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Now we get the cascade of exchange failures, followed by the absolute collapse of all Crypto prices. If you have any money on the exchanges now is the time to

Now we get the cascade of exchange failures, followed by the absolute collapse of all Crypto prices. If you have any money on the exchanges now is the time to get out.

ProjectArcturis 4y ago
Anything aside from BTC and ETH is worthless. It'll be interesting to see what happens to their prices. I suppose it will depend a lot on interest rates.
- kranke155 4y ago
  Polkadot and Algorand are worthless ? Maybe they don’t have the ecosystem yet but they are serious projects that didn’t get ridiculous VC backing.
  - bookaway 4y ago
    >that didn’t get ridiculous VC backing. 144 mil on an ICO off the bat is not ridiculous? Whatever its technical merits are, if Polkadot skyrocketed more than other altcoins (10x in 15 months) the reason was probably due to the cult of personality around Gavin Wood. If you're "a co-founder of Ethereum" in a crypto boom, you're probably riding the wave at the top.
    - kranke155 4y ago
      Was that a private or a public ICO? Just saying that Polkadot actually works, true it could be super centralised that way I’m not sure about it’s history. But the Kusama / Polkadot combo has delivered, its not a memecoin with no utility. And of course there’s always Tezos, which has imo the only organic NFT market out there.
- glofish 4y ago
  Crypto will never be worthless! People mistakenly believe that the two option you have are valuable or zero. Instead it is a scale from positive to negative value. For example a legislation to have bitcoin "pay for" the environment damage could lead to it having a negative value. Working with and spending effort on a coin that goes to zero is a loss of productivity and opportunity of not doing something useful. Again the real cost is non-zero.
  - bornfreddy 4y ago
    > For example a legislation to have bitcoin "pay for" the environment damage could lead to it having a negative value. I'll bite. So basically, owner would have to pay more than they would get to sell their Bitcoin? I'm sure nobody would do that, so the price is effectively capped at zero and can't go lower.
  - WXLCKNO 4y ago
    > For example a legislation to have bitcoin "pay for" the environment damage could lead to it having a negative value. Lol this is beyond absurd.
    - archontes 4y ago
      It's a perfectly sensible statement. Bitcoin provides value in the form of moving money from A to B, which is a service people are happy to pay some amount for, and (arguably) being a store of value. Bitcoin's value, derived from its utility, is quantifiable, most easily by comparison to other items that provide the same utility. Bitcoin has a cost, as well. The undercover economist might tell you that it fails to charge for an externality, namely its climate impact. It's entirely possible that, were that exernality priced in, the cost to operate bitcoin might exceed the value it provides relative to other providers, which would give it net negative value.
      - ProjectArcturis 4y ago
        In which case it would stop transacting and the value would be zero.
        archontes 4y ago
        Correct. In the case that it stops transacting, the value of bitcoin as a system would be zero. In the case where the costs are larger than the value produced, but are not paid by the bitcoin system (external, you might say), then it would still have net negative value, but continue to operate.
        4y ago
- Aaronstotle 4y ago
  Missing Monero
JTon 4y ago
I agree in general. Crypto winter is here and appears to be getting worse. But I also am a frequent listener of Darknet Diaries podcast and basically every shady exchange of money online is facilitated in crypto. So it has a non-zero value.
- glofish 4y ago
  This is a great point - crypto will have utility. But for whom? What how much is that utility really worth? And what kind of utility? That is what keeps shifting and what all the pro-contra propaganda is about. In fact the bitcoin could even have negative utility, where getting someone stuck holding bitcoin is good for someone else. Imagine that ... not just that bitcoin goes to zero, but could go into negative even!
  - pirate787 4y ago
    The net present value of Bitcoin is likely negative, as there's substantial cost (billions of dollars per year depending on the current price of BTC) in maintaining the mining infrastructure that makes the network happen.
- kmac_ 4y ago
  How to spin a new con coin in 4 easy steps: 1. Mine a bunch of new hashes. 2. Fake liquidity by selling to yourself - bonus points if you make it appear that the price is rising by selling/buying for more $. 3. When naive folks shout "it's raising to the moon!" and buy the crap - drop all what you have from the step one. 4. Profit - Lambo is yours!
misja111 4y ago
If nobody can withdraw their funds the Crypto prices can only go up, not?
- nopenopenopeno 4y ago
  Exchange users are the only ones who cannot withdraw their funds. Bitcoin users can always withdraw their funds.
  - misja111 4y ago
    How? You can't change them for dollars/euro's/.. without an exchange? I guess you could sell them to a private person but then it wouldn't effect the BTC/USD rate.
    - nopenopenopeno 4y ago
      You can exchange BTC all you want, but if you exchange (verb) it then it’s no longer BTC. Likewise, if it’s sitting on an exchange (noun) then it’s not BTC. Normally I would have sympathy but if you post on HN then I have trouble taking it seriously that you can’t figure this out. How could it possibly be any more obvious?
      - misja111 4y ago
        > .. if it’s sitting on an exchange (noun) then it’s not BTC. I'm sorry but you lost me here. If I stall my BTC's in a wallet on an exchange, they remain BTC's? Also I have a feeling that you're not getting my point. It is the selling/buying of BTC's for USD at the BTC exchanges that determines the official BTC/USD rate. Sure you can also exchange them for something else (if the exchange lets you), but this will not affect the BTC/USD rate. So if on an your exchange you're unable to withdraw your BTC's, you can't sell them, which means you're unable to affect the BTC/USD rate: I.E. BTC price will not go down.
  - isolli 4y ago
    What kind of off-ramp can they use?
tbrownaw 4y ago
> If you have any money on the exchanges now is the time to get out. No, last week was the time to get out. By the time everyone knows it's time to get out, it's already to late.
- legutierr 4y ago
  In the case of bankruptcy, the clawback period can be 90 days or more. So, it was probably too late back in September.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]

Now we get the cascade of exchange failures, followed by the absolute collapse of all Crypto prices. If you have any money on the exchanges now is the time to get out.

ProjectArcturis 4y ago

Anything aside from BTC and ETH is worthless. It'll be interesting to see what happens to their prices. I suppose it will depend a lot on interest rates.

kranke155 4y ago
Polkadot and Algorand are worthless ? Maybe they don’t have the ecosystem yet but they are serious projects that didn’t get ridiculous VC backing.
- bookaway 4y ago
  >that didn’t get ridiculous VC backing. 144 mil on an ICO off the bat is not ridiculous? Whatever its technical merits are, if Polkadot skyrocketed more than other altcoins (10x in 15 months) the reason was probably due to the cult of personality around Gavin Wood. If you're "a co-founder of Ethereum" in a crypto boom, you're probably riding the wave at the top.
  - kranke155 4y ago
    Was that a private or a public ICO? Just saying that Polkadot actually works, true it could be super centralised that way I’m not sure about it’s history. But the Kusama / Polkadot combo has delivered, its not a memecoin with no utility. And of course there’s always Tezos, which has imo the only organic NFT market out there.
glofish 4y ago
Crypto will never be worthless! People mistakenly believe that the two option you have are valuable or zero. Instead it is a scale from positive to negative value. For example a legislation to have bitcoin "pay for" the environment damage could lead to it having a negative value. Working with and spending effort on a coin that goes to zero is a loss of productivity and opportunity of not doing something useful. Again the real cost is non-zero.
- bornfreddy 4y ago
  > For example a legislation to have bitcoin "pay for" the environment damage could lead to it having a negative value. I'll bite. So basically, owner would have to pay more than they would get to sell their Bitcoin? I'm sure nobody would do that, so the price is effectively capped at zero and can't go lower.
- WXLCKNO 4y ago
  > For example a legislation to have bitcoin "pay for" the environment damage could lead to it having a negative value. Lol this is beyond absurd.
  - archontes 4y ago
    It's a perfectly sensible statement. Bitcoin provides value in the form of moving money from A to B, which is a service people are happy to pay some amount for, and (arguably) being a store of value. Bitcoin's value, derived from its utility, is quantifiable, most easily by comparison to other items that provide the same utility. Bitcoin has a cost, as well. The undercover economist might tell you that it fails to charge for an externality, namely its climate impact. It's entirely possible that, were that exernality priced in, the cost to operate bitcoin might exceed the value it provides relative to other providers, which would give it net negative value.
    - ProjectArcturis 4y ago
      In which case it would stop transacting and the value would be zero.
      - archontes 4y ago
        Correct. In the case that it stops transacting, the value of bitcoin as a system would be zero. In the case where the costs are larger than the value produced, but are not paid by the bitcoin system (external, you might say), then it would still have net negative value, but continue to operate.
      - 4y ago
Aaronstotle 4y ago
Missing Monero

JTon 4y ago

I agree in general. Crypto winter is here and appears to be getting worse. But I also am a frequent listener of Darknet Diaries podcast and basically every shady exchange of money online is facilitated in crypto. So it has a non-zero value.

glofish 4y ago
This is a great point - crypto will have utility. But for whom? What how much is that utility really worth? And what kind of utility? That is what keeps shifting and what all the pro-contra propaganda is about. In fact the bitcoin could even have negative utility, where getting someone stuck holding bitcoin is good for someone else. Imagine that ... not just that bitcoin goes to zero, but could go into negative even!
- pirate787 4y ago
  The net present value of Bitcoin is likely negative, as there's substantial cost (billions of dollars per year depending on the current price of BTC) in maintaining the mining infrastructure that makes the network happen.
kmac_ 4y ago
How to spin a new con coin in 4 easy steps: 1. Mine a bunch of new hashes. 2. Fake liquidity by selling to yourself - bonus points if you make it appear that the price is rising by selling/buying for more $. 3. When naive folks shout "it's raising to the moon!" and buy the crap - drop all what you have from the step one. 4. Profit - Lambo is yours!

misja111 4y ago

If nobody can withdraw their funds the Crypto prices can only go up, not?

nopenopenopeno 4y ago
Exchange users are the only ones who cannot withdraw their funds. Bitcoin users can always withdraw their funds.
- misja111 4y ago
  How? You can't change them for dollars/euro's/.. without an exchange? I guess you could sell them to a private person but then it wouldn't effect the BTC/USD rate.
  - nopenopenopeno 4y ago
    You can exchange BTC all you want, but if you exchange (verb) it then it’s no longer BTC. Likewise, if it’s sitting on an exchange (noun) then it’s not BTC. Normally I would have sympathy but if you post on HN then I have trouble taking it seriously that you can’t figure this out. How could it possibly be any more obvious?
    - misja111 4y ago
      > .. if it’s sitting on an exchange (noun) then it’s not BTC. I'm sorry but you lost me here. If I stall my BTC's in a wallet on an exchange, they remain BTC's? Also I have a feeling that you're not getting my point. It is the selling/buying of BTC's for USD at the BTC exchanges that determines the official BTC/USD rate. Sure you can also exchange them for something else (if the exchange lets you), but this will not affect the BTC/USD rate. So if on an your exchange you're unable to withdraw your BTC's, you can't sell them, which means you're unable to affect the BTC/USD rate: I.E. BTC price will not go down.
- isolli 4y ago
  What kind of off-ramp can they use?

tbrownaw 4y ago

> If you have any money on the exchanges now is the time to get out. No, last week was the time to get out. By the time everyone knows it's time to get out, it's already to late.

legutierr 4y ago
In the case of bankruptcy, the clawback period can be 90 days or more. So, it was probably too late back in September.

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]