142 ms·

I mean, I have probably loaded and driven heavier loads than you have. This analogy is about as strained as it gets.

by mwint 4y ago

mindslight 4y ago
Perhaps. It wasn't an analogy, but rather a vibrant reference to the concept of oscillation. Your original comment declares a simplistic version of "working" based around having reached one specific condition, while writing off the dynamic system behavior and other effects that occurred while getting to this point. Now, do we have reasons to be believe that this oscillation between shortage and surplus will grow or diminish? Will the next half-cycle of the oscillation create negative qualitative effects, even if it is ultimately diminishing? I'm not saying there are easy answers to those questions, but we're better off being able to ask them.
- mwint 4y ago
  Maybe we can ask a related question: How can we profit from these oscillations? If they're predictable, there should be an arbitrage opportunity.
  - MrMan 4y ago
    I just bought a shipping container so I am doing my part
    - deleted 4y ago
      [deleted]
  - heavenlyblue 4y ago
    How about you suggest an actual business plan than an abstract idea?
  - losteric 4y ago
    Doesn't arbitrage reflect pricing inefficiency? What is inefficient in container pricing? I can certainly see opportunity to profit through stock market inefficiencies. Eg transportation stocks that were overpriced on supply chain FUD
  - toast0 4y ago
    The way to profit from gluts and squeezes is to warehouse products. Warehousing perishable products is much harder. If you store the products in containers, it's easier to ship them when there's a squeeze, and you're also warehousing containers ;) Of course, the more people who buy the glut and sell the squeeze, the less of a glut and a squeeze there is.
    - bertjk 4y ago
      Of course, if you do warehouse products, and then try to take advantage of a squeeze, then you may get accused of price gouging.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]

I mean, I have probably loaded and driven heavier loads than you have. This analogy is about as strained as it gets.

by mwint 4y ago

I mean, I have probably loaded and driven heavier loads than you have. This analogy is about as strained as it gets.

Perhaps. It wasn't an analogy, but rather a vibrant reference to the concept of oscillation. Your original comment declares a simplistic version of "working" based around having reached one specific condition, while writing off the dynamic system behavior and other effects that occurred while getting to this point. Now, do we have reasons to be believe that this oscillation between shortage and surplus will grow or diminish? Will the next half-cycle of the oscillation create negative qualitative effects, even if it is ultimately diminishing? I'm not saying there are easy answers to those questions, but we're better off being able to ask them.

mwint 4y ago
Maybe we can ask a related question: How can we profit from these oscillations? If they're predictable, there should be an arbitrage opportunity.
- MrMan 4y ago
  I just bought a shipping container so I am doing my part
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
- heavenlyblue 4y ago
  How about you suggest an actual business plan than an abstract idea?
- losteric 4y ago
  Doesn't arbitrage reflect pricing inefficiency? What is inefficient in container pricing? I can certainly see opportunity to profit through stock market inefficiencies. Eg transportation stocks that were overpriced on supply chain FUD
- toast0 4y ago
  The way to profit from gluts and squeezes is to warehouse products. Warehousing perishable products is much harder. If you store the products in containers, it's easier to ship them when there's a squeeze, and you're also warehousing containers ;) Of course, the more people who buy the glut and sell the squeeze, the less of a glut and a squeeze there is.
  - bertjk 4y ago
    Of course, if you do warehouse products, and then try to take advantage of a squeeze, then you may get accused of price gouging.

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]