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Commodity traders and investors are very networked and really like such immediate usage news. Many firms also count trucks/traffic near sites etc. so it isn't s

by veqq 4y ago

Commodity traders and investors are very networked and really like such immediate usage news. Many firms also count trucks/traffic near sites etc. so it isn't surprising to see people respond to this. However, the causation is unclear to me. European gas stocks are at full capacity as is and this Winter is warm with minimal gas burned so far. A 7% drop is par for course in the last few weeks. An extra piece of bad news wouldn't necessarily lead to this - though it could perhaps amplify it to some extent. You'd have to compare message posting time, look at the views/readership of that tweet etc. That said, this is relatively straight forward and included in many sentiment analysis engines.

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
kmonsen 4y ago
From what I have heard the fact that European gas storage is full is nice but not really all that meaningful. The gas storage is only large enough to last a week or something in that magnitude.
- sveme 4y ago
  The German storage facilities hold gas for two months of typical January consumption rates.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  - cf141q5325 4y ago
    Ownership of that gas is however unclear https://www.focus.de/politik/deutschland/trotz-voller-speicher-regierung-weiss-nicht-wie-viel-gas-deutschland-zur-verfuegung-steht_id_157377763.html https://www.focus.de/politik/deutschland/trotz-voller-speich...
    - stjohnswarts 4y ago
      in a national emergency situation can't the government just take it and pay fair market value despite who owns it?
      - wumpus 4y ago
        The German government has already taken action several times during this crisis.
    - nosianu 4y ago
      (For non German speakers: that linked article's main point is that the gas in German storage may be sent to other European countries, it's not all reserved for the German market.) As a German, I'm perfectly fine with the reserves serving Europe and not just Germany. Even if/when we run low and have to suffer a bit. After all, we expect the same from others, that they help us out if they have some and we don't. Energy markets in Europe are connected, for electricity too. A picture: https://old.reddit.com/r/hardenergy/comments/2d4sgy/natural_gas_pipeline_network_of_europe_xpost/ https://old.reddit.com/r/hardenergy/comments/2d4sgy/natural_...
- cube2222 4y ago
  The EU gas storage is actually around 2 months. Full capacity is ~1000TWh[0], while winter monthly consumption is around 450 TWh[1]. In other words, way more than a week, and yes, the storage does make a meaningful difference. [0]: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1294025/quarterly-gas-in-storage-in-the-european-union/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1294025/quarterly-gas-in... [1]: https://energy.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2022-04/Quarterly%20report%20on%20European%20gas%20markets_Q4%202021.pdf https://energy.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2022-04/Quarterly%2...
- michaelt 4y ago
  Perhaps you're thinking of the UK? The UK only has the gas storage capacity for nine days of gas. Some other European countries have enough gas storage for months - the Netherlands has 123 days of gas stored [1] [1] https://www.energylivenews.com/2022/10/31/uk-has-nine-days-of-gas-storage-warns-centrica/ https://www.energylivenews.com/2022/10/31/uk-has-nine-days-o...
ThalesX 4y ago
> this Winter is warm with minimal gas burned so far I feel like I'm going crazy as this is not the first time I've seen / heard this argument. What does winter mean? I thought it was the months from December to February. I don't understand the narrative that we're in a warm winter at all. Winter, just like Game of Thrones, is coming.
- jonasdegendt 4y ago
  People are just throwing fall and winter together, but it has been an incredibly mild fall so far and that’s definitely been suppressing gas prices. We’re pretty much mid November and I haven’t even turned on my heating, it’s crazy.
  - ThalesX 4y ago
    Just a couple of months ago (2?) there was an article on Hacker News about the arctic vortex falling apart making for an unusually hot autumn and a very bad winter. I don’t know how it’s going to pan out but where I am from, yesterday was basically late spring and today is very cold.
    - dividedbyzero 4y ago
      Could it have been this? https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32985927 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32985927
- throwaway932489 4y ago
  Wikipedia has an interesting note "Cultural influences such as Christmas creep may have led to the winter season being perceived as beginning earlier in recent years" I think I've always considered November to be winter, and at some point I picked up that Christmas is in the middle/even towards the end to break it up and give everyone something to look forward to, so I'm always a bit surprised seeing talk of winter in the future tense once I've put on the winter duvet/started wearing a coat all the time/turned on the central heating (not this year). Equally anything in Feb seems firmly Spring. But I'm not trying to force this on anyone!

by veqq 4y ago

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

kmonsen 4y ago

From what I have heard the fact that European gas storage is full is nice but not really all that meaningful. The gas storage is only large enough to last a week or something in that magnitude.

sveme 4y ago
The German storage facilities hold gas for two months of typical January consumption rates.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- cf141q5325 4y ago
  Ownership of that gas is however unclear https://www.focus.de/politik/deutschland/trotz-voller-speicher-regierung-weiss-nicht-wie-viel-gas-deutschland-zur-verfuegung-steht_id_157377763.html https://www.focus.de/politik/deutschland/trotz-voller-speich...
  - stjohnswarts 4y ago
    in a national emergency situation can't the government just take it and pay fair market value despite who owns it?
    - wumpus 4y ago
      The German government has already taken action several times during this crisis.
  - nosianu 4y ago
    (For non German speakers: that linked article's main point is that the gas in German storage may be sent to other European countries, it's not all reserved for the German market.) As a German, I'm perfectly fine with the reserves serving Europe and not just Germany. Even if/when we run low and have to suffer a bit. After all, we expect the same from others, that they help us out if they have some and we don't. Energy markets in Europe are connected, for electricity too. A picture: https://old.reddit.com/r/hardenergy/comments/2d4sgy/natural_gas_pipeline_network_of_europe_xpost/ https://old.reddit.com/r/hardenergy/comments/2d4sgy/natural_...
cube2222 4y ago
The EU gas storage is actually around 2 months. Full capacity is ~1000TWh[0], while winter monthly consumption is around 450 TWh[1]. In other words, way more than a week, and yes, the storage does make a meaningful difference. [0]: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1294025/quarterly-gas-in-storage-in-the-european-union/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1294025/quarterly-gas-in... [1]: https://energy.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2022-04/Quarterly%20report%20on%20European%20gas%20markets_Q4%202021.pdf https://energy.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2022-04/Quarterly%2...
michaelt 4y ago
Perhaps you're thinking of the UK? The UK only has the gas storage capacity for nine days of gas. Some other European countries have enough gas storage for months - the Netherlands has 123 days of gas stored [1] [1] https://www.energylivenews.com/2022/10/31/uk-has-nine-days-of-gas-storage-warns-centrica/ https://www.energylivenews.com/2022/10/31/uk-has-nine-days-o...

ThalesX 4y ago

> this Winter is warm with minimal gas burned so far I feel like I'm going crazy as this is not the first time I've seen / heard this argument. What does winter mean? I thought it was the months from December to February. I don't understand the narrative that we're in a warm winter at all. Winter, just like Game of Thrones, is coming.

jonasdegendt 4y ago
People are just throwing fall and winter together, but it has been an incredibly mild fall so far and that’s definitely been suppressing gas prices. We’re pretty much mid November and I haven’t even turned on my heating, it’s crazy.
- ThalesX 4y ago
  Just a couple of months ago (2?) there was an article on Hacker News about the arctic vortex falling apart making for an unusually hot autumn and a very bad winter. I don’t know how it’s going to pan out but where I am from, yesterday was basically late spring and today is very cold.
  - dividedbyzero 4y ago
    Could it have been this? https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32985927 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32985927
throwaway932489 4y ago
Wikipedia has an interesting note "Cultural influences such as Christmas creep may have led to the winter season being perceived as beginning earlier in recent years" I think I've always considered November to be winter, and at some point I picked up that Christmas is in the middle/even towards the end to break it up and give everyone something to look forward to, so I'm always a bit surprised seeing talk of winter in the future tense once I've put on the winter duvet/started wearing a coat all the time/turned on the central heating (not this year). Equally anything in Feb seems firmly Spring. But I'm not trying to force this on anyone!