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It's possible we'll be back down to 7B people by the end of 2025 thanks to the food and fertilizer disruption that has already happened due to the war Ukraine.
by mikewarot 4y ago
It's possible we'll be back down to 7B people by the end of 2025 thanks to the food and fertilizer disruption that has already happened due to the war Ukraine.
We're approaching the downside slope of the carbon pulse that has been fueling mankind for the past 200 years. Things don't look good for the next decade for anyone.
I've watched too much Peter Zeihan and Nate Hagens to see anything other than that coming.
- lost_tourist 4y agoyou are grossly exaggerating the situation, barring nuclear war we'll be just fine for a while, jeesh.
- Petersipoi 4y agoYep. I don't think people realize how much damage hyperbole like this does. Each time one of these predictions don't pan out (which, come one, we'll all be able to laugh about this one in 2025) people take them less and less seriously.
- arise 4y agoIf by "we" you mean Americans with in-demand technical skills and 6-figure salaries, then yes, we'll be okay. North America has a great setup for internal good security. However, the rest of the world has to deal with losing 25% of cereals (from Russia and Ukraine) as well as the curtailment of rice imports from China, India, and Parisian. Similarly, the loss of Russia's and China's nitrogen, potassium, and potash exports cuts out ~20-30% of those resources, each of which is necessary to sustain post-industrial agricultural yields. This can easily cascade, for example, with Brazil and Latin American food exports drying up due to insufficient fertilizer input, or Saudi fertilizer output drying up due to regional insecurity or state collapse driven in part by high food prices. So yes, "we" will be fine. North Africa and the Middle East... not so much.
- lost_tourist 4y agoYou're moving the goalpost from what I said, but okay? I guess.
- kornhole 4y agoNot to mention the flooding of coastal cities and other land made uninhabitable and unproductive for farming as we have already hit some tipping points. Buckle up for some societal collapse.
- AnimalMuppet 4y agoThe GP mentioned 2025. Do you think we're going to see flooding of coastal cities by 2025? Land made uninhabitable by 2025? I for one am not buying that. Or are you just adding to the GP's list of woes, but not buying the time frame?
- kornhole 4y agoBased on what I see, my estimate is by 2030, but nobody really knows when we will see the first pulse.
- AnimalMuppet 4y agoCould you expand a bit on what you mean by "the first pulse"?
- kornhole 4y agoThat is the first significant rise of ocean level after hitting some tipping points that cause massive glacier break aways and ice melt. Kim Stanley Robinson depicted it in New York 2140 which describes life there after many of these pulses.
- AnimalMuppet 4y agoThank you. So, that happening by 2030 is actually a solid, measurable prediction. For the record, I'm cheering for you to be wrong...
- themihai 4y agoI don't think that's the case. If you look at the poorest countries in Africa where people are dying of starvation they still have the highest population increase.