2 ms·
Predicted at least as far back as 2007 > Despite these early warnings about likely future nonlinear rapid response, IPCC continues, at least implicitly, to ass
by david_allison 4y ago
Predicted at least as far back as 2007
> Despite these early warnings about likely future nonlinear rapid response, IPCC continues, at least implicitly, to assume a linear response to BAU [business-as-usual: 3°C] forcings.
Yet BAU forcings exceed by far any forcings in recent palaeoclimate history.
> Part of the explanation for the inconsistency between palaeoclimate data and IPCC projections lies in the fact that existing ice sheet models are missing realistic (if any) representation of the physics of ice streams and icequakes, processes that are needed to obtain realistic nonlinear behaviour.
Hansen James, Sato Makiko, Kharecha Pushker, Russell Gary, Lea David W and Siddall Mark 2007 Climate change and trace gases
Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A.3651925–1954
http://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2007.2052 http://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2007.2052
[PDF] https://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2007/2007_Hansen_ha02210k.pdf https://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2007/2007_Hansen_ha02210k.pd...