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I may be a few days early, but I think it's the beginning of the end for crypto. It's going to burn a lot of people. Trust will never be restored.
by gonzo41 4y ago
I may be a few days early, but I think it's the beginning of the end for crypto. It's going to burn a lot of people. Trust will never be restored.
- simsspoons 4y agoOr maybe it’s the beginning of the end for centralized exchanges
- smt88 4y agoThen it's also the end of crypto as a consumer product. Centralized exchanges offered a ton of usability and monetary incentives that brought people into crypto. Trying to rebuild a user base without those things will essentially be impossible. Even during the days of free money in 2021, the full crypto user base wasn't huge. With high interest rates, tons of fraud in the rearview mirror, and enormous obstacles to usage, the community will be a tiny fraction of even its previous tiny fraction of traditional banking customers.
- tsimionescu 4y agoIs there any real alternative for money (dollars) to make it into and out of the system, at large scale?
- ac29 4y agoStablecoins
- tsimionescu 4y agoHow exactly will you turn 1USD into 1USDT or 1USDC or vice-versa without opening an account with a centralized exchange?
- europeanguy 4y agoStablecoins are great. Personally I recommend USD.
- pavlov 4y agoAnd where do you cash them out? At Tether’s Bahamas office?
- pjc50 4y ago(+) Note: must be a non-US person, minimum transaction $101,000
- csomar 4y ago$10-100K: You can P2P your way through your local discord channel, paxful or gift cards. $100K-$1m: At this point, you are looking at a heavily regulated exchange or an OTC trader. Those exists (ie: Gemini). $1m+: Deal OTC directly with an "exchanger" that has a banking license. (There is one in WY)
- lupire 4y agoAt <$100K, what is the %loss due to fraud?
- saberdancer 4y agoExchanges are not a problem. If FTX kept to their ToS they would have all the funds available and there would be no collapse. But they were greedy, decided to use user funds without authorization, then lost them and the whole thing came coming down. Exchange which is transparent and truly does not trade with customer assets has no risk involved (other than hacking and similar) and should/would be a massive money printing machine.
- 3a2d29 4y agoI think you underestimate how attractive “get rich quick” schemes are, especially to new generations that didn’t experience the fad yet.
- gonzo41 4y agoInstitutional investors are starting to get burned. I think it's over. But yes I agree on your broader point. Money for no work is always attractive.
- EGreg 4y agoIsn't that what VCs have been doing all the way through Web2? Now it's just democratized. But at least Web2 led to tech that served a lot of people, until it got commoditized. Crypto doesn't really have great applications yet. (With a few exceptions.) I seem to remember Softbank propping up companies like WeWork... and spectacularly losing money. Even this year they lost a lot. Uber and many others were basically money-losing unit economics being propped up by ever larger infusions of money until the stocks were dumped on the eager public in an IPO. But at least the corporations serve people. https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10000872396390443720204578004980476429190 https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10000872396390443720204578004... How were Adam Neumann, Travis Kalanick and Elizabeth Holmes any better than these crypto bros? The online advertising industry is in a constant race to the bottom. Look at how much Facebook and Google dropped relative to, say, Apple and Verizon. Throughout all this, the open source community in Web1, Web2, Web3 has been building some amazing stuff, but people like to create business models to dump
- TheOtherHobbes 4y agoNeumann, Kalanick, and Holmes are the same kind of person as these crypto bros. People still seem to think they're an aberration. They're not. The entire modern economy is fundamentally scammy. Especially, but not exclusively, the financial industry. Crypto is just the stinky tip of an iceberg of fraud and predatory exploitation which goes all the way from top to bottom.
- tux 4y agoI agree, I think crypto won't survive for too much longer. Just by looking at BTC price for the last six months it dropped -14,201.80 (47.23%)[1] and just in one day -434.70 (2.67%). I'll take about six more months to one year but BTC will cost below 5k soon :) This is my prediction. [1] https://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=btc+price https://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=btc+price
- hiq 4y agoBy just looking at prices, you'd think that tech also won't survive much longer.
- irusensei 4y agoSo Bitcoin stops processing blocks at 5k USD. I had no idea this could happen.
- paulgb 4y agoIt doesn’t stop processing blocks, miners just make less money for each one. Some miners will pull out of the market, making it easier for the rest to mine, until the market finds an equilibrium. The cost of attacking the system will go down, but it won’t stop entirely. Some miners are already spending more on energy & operations cost per coin than the market value, so even if the price holds I expect to see some miners drop out of the market.
- lupire 4y ago-75% in 1 year is a more impressive number. -0% in 2 years is a less impressive number.
- pixel_tracing 4y agoYou underestimate the number of fools involved who will forget this incident
- sgt101 4y agoThere's a counter to that : https://www.proserveit.com/blog/five-monkeys-experiment-lessons https://www.proserveit.com/blog/five-monkeys-experiment-less...
- gst 4y agoI'm not going to predict any crypto future, but here's a counter point: If crypto has a future (not saying it will) then it's essential to drive bad actors out of the market (which is happening right now).
- pbourke 4y agoWhat if nearly everyone is a bad actor?
- BuyMyBitcoins 4y agoPerhaps crypto is just like those ecosystems in Australia that require conflagrations in order for the forest to live through its life cycle.
- lupire 4y agoWhat if there is no forest?
- saberdancer 4y agoI am very amazed that crypto prices have not plummeted after FTX revelations. That looks like a very big condemnation of the whole system and the market barely moved. I am not convinced it will end crypto, a lot of people still want to speculate and the system is too extensive to topple easily. Market not moving seems to be proof of that.
- zeroclip 4y agoBeginning of the end for unregulated centralized exchanges. Possible beginning for DeFi and regulated CEXes. Or possible that regulators fail to distinguish them, and crypto stays flat for some years until a trad banking event revived interest in blockchain. But really who cares? Smart contracts and stablecoins can continue to work the same no matter market volatility.
- lupire 4y ago> Smart contracts and stablecoins can continue to work the same no matter market volatility. Even ignoring the constant hacks of smart contracts, work for what purpose?
- zeroclip 4y agoA lot of the same things that these failing CEXes are doing. Custody of coins, trading, exchanging tokens, long and short positions, borrowing and lending. Most people on FTX are day traders or hodlers.
- coffeeblack 4y agoAnother year, another “the end of crypto” prediction. Oh well.