So I think (and this is I admit largely based on my opinion, I don't have good data for or against) that punishment is less of a deterrent so much as _how much

So I think (and this is I admit largely based on my opinion, I don't have good data for or against) that punishment is less of a deterrent so much as _how much there is to lose_ from the punishment... Note I don't mean (just) financial loss, but also how much the punishment will damage ones standard of living. For example, someone who was living in absolute poverty might get involved with a gang both for physical protection and to be able to live even somewhat comfortably by being involved in the drug trade; and from there may get involved in some amount of violent crime in order to maintain that life... Now the gain for me here is relatively speaking pretty high (get a much higher standard of living) and if they do go to prison, well, as shitty as prison is I already would be living a pretty shitty life outside of it (be barely or unable to pay bills, would live in an area with a decent amount of violent crime so being scared of violence in prison is comparatively less of a big deal, etc) Contrast this to "person from rich background commits fraud to become richer". If the penalty is "they lose their ill gotten gains and have to live in their comfortable home for 18 months" that... isn't risking very much either, so that isn't a strong disincentive. However if the penalty is serious prison time, the kind of fines that would absolutely ruin them, etc. then doing crime again carries significant risk My theory as to why punishment isn't a disincentive is largely that for serious crimes the risk of it happening isn't high enough, and the punishment isn't extreme enough for it to matter for people in poverty who would be inclined to crime... and because we punish white collar crime so rarely and so lightly the risk and severity of punishment is too low to discourage that as well. Obviously how this is corrected depends on which you are trying to address. For "low class" crime (drug dealing, etc) we already punish pretty severely as a society, and raising the standard of living for our poorest would probably have more impact (they'd have less to gain and more to lose). For white collar type crimes more severe punishment (so something significant beyond what was gained by the crime is lost) would probably be an affective disincentive. Again though, this is just my opinion based on my imagining of what would motivate me to commit crime