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I remember Warren Buffet explaining that his top two analysts that basically run BH struggle to beat the S&P 500. Then I read all these comments confidently pre

I remember Warren Buffet explaining that his top two analysts that basically run BH struggle to beat the S&P 500. Then I read all these comments confidently predicting the movement one way or the other of this very volatile asset, whose behavior is inextricably related to the movement of the larger economy. I guess it’s a good thing to pretend you can predict since you have a 50% chance of being right.

FredPret 4y ago
One thing to note about Warren Buffett: He has a massive pile of money. That makes getting a great return hard - every investment opportunity has a saturation limit. You can invest a million dollars in a local McDonalds, but not a billion or a trillion. This makes finding a good job for every one of his many dollars impossible. A theoretical super-investor who can buy the entire market will eventually get average returns, since they own everything. Warren Buffett also said that if his pot was only a million dollars, he'd be able to generate 50% + annual returns by following his value investment strategy, for the inverse of the reasons outlined above.
- scotty79 4y ago
  I think Warren Buffett success of last few decades is mostly thanks to the market following him, not the other way around. Once he dies his business will tank because there's no secret sauce. Just the name of the man himself.
  - FredPret 4y ago
    I do regular value stock searches. Do you know what comes up frequently? BRK-A and BRK-B. Despite his decades-long track record; despite the monster profits regularly posted; despite book after book about him; his business is still undervalued. Perhaps it is because he invests in unsexy things like chewing gum, insurance, furniture, and candy. (he has lately taken a stake in Apple, but that's the flashiest thing he's ever bought.)
- moistly 4y ago
  >. That makes getting a great return hard - every investment opportunity has a saturation limit. You can invest a million dollars in a local McDonalds, but not a billion or a trillion. My theory is that there is more money sloshing around, than there are good investment opportunities. Which is why we see so much money being pissed away on highly speculative gambles. The ultra-wealthy weirdos out there, so addicted to seeing their numbers rise, would rather risk losing it all on the 20% chance that they will “win”, than put their unfathomable wealth into providing clean water to third-world villages.

FredPret 4y ago

One thing to note about Warren Buffett: He has a massive pile of money. That makes getting a great return hard - every investment opportunity has a saturation limit. You can invest a million dollars in a local McDonalds, but not a billion or a trillion. This makes finding a good job for every one of his many dollars impossible. A theoretical super-investor who can buy the entire market will eventually get average returns, since they own everything. Warren Buffett also said that if his pot was only a million dollars, he'd be able to generate 50% + annual returns by following his value investment strategy, for the inverse of the reasons outlined above.

scotty79 4y ago
I think Warren Buffett success of last few decades is mostly thanks to the market following him, not the other way around. Once he dies his business will tank because there's no secret sauce. Just the name of the man himself.
- FredPret 4y ago
  I do regular value stock searches. Do you know what comes up frequently? BRK-A and BRK-B. Despite his decades-long track record; despite the monster profits regularly posted; despite book after book about him; his business is still undervalued. Perhaps it is because he invests in unsexy things like chewing gum, insurance, furniture, and candy. (he has lately taken a stake in Apple, but that's the flashiest thing he's ever bought.)
moistly 4y ago
>. That makes getting a great return hard - every investment opportunity has a saturation limit. You can invest a million dollars in a local McDonalds, but not a billion or a trillion. My theory is that there is more money sloshing around, than there are good investment opportunities. Which is why we see so much money being pissed away on highly speculative gambles. The ultra-wealthy weirdos out there, so addicted to seeing their numbers rise, would rather risk losing it all on the 20% chance that they will “win”, than put their unfathomable wealth into providing clean water to third-world villages.