iterate constantly, and blindly. Much the same thing happened with the personal computer market from the late 70s until the mid 90s or so.