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The potential downside for Russia to blow up the Nordstream pipelines is: it would require some investment to repair the pipeline in the event Russian-German re
by j0057 4y ago
The potential downside for Russia to blow up the Nordstream pipelines is: it would require some investment to repair the pipeline in the event Russian-German relations would improve, Germany's security outlook on purchasing Russian gas would flip 180 degrees and there would be peace in Ukraine. In other words, pipeline or not, Russia won't be selling gas to Germany anytime soon, so there's really not a lot of downside to blowing up a useless pipeline. And it's easy to deny too, as you and others point out: why would Russia blow up their own pipeline?
Here's why: the upside for Russia is getting European NATO countries to point fingers at each other, accusing Poland or USA or Great Britain of (nearly) violating Denmark's territorial integrity. Creating distrust inside NATO is a pretty useful strategic result!
The line of 'why would Russia blow up their own pipeline' is terribly simple-minded.
- vasac 4y agoWhy stop there? Maybe Martians blew it as now humans are pointing fingers at each other which is a pretty useful strategic result.
- fuoqi 4y agoYou are forgetting that repairing the pipelines is not easy and longer they stay in sea water, less likely it can be done reliably due to corrosion. Also secretly blowing up a pipeline in effectively NATOs backwater is easier said than done for Russia (remember the Nordic countries blaming Russian subs for suspicious sonar readings?), meanwhile for UK/US it's much easier.
- bink 4y agoAre there not valves along the pipeline to seal off sections? I've done some small amount of work on above ground gas pipelines and I feel like the majority of the pipeline would be undamaged, assuming the valves were closed in a reasonable time.
- fuoqi 4y agoI never heard about such valves in underwater pipelines. How would they be powered? It's possible that they could have reverse sumps, so water would flood only one section and the rest will be protected by residual pressure, but I do not know if NS/NS2 have anything like this.
- lostlogin 4y agoIt also means that a Putin replacement can’t easily put things back how they were. The side of this that is most opaque is the Russian one. *it was never going to be easy, but it’s harder now.
- kneel 4y agoThis is incredible mental gymnastics. Occam's razor provides a better explanation, the West did it because it handicaps a rival power.
- j0057 4y agoYou can call it mental gymnastics, but I just call it thinking. I notice you're not really engaging with the point, which is that yes, Russia attacked its own infrastructure, and that hurts their own interests, but the effects of the attack – 1) creating more uncertainty on the European energy market on the day a Norwegian pipeline opened; 2) creating a sense of insecurity in the states around the Baltic sea; and 3) creating distrust between NATO members – are all worth the price to the Russians, because they are losing their war. One moment we're discussing nuclear warfare and mutually assured destruction, and the next we're not considering Russia blowing up some of their own infrastructure. Compared to M.A.D., blowing up a pipeline seems like a pretty cheap deal if it would benefit the Russian war effort. So, let's do some more thinking. What would USA have to benefit from attacking the pipeline between Russia and Germany? A higher price for their LNG, so more money from Europe (economically weakening their ally), and if it would come out that USA did it, it would lead to severe fractures in NATO — not at all to the USA's benefit. And how, if the USA did it, would it have increased Russia's inability to sell gas to Europe? The flow was already zero, with no prospect of it returning anytime soon, sabotage or not. According to you, the USA sabotaged an ally, at the risk of ending NATO, at almost no detriment to Russia, for some increased LNG sales money. That, I would call mental gymnastics.
- kneel 4y agoThe US has literally blown up Russian pipelines in the past to prevent influence in Europe. https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/2004/02/27/reagan-approved-plan-to-sabotage-soviets/a9184eff-47fd-402e-beb2-63970851e130/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/2004/02/27/r... Very doubtful this is some sort of 8d chess game by the Russians.
- j0057 4y ago