4 ms·
(Archive link for parent article, for anyone who cant get past the paywall: https://archive.ph/uk2L8 https://archive.ph/uk2L8) I agree with you, and in partic
by kjellsbells 4y ago
(Archive link for parent article, for anyone who cant get past the paywall: https://archive.ph/uk2L8 https://archive.ph/uk2L8)
I agree with you, and in particular I have a worry that corporate real estate is a bloodbath whose extent is not yet revealed. WFH has destroyed the need for knowledge workers to cluster in a downtown office and all CFOs must be wondering how they can get out of their leases as soon as they expire, not only to save some costs but also to keep workers who like WFH happy (played right between HR head, CEO, and CFO, it could be touted as a benefit to employees that also saves the company money)
SFO vacancy rates are about 15% right now (source: https://www.nar.realtor/blogs/economists-outlook/metro-office-vacancy-rates-q3-2022 https://www.nar.realtor/blogs/economists-outlook/metro-offic...). NYC, 13%, double pre-COVID. See the link for the data source.
There will be many ways to read this data and if I knew which way the wind was blowing I'd obviously be out there making a killing on CBRE instead of typing this post, but if this trend stays, then cities will undergo huge shifts again. I don't predict the death of the city (cities have gone from being based on geographic confluence, to defensive importance, to transport hubs, to industrial centers, to mercantile centers, to confluences of knowledge workers, and they will adapt again) but it's goijng to be a bumpy ride.
- dv_dt 4y agoGiven how behind so many metro areas were on building housing, the thing that makes the most usage sense is conversion of less in demand office space into residential space. That will eventually balance the office rents too. WFH is less of an influence if you can get office space close to residential space. Particularly in cities where a lot of people do enjoy the city social scene anyway.
- EricDeb 4y agogreat point. it seems only natural these should be converted to residential
- perpetualpatzer 4y agoIt does, but it can be expensive enough as to be prohibitive [0]. For example, offices tend to have fewer water hookups, fewer breakers (meaning high construction costs to repurpose) and wide floors (meaning lots of windowless units). [0]https://cre.moodysanalytics.com/insights/cre-trends/office-to-apartment-conversions/ https://cre.moodysanalytics.com/insights/cre-trends/office-t...
- rdtwo 4y agoAnd back to disease and drug vectors