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The original climate change predictions were pretty much on the mark even though they weren't complex models. The problem is usually the media rather than the

• colechristensen 4y ago
  Original? In the early 20th century global cooling and an end to the interglacial period of the ice age we’re still in was a prominent concern. By the way if we reset to the atmospheric conditions of a few hundred years ago this would be a certainty within a period of thousands of years at most. Much of the world’s population centers, agriculture, etc covered in hundreds of feet of ice.
  • veqz 4y ago
    That's not correct. We have had models showing global warming caused by fossil fuels since the late 18th Century at the very least. A few papers in the 1980s were predicting global cooling, but those have been shown to be erroneous – sometimes even by the very same authors.
• lzooz 4y ago
  >The original climate change predictions were pretty much on the mark even though they weren't complex models. No? It's 2022 and our cities should be sunk in the ocean and we should be boiling or frozen and there should be no drinkable water left and blah blah blah.
  • hedora 4y ago
    Here’s a scan of the earliest projections I know of (1982), from the American Petroleum Institute: https://insideclimatenews.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/AQ-9-Task-Force-Meeting-1980.pdf https://insideclimatenews.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/AQ-... They predicted 1C in 2005, and 2.5C in 2038. We are right on schedule. They also predict global economic growth to halt in 2025 due to climate change impacts. That’s plausible, given recent years’ industrial and agricultural climate disasters. However, on that metric, we’re probably a bit behind schedule. Five years, maybe?
    • refurb 4y ago
      Taking a thousand projections and cherry picking the ones that were right isnt science.
      • mensetmanusman 4y ago
        real time p-hacking
  • jemmyw 4y ago
    When I mention journalistic sensationalism it was a criticism, not a challenge.