4 ms·

Tell me about it. After just a few years of high birth rates, it has now become virtually impossible for us to find a Kindergarten for our daughter, public or p

by lqet 4y ago

Tell me about it. After just a few years of high birth rates, it has now become virtually impossible for us to find a Kindergarten for our daughter, public or private, although the law clearly states that she is entitled to one. According to latest estimates, there will be a lack of 400.000 Kindergarten places in 2023 here [0]. Demographics predicted falling birth rates for decades, and politicians acted accordingly. Turns out even demographers cannot predict the future. The basic problem seems to be that it takes longer to educate a kindergarten teacher than for a child to reach kindergarten age. I fear a complete collapse of the school system here in 2026. [0] https://www.spiegel.de/panorama/bildung/bertelsmann-studie-fuer-2023-fehlen-fast-400-000-kitaplaetze-in-deutschland-a-42665fec-f6a1-41a6-a4bd-66efcc3e5fda https://www.spiegel.de/panorama/bildung/bertelsmann-studie-f...

akmarinov 4y ago
In my country - if your child can't get into a kindergarten, the government pays you the equivalent of the monthly government fee that they'd pay to the kindergarten to you, so that you can use it towards a private kindergarten/nanny.
- bowsamic 4y ago
  Here in Germany even the private options have ran out
- the_mitsuhiko 4y ago
  In Austria the limiting factor you are running into will be the actual teachers. You can get a nanny just fine, but public and private Kindergartens alike are running into staffing issues. From what I have heard, that is a shared problem in many countries.
- lqet 4y ago
  That sounds great. Even without this financial help, we would happily pay hundreds of euros out of our own pocket for a private nanny or kindergarten. We have lost half or our net income already because my wife stays at home now. But there are no free places. None. And we have been looking for 1,5 years.
- onion2k 4y ago
  In my country - if your child can't get into a kindergarten, the government pays you the equivalent of the monthly government fee that they'd pay to the kindergarten to you, so that you can use it towards a private kindergarten/nanny. If you can privately educate every child one-to-one for the same cost of sending them to a kindergarten then something is seriously wrong with the economics of school funding. Simple economies of scale should mean you're not going to get much more than 1/10th of what it actually costs, right?
  - akmarinov 4y ago
    Oh yeah, it doesn't cover a lot towards either the private kindergarten or nanny. It's more of a "if we don't have the space, you at least get the same value monetarily as other people, since you pay your taxes to have access to this".
vidarh 4y ago
Germany has had a below replacement fertility rate since about 1970, and still has a fertility rate far below replacement [1]. That it has risen slightly and so slowed the decline, is true, but that started more than 25 years ago, and it's still far below replacement. So this is not about failure to predict birth rates, but failure to act coupled with birth rates not being the only driver for demand for nursery spaces in any country with immigration. (And like pretty much any developed country, Germany is going to find itself increasingly in need of more immigration to deal with an aging population and low fertility rates) [1] https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/DEU/germany/fertility-rate https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/DEU/germany/fertility-...
- lqet 4y ago
  True, but in my state (BW), the 2021 birth rate was the highest in 50 years, and it has been higher than expected since 2016. Even if you have only 10,000 more newborns in year than expected, and assuming that 95% of these children are going to attend kindergarten at age 3 (as they currently are), you need a thousand more additional kindergarten teachers (assuming a teacher/children ratio of 1/10). This would've been a massive problem even without immigration.
  - vidarh 4y ago
    I'm not at all doubting it's a problem, but it's a problem with poor risk management. The increase in birth rate in 2021 was around 5% it seems. If you don't have the slack in the system to handle a variation that small, or a plan to address it fast enough, then all kinds of other things could also mess it up.
dotancohen 4y ago
> Turns out even demographers cannot predict the future. And yet, they are confident enough to state that “There will never be more children alive on the Earth than there is today.”

by lqet 4y ago

akmarinov 4y ago

In my country - if your child can't get into a kindergarten, the government pays you the equivalent of the monthly government fee that they'd pay to the kindergarten to you, so that you can use it towards a private kindergarten/nanny.

bowsamic 4y ago
Here in Germany even the private options have ran out
the_mitsuhiko 4y ago
In Austria the limiting factor you are running into will be the actual teachers. You can get a nanny just fine, but public and private Kindergartens alike are running into staffing issues. From what I have heard, that is a shared problem in many countries.
lqet 4y ago
That sounds great. Even without this financial help, we would happily pay hundreds of euros out of our own pocket for a private nanny or kindergarten. We have lost half or our net income already because my wife stays at home now. But there are no free places. None. And we have been looking for 1,5 years.
onion2k 4y ago
In my country - if your child can't get into a kindergarten, the government pays you the equivalent of the monthly government fee that they'd pay to the kindergarten to you, so that you can use it towards a private kindergarten/nanny. If you can privately educate every child one-to-one for the same cost of sending them to a kindergarten then something is seriously wrong with the economics of school funding. Simple economies of scale should mean you're not going to get much more than 1/10th of what it actually costs, right?
- akmarinov 4y ago
  Oh yeah, it doesn't cover a lot towards either the private kindergarten or nanny. It's more of a "if we don't have the space, you at least get the same value monetarily as other people, since you pay your taxes to have access to this".

vidarh 4y ago

Germany has had a below replacement fertility rate since about 1970, and still has a fertility rate far below replacement [1]. That it has risen slightly and so slowed the decline, is true, but that started more than 25 years ago, and it's still far below replacement. So this is not about failure to predict birth rates, but failure to act coupled with birth rates not being the only driver for demand for nursery spaces in any country with immigration. (And like pretty much any developed country, Germany is going to find itself increasingly in need of more immigration to deal with an aging population and low fertility rates) [1] https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/DEU/germany/fertility-rate https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/DEU/germany/fertility-...

lqet 4y ago
True, but in my state (BW), the 2021 birth rate was the highest in 50 years, and it has been higher than expected since 2016. Even if you have only 10,000 more newborns in year than expected, and assuming that 95% of these children are going to attend kindergarten at age 3 (as they currently are), you need a thousand more additional kindergarten teachers (assuming a teacher/children ratio of 1/10). This would've been a massive problem even without immigration.
- vidarh 4y ago
  I'm not at all doubting it's a problem, but it's a problem with poor risk management. The increase in birth rate in 2021 was around 5% it seems. If you don't have the slack in the system to handle a variation that small, or a plan to address it fast enough, then all kinds of other things could also mess it up.

dotancohen 4y ago

> Turns out even demographers cannot predict the future. And yet, they are confident enough to state that “There will never be more children alive on the Earth than there is today.”