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> Zuck spending $4b/quarter on the Metaverse entirely unproven, something any lean startup VC would know is a terrible idea I'm skeptical of the Metaverse, but

> Zuck spending $4b/quarter on the Metaverse entirely unproven, something any lean startup VC would know is a terrible idea I'm skeptical of the Metaverse, but everything is unproven until someone proves it. Does every lean startup VC know what the future of computing looks like? If they don't, I have no idea how they would know that the Metaverse is a terrible idea.

tootie 4y ago
Most startups don't get a $10B leash. You need to gain some amount of traction and revenue to get investment. And not just money, they are spending credibility. No one would be paying any attention to this if Zuck weren't pushing so hard.
Kiro 4y ago
I thought that was the whole point of the article, that "any X would know" is actually just "any [person not smarter than you] would know".
- amadeuspagel 4y ago
  No one knows what the future of computing looks like. Again, I'm skeptical of VR and the metaverse. But I don't know.
dylan604 4y ago
>I have no idea how they would know that the Metaverse is a terrible idea You look at the track record of the people building the new thing to see what their other creations will be like. If you've seen a Picasso, Pollock, Dali, Rembrandt, you know what their other works will be like. If you see a thing created by Zuck, you know what it will be like in the same manner. Also, have you seen the demos? ZZZZZZ
- amadeuspagel 4y ago
  So the metaverse is going to have 2 billion users as well, like Zuck's first creation?
  - dylan604 4y ago
    The key to that users number is how many new users are being added, how many of those users are active, and how many are bots. From my read of the social interwebs, the growth rate with the newer generations is not impressive and the number of people drastically reducing their use is not getting smaller
wintermutestwin 4y ago
The "metaverse" is not inherently a terrible idea. A Metaverse that is brought to us by FaceCrook is inherently a terrible idea. Why? Well, if we look to the Crossing the Chasm model, it suggests that any truly novel tech requires a cadre of eager early adopters. These early adopters are tech aficionados. What percentage of techies despise FB? I'd guess an extreme majority. Even those VR lusting techies who do buy a meta product hold their nose while they do it.
- amadeuspagel 4y ago
  > What percentage of techies despise FB? I have no idea, but I'd caution you against extrapolating from this forum and people you know. Maybe you live in a bubble. (We all do.) Facebook and WhatsApp have two billion users. Many of those are probably techies.
kibwen 4y ago
> I have no idea how they would know that the Metaverse is a terrible idea. Metaverses are a great idea. We've had metaverses for decades. A metaverse is just a virtual location where pseudonymous users can interact in a persistent space. Even HN is a metaverse. What we don't need is an all-encompassing VR metaverse. And no, I'm not saying that VR is useless. VR will find its place. It's in Zuck's own interest to try to conflate "VR" and "metaverse" together into "capital-M Metaverse", in a vain attempt to frame himself as the visionary Tim Berners-Lee of the century while simultaneously capturing all the value of VR gaming via Facebook's walled gardens. Don't fall for it.
- amadeuspagel 4y ago
  Interesting definition, but I think most people talking about virtual reality or the metaverse mean something like a 3D space that people move around in with avatars, and that seems to be what meta is working on, and what most people, including me, are skeptical of.
  - kibwen 4y ago
    > something like a 3D space that people move around in with avatars Once again, we have those metaverses: MMOs. Anyone suggesting that every MMO of the future must be first-person, merely to reap the benefits of being in VR, will first need to explain why fewer than 100% of the video games of the past 20 years have been first-person. VR just isn't a fit for enormous categories of experiences.

tootie 4y ago

Most startups don't get a $10B leash. You need to gain some amount of traction and revenue to get investment. And not just money, they are spending credibility. No one would be paying any attention to this if Zuck weren't pushing so hard.

Kiro 4y ago

I thought that was the whole point of the article, that "any X would know" is actually just "any [person not smarter than you] would know".

amadeuspagel 4y ago
No one knows what the future of computing looks like. Again, I'm skeptical of VR and the metaverse. But I don't know.

dylan604 4y ago

>I have no idea how they would know that the Metaverse is a terrible idea You look at the track record of the people building the new thing to see what their other creations will be like. If you've seen a Picasso, Pollock, Dali, Rembrandt, you know what their other works will be like. If you see a thing created by Zuck, you know what it will be like in the same manner. Also, have you seen the demos? ZZZZZZ

amadeuspagel 4y ago
So the metaverse is going to have 2 billion users as well, like Zuck's first creation?
- dylan604 4y ago
  The key to that users number is how many new users are being added, how many of those users are active, and how many are bots. From my read of the social interwebs, the growth rate with the newer generations is not impressive and the number of people drastically reducing their use is not getting smaller

wintermutestwin 4y ago

The "metaverse" is not inherently a terrible idea. A Metaverse that is brought to us by FaceCrook is inherently a terrible idea. Why? Well, if we look to the Crossing the Chasm model, it suggests that any truly novel tech requires a cadre of eager early adopters. These early adopters are tech aficionados. What percentage of techies despise FB? I'd guess an extreme majority. Even those VR lusting techies who do buy a meta product hold their nose while they do it.

amadeuspagel 4y ago
> What percentage of techies despise FB? I have no idea, but I'd caution you against extrapolating from this forum and people you know. Maybe you live in a bubble. (We all do.) Facebook and WhatsApp have two billion users. Many of those are probably techies.

kibwen 4y ago

> I have no idea how they would know that the Metaverse is a terrible idea. Metaverses are a great idea. We've had metaverses for decades. A metaverse is just a virtual location where pseudonymous users can interact in a persistent space. Even HN is a metaverse. What we don't need is an all-encompassing VR metaverse. And no, I'm not saying that VR is useless. VR will find its place. It's in Zuck's own interest to try to conflate "VR" and "metaverse" together into "capital-M Metaverse", in a vain attempt to frame himself as the visionary Tim Berners-Lee of the century while simultaneously capturing all the value of VR gaming via Facebook's walled gardens. Don't fall for it.

amadeuspagel 4y ago
Interesting definition, but I think most people talking about virtual reality or the metaverse mean something like a 3D space that people move around in with avatars, and that seems to be what meta is working on, and what most people, including me, are skeptical of.
- kibwen 4y ago
  > something like a 3D space that people move around in with avatars Once again, we have those metaverses: MMOs. Anyone suggesting that every MMO of the future must be first-person, merely to reap the benefits of being in VR, will first need to explain why fewer than 100% of the video games of the past 20 years have been first-person. VR just isn't a fit for enormous categories of experiences.